With all of the analytics breakdowns that are done in sports, ones that FF Mastermind has been out in front of have been targets for receivers and red zone production. Everyone has glommed on to the first of those in recent years – you can’t catch passes if you don’t get targeted and if you don’t catch enough passes when you are targeted, those opportunities dry up in a hurry. Yet, few have jumped on the red zone bandwagon. The simple reality is that most touchdowns aren’t of the 50-yard variety, they’re scored by guys making plays in the red zone.

For our purposes, there are two red zones – one for passing and one for rushing. When it comes to passing, the traditional red zone of the opponent 20-yard line is in play. Any time a quarterback drops to pass from the 20-yard line in, a realistic expectation of scoring a touchdown can be planned upon. Every one of those play calls includes at least one receiver running a route into the end zone. When it comes to rushing, there is a different standard. A handoff from the 18-yard line can’t realistically be expected to pop for a touchdown. As such, when it comes to rushing, we move the red zone number down to the 5-yard line. Any carry from the 5-yard line or closer is expected to go for a touchdown because that’s why it was called.

Here is a breakdown of the players who had the most red zone opportunities in 2017 as well as over the last three years and what those numbers realistically tell us about those players – who are the kings of the red zone and who just don’t cut it.

 

 

Ben Roethlisberger 90-47-307-21-1

Tom Brady 89-55-362-26-0

Drew Brees 81-56-308-17-1

Jared Goff 80-45-336-23-0

Matthew Stafford 78-39-232-16-0

Matt Ryan 75-36-271-15-2

Joe Flacco 75-39-175-13-0

Russell Wilson 71-39-278-22-2

Alex Smith 71-33-207-13-0

Philip Rivers 70-36-241-15-1

Kirk Cousins 68-36-268-17-3

Cam Newton 62-30-211-13-1

Dak Prescott 61-33-241-16-3

Blake Bortles 60-32-250-18-0

Carson Wentz 59-38-297-24-0

Tyrod Taylor 58-30-166-11-2

Andy Dalton 57-30-194-18-1

Case Keenum 52-33-233-17-0

Jay Cutler 52-31-201-15-2

Trevor Siemian 50-28-173-9-0

Marcus Mariota 49-24-186-6-0

Eli Manning 48-28-209-14-0

Derek Carr 47-24-127-12-1

Jimmy Garoppolo 45-25-152-7-1

Jameis Winston 44-22-203-12-0

DeShone Kizer 42-14-105-8-6

Jacoby Brissett 42-13-98-5-1

Josh McCown 41-23-148-8-0

Carson Palmer 38-19-133-7-1

Aaron Rodgers 36-23-147-12-0

Brett Hundley 30-16-105-4-3

Mitchell Trubisky 29-14-77-5-2

Tom Savage 29-8-30-2-2

Ryan Fitzpatrick 28-14-97-6-0

Brian Hoyer 28-15-90-4-0

Deshaun Watson 26-15-110-13-2

 

• Brady is still the man regardless of who surrounds him
• Goff made a meteoric rise in his red zone efficiency
• Brees had other options in the red zone last year and it showed
• Ryan was far from dominant when the Falcons got close
• Cousins and Prescott left too many points on the field
• Newton is not a dominant red zone player
• Wentz was as dominant as anyone despite playing in 13 games
• Bortles was surprisingly strong in the red zone
• Dalton got more RZTDs that most would expect
• Keenum was protective of the ball and completed a lot of RZ passes
• Mariota stunk in the red zone
• Kizer is hot garbage
• Rodgers was off to a torrid pace before his Week 5 injury

 

 

Drew Brees 273-186-1,085-65-6

Philip Rivers 250-132-993-61-5

Matt Ryan 246-143-881-65-4

Aaron Rodgers 244-143-881-65-4

Matthew Stafford 241-144-912-60-3

Tom Brady 240-155-1,083-74-4

Kirk Cousins 239-127-889-53-5

Blake Bortles 226-125-900-64-4

Ben Roethlisberger 217-118-790-52-3

Russell Wilson 208-106-847-54-5

Alex Smith 206-106-637-38-4

Eli Manning 204-116-832-52-7

Carson Palmer 204-106-828-51-6

Joe Flacco 201-116-702-37-5

Cam Newton 195-98-774-49-4

Derek Carr 195-96-663-48-4

Jameis Winston 193-92-778-48-2

Andy Dalton 191-102-765-50-5

Marcus Mariota 153-89-713-41-0

Carson Wentz 149-83-569-37-1

Tyrod Taylor 145-80-532-29-3

Jay Cutler 141-75-518-30-4

Sam Bradford 140-87-585-28-4

Ryan Tannehill 121-67-485-26-3

Brock Osweiler 119-59-425-20-3

Dak Prescott 117-66-523-32-4

Trevor Siemian 114-63-394-19-2

Brian Hoyer 107-55-389-23-0

Andrew Luck 105-69-429-31-1

Josh McCown 101-56-360-21-0

Case Keenum 99-54-389-24-1

Jared Goff 96-52-381-27-1

Colin Kaepernick 70-36-279-16-0

Nick Foles 66-31-217-10-2

Blaine Gabbert 63-37-280-13-1

 

• The veteran guys like Brees, Rivers, Ryan, and Brady still dominate here
• Stafford is extremely efficient with the ball in the red zone
• Brady is the man when it comes to finishing RZ drives
• Bortles is shockingly good in the red zone
• Smith is what he is – a conservative QB who doesn’t finish drives with TDs
• Flacco sucks
• Newton doesn’t depend on his arm in the red zone
• Mariota does not give away interceptions in the red zone
• Carr is a good QB, but not elite – especially in close
• If he comes back healthy, Luck could be scary because he’s good in the RZ
• Dallas doesn’t like to throw in the red zone – good for Zeke, bad for Dak

 

 

DeShone Kizer 8-3-5

Tyrod Taylor 5-8-3

Cam Newton 5-7-3

Josh McCown 4-4-4

Mitchell Trubisky 4-10-2

Kirk Cousins 4-6-2

Philip Rivers 4-(-6)-0

Eli Manning 4-(-7)-0

Dak Prescott 3-8-2

Jacoby Brissett 3-6-2

Russell Wilson 3-3-2

Jameis Winston 3-1-1

 

 

Cam Newton 24-51-16

Tyrod Taylor 14-3-4

Kirk Cousins 10-11-7

Jameis Winston 10-21-6

Tom Brady 10-0-3

DeShone Kizwer 8-3-5

Eli Manning 8-(-11)-0

Andy Dalton 7-9-6

Dak Prescott 7-15-5

Joe Flacco 7-9-5

Blake Bortles 7-5-5

Russell Wilson 6-6-3

Matthew Stafford 6-4-2

Alex Smith 5-11-4

Drew Brees 5-5-4

Carson Wentz 5-8-2

Philip Rivers 5-(-3)-0

 

• Newton is head and shoulders the only legitimate RZ rush threat
• McCown led the NFL is QB RZTDs last year? Who knew?
• Brady is overrated as an automatic touchdown from the 1-yard line
• Manning are Rivers are glaciers that give you nothing in the red zone
• Cousins is surprisingly productive with his legs in the RZ
• Dalton is as sneaky a RZ runner as he is a RZ passer
• Brees isn’t afraid to do a QB sneak from in close
• Wilson isn’t nearly as deadly in the RZ with his legs than thought to be
• Winston took a huge step back as a RZ rush threat in 2017
• Kizer is much better running in the red zone than he is throwing
• Taylor has something to offer in close and could be a Wildcat guy

 

 

 

 

 

Todd Gurley 22-27-10

Carlos Hyde 18-7-6

Mark Ingram 16-18-8

Jonathan Stewart 15-15-5

Devonta Freeman 15-9-6

Melvin Gordon 14-2-5

Latavius Murray 13-8-6

Leonard Fournette 12-15-7

Ezekiel Elliott 12-15-4

LeSean McCoy 12-4-2

C.J. Anderson 11-9-2

LeGarrette Blount 11-0-1

LeVeon Bell 10-12-7

Marshawn Lynch 10-14-4

Kareem Hunt 9-15-5

Jordan Howard 9-20-4

Peyton Barber 9-7-3

Bilal Powell 9-2-3

Javorious Allen 9-5-2

Chris Ivory 9-9-1

Mike Gillislee 8-6-5

Jamaal Williams 8-8-4

Tevin Coleman 8-15-3

DeMarco Murray 7-9-4

Rex Burkhead 7-8-4

Rob Kelley 7-4-3

Orleans Darkwa 7-4-3

Joe Mixon 7-10-2

Derrick Henry 7-4-1

Dion Lewis 6-12-3

Lamar Miller 6-10-3

Jerick McKinnon 6-8-2

Thomas Rawls 6-(-8)-0

 

• Gurley was as dominant as any RZ running back in recent years
• Hyde got a ton of chances, but didn’t cash in nearly enough
• In close, Ingram dominates over Alvin Kamara
• Freeman gets twice as many chance than Coleman in Atlanta
• Gordon left a lot of points on the field for fantasy owners in close
• Fournette could be the biggest closer in the RZ moving forward
• Blount fell off the planet after a giant season in New England
• Bell didn’t get a lot of chances, but the made the most of those he got
• Anderson struggled badly in the red zone, which may have led to his release
• Beast Mode has an on/off switch
• Hunt was surprisingly stout in close as a rusher
• Ivory stunk in the red zone and got bounced as a goal line guy by Fournette
• Gillislee is a dangerous man in close
• Murray isn’t a dominant goal line runner and hasn’t been for a while
• Henry is worse than Murray, which didn’t help Tennessee at all last year
• New England’s top three RBs from last year combined for 12 RZTDs

 

 

LaGarrette Blount 52-56-19

Devonta Freeman 46-38-18

Jonathan Stewart 43-43-19

Todd Gurley 41-46-21

Latavius Murray 39-31-19

Melvin Gordon 36-15-14

Chris Ivory 36-33-9

Mark Ingram 35-46-14

David Johnson 34-48-17

DeMarco Murray 33-37-14

Jeremy Hill 32-41-15

LeSean McCoy 29-32-8

Matt Forte 28-35-9

Carlos Hyde 28-(-2)-10

Isaiah Crowell 26-25-7

Ezekiel Elliott 25-30-11

Doug Martin 25-28-11

C.J. Anderson 24-21-6

Ryan Matthews 23-22-11

Matt Asiata 23-22-6

LeVeon Bell 21-31-14

DeAngelo Williams 21-25-12

Lamar Miller 21-20-12

Tim Hightower 20-26-8

Frank Gore 20-19-6

Adrian Peterson 20-7-5

Jordan Howard 19-32-9

Mike Gillislee 18-32-12

Spencer Ware 18-24-8

Marshawn Lynch 18-24-7

Tevin Coleman 17-24-7

Rob Kelley 17-21-7

Javorius Allen 17-16-3

Thomas Rawls 16-0-4

Eddie Lacy 15-13-3

 

• 18 of the top 25 guys here have switched teams in the last three years
• Was Blount a one-year wonder in New England?
• Nobody scores more often than Gurley
• Ivory has never been a legitimate goal line threat despite a ton of chances
• McCoy is a sub-par goal line back who could have many more fantasy TDs
• Hyde gets taken down for a loss way too often in the red zone
• Johnson’s numbers would be dominant if he had played a full 2017 season
• Elliott isn’t as automatic from in close as many would lead you to believe
• Anderson has been a bum in the red zone his entire career
• Bell scored two of every three times he touches the ball in close
• Peterson is a liability in the RB red zone and has been for a while
• Gore isn’t much of a factor in close either
• If Howard gets more opportunities, his numbers will jump
• Gillislee is a silent red zone assassin
• Rawls and Lacy played their way out of starting due to bad RZ play

 

 

Alvin Kamara 17-14-94-4

LeVeon Bell 15-10-50-1

LeSean McCoy 15-9-58-2

Christian McCaffrey 13-11-61-4

Mark Ingram 12-10-22-0

Todd Gurley 11-6-52-4

James White 11-8-17-3

Carlos Hyde 11-9-57-0

Melvin Gordon 10-8-62-4

Tarik Cohen 10-7-40-1

Theo Riddick 9-7-31-2

Kareem Hunt 9-6-12-2

Ameer Abdullah 9-5-19-1

Charcandrick West 8-6-23-2

Devonta Freeman 8-5-61-1

Danny Woodhead 8-8-31-0

Dion Lewis 7-7-65-3

C.J. Anderson 7-7-53-1

Bilal Powell 7-4-4-0

Javorius Allen 6-5-22-2

Chris Thompson 6-3-26-2

Rex Burkhead 6-3-34-3

Kyle Juszczyk 6-6-42-1

Jerick McKinnon 6-4-23-1

Charles Sims 6-3-21-1

Lamar Miller 5-4-27-3

Giovani Bernard 5-4-25-1

Matt Forte 5-3-12-1

Davontae Booker 5-4-22-0

D.J. Foster 5-2-1-0

 

• Alvin!
• McCoy got a lot of touches, but is still brutal for TDs in the red zone
• Same goes for Bell
• McCaffrey has started to set a trend that get fantasy owners very interested
• Ingram got more RZ action than you would think given Kamara’s production
• Gurley tied for the league lead in receiving RZTD’s too?
• This is why James White is stashed on a roster in almost every league
• White did his part, but so did Lewis and Burkhead
• Hyde sucks as a RZ receiver as much or more than as a RZ rusher
• Johnson’s calling card is catching passes…just not in the red zone

 

 

Devonta Freeman 39-26-204-6

Theo Riddick 38-30-162-9

Mark Ingram 30-26-81-3

Danny Woodhead 27-20-132-7

Bilal Powell 27-19-100-3

LeVeon Bell 27-18-93-3

James White 28-18-113-10

LeSean McCoy 26-17-119-5

Charcandrick West 24-13-55-4

Chris Thompson 23-17-124-6

DeMarco Murray 23-17-94-5

David Johnson 23-13-109-5

Todd Gurley 23-15-109-4

Kyle Juszczyk 22-17-88-5

Ty Montgomery 21-13-70-2

Duke Johnson 21-11-41-2

Melvin Gordon 20-15-116-6

Matt Forte 19-12-72-4

Javorius Allen 19-14-95-3

Tevin Coleman 18-12-75-5

Carlos Hyde 18-15-110-3

Darren Sproles 18-8-45-1

Alvin Kamara 17-14-94-4

Shane Vereen 17-12-63-4

Ameer Abdullah 16-11-69-3

Charles Sims 16-9-76-3

Dion Lewis 15-13-108-1

Lamar Miller 15-11-85-5

Jerick McKinnon 15-13-102-4

Lamar Miller 15-11-85-5

Damien Williams 14-13-75-5

T.J. Yeldon 14-10-47-2

Giovani Bernard 14-12-77-1

Frank Gore 13-9-76-6

Christian McCaffrey 13-11-61-4

Travaris Cadet 13-9-55-4

Mike Tolbert 13-8-31-4

James Starks 13-10-72-3

 

• Riddick had a down year in 2017, but is deadly in the red zone
• Ingram doesn’t drop many passes in the red zone
• When healthy, Woodhead can do some damage near the goal line
• McCoy frustrates fantasy owners way too often in the red zone
• Duke Johnson has just two RZ receiving TDs in the last three years
• 10 TDs for Jimmy White – not too shabby
• Sproles is overrated as a fantasy red zone threat
• Coleman gets far fewer chances than Freeman, but scores a much higher rate
• Hyde comes up short too often no matter how you slice it
• What Kamara did in one year is far too impressive to ignore
• Miller doesn’t catch passes often in the red zone, but makes good often
• Bernard isn’t a big a receiving threat as he’s touted to be
• Gore doesn’t touch the ball often in the RZ, but scores often when he does

 

 

 

Jarvis Landry 24-18-85-9

Keenan Allen 24-11-81-4

Davante Adams 23-15-140-7

Cooper Kupp 23-13-122-5

Antonio Brown 21-12-72-6

Dez Bryant 21-11-66-5

Larry Fitzgerald 20-12-118-6

Julio Jones 20-5-33-1

DeAndre Hopkins 19-9-49-7

Nelson Agholor 18-13-63-4

Mike Evans 18-5-46-3

A.J. Green 17-7-72-6

Demaryius Thomas 17-10-78-5

Alshon Jeffery 16-8-68-7

Michael Thomas 16-9-51-5

Josh Doctson 16-5-42-4

Adam Thielen 16-5-39-2

JuJu Smith-Schuster 15-9-99-5

Devin Funchess 15-8-69-5

Marvin Jones 15-5-31-4

Stefon Diggs 14-12-108-7

Michael Crabtree 14-7-20-5

Jamison Crowder 14-7-49-3

Marquise Goodwin 14-5-50-1

Jordy Nelson 12-10-43-5

Mohamed Sanu 12-7-40-5

Brandin Cooks 12-8-42-4

Chris Hogan 12-6-38-4

Mike Wallace 12-3-23-3

Danny Amendola 12-10-54-2

DaVante Parker 12-5-27-1

Albert Wilson 11-7-53-2

Zay Jones 11-3-30-2

Eric Decker 11-8-61-1

Jaron Brown 11-6-38-1

Sterling Shepard 11-5-17-0

 

• For all his targets Allen and Philip Rivers didn’t hit pay dirt often
• Landry was shockingly effective as a red zone scorer
• Kupp made his rookie reputation in the red zone
• If Adams can do that with Brett Hundley, what he can do with Aaron Rodgers?
• Fitz is still a danger in close
• Julio sucks in the red zone – his only career failing
• When Hopkins gets his hands on a pass in the red zone, he typically scores
• Evans and Jameis Winston misfire with points on the line too often
• Green didn’t see many chances, but when he catches them, he scores
• Diggs was much more productive in the red zone than Thielen
• Smith-Schuster is almost as productive in the red zone as Antonio
• Crabtree remains dangerous inside the 10-yard line
• Sanu is a much better RZ option than Julio

 

 

Antonio Brown 60-38-248-18

Larry Fitzgerald 59-38-301-18

Davante Adams 59-35-274-17

DeAndre Hopkins 58-27-220-15

Demaryius Thomas 57-36-279-12

Jarvis Landry 56-37-212-14

Mike Evans 54-17-150-12

Julio Jones 53-23-156-8

Michael Crabtree 49-22-134-13

A.J. Green 47-25-225-15

Dez Bryant 47-21-188-13

Odell Beckham Jr. 46-27-193-13

Brandon Marshall 46-22-208-13

Eric Decker 44-22-156-13

Alshon Jeffery 44-18-179-12

Jordy Nelson 43-31-191-16

Golden Tate 43-27-126-9

Jamison Crowder 42-21-130-8

Marvin Jones 42-18-130-8

Doug Baldwin 41-26-238-16

Devin Funchess 41 16-170-13

Randall Cobb 41-24-131-11

Anquan Boldin 41-25-212-9

Allen Robinson 40-23-157-18

T.Y. Hilton 40-18-112-5

Emmanuel Sanders 39-18-131-8

Nelson Agholor 38-20-120-4

Allen Hurns 36-21-146-10

Seth Roberts 35-17-150-10

Michael Thomas 34-22-146-12

Stefon Diggs 34-26-185-9

Pierre Garcon 34-16-125-6

Brandon LaFell 34-16-106-6

Cole Beasley 33-21-132-14

Brandin Cooks 33-24-136-9

Mohamed Sanu 33-21-150-9

Jermaine Kearse 33-13-107-6

 

• Is there anything Antonio Brown doesn’t do a high level?
• Fitzgerald is one of the most dangerous RZ threats even at his age
• With Jordy Nelson, Adams could be the most dangerous RZ WR in the league
• Julio has stunk in the red zone for a long time
• Odell put up great numbers, especially since they were for just two seasons
• Nelson will make some noise in the red zone in Oakland
• Tate has more RZTDs in the last three years than the much bigger Jones
• When Funchess gets his hands on RZ passes, he’s money
• Baldwin doesn’t get the opportunities, but scores a ton of RZ touchdowns
• Hilton is a great receiver, but gets bottled up and controlled in the red zone
• Robinson is tied for the league lead in red zone touchdowns? Hello, Chicago
• Beasley isn’t a great fantasy wide receiver, but he’s a bad man in the red zone

 

 

 

 

Jimmy Graham 25-15-94-10

Rob Gronkowski 22-11-94-6

Travis Kelce 20-10-97-5

Zach Ertz 17-11-82-8

Kyle Rudolph 16-14-92-7

George Kittle 16-9-41-2

Cameron Brate 13-5-68-5

Jason Witten 13-8-86-4

Ben Watson 13-8-20-3

Eric Ebron 13-4-30-2

Hunter Henry 12-5-31-3

Jesse James 12-5-30-3

Delanie Walker 12-4-20-2

Evan Engram 11-7-64-6

Julius Thomas 11-5-43-3

Austin Sef-Jenkins 11-4-16-3

Antonio Gates 11-3-20-3

Jermaine Gresham 11-5-34-2

Charles Clay 11-5-19-2

Nick Boyle 11-6-35-0

Tyler Kroft 10-7-28-7

A.J. Derby 10-5-43-1

David Njoku 10-2-8-1

Marcedes Lewis 9-5-44-4

Jack Doyle 9-5-37-4

Austin Hooper 9-7-39-2

Vernon Davis 9-4-36-1

Demetrius Harris 9-2-16-1

Jared Cook 9-1-6-0

Gerald Everett 8-4-20-2

Stephen Anderson 8-1-4-1

Trey Burton 7-6-69-4

Darren Fells 7-3-28-2

 

• Hands off Jimmy! Don’t touch Jimmy!
• Ertz put up better numbers than Gronk or Kelce with fewer opportunities
• Kittle was a surprise entrant, but has yet to be a RZ scoring factor
• Rudolph has developed into a red zone giant
• If Brate catches a pass in the red zone, it’s a touchdown
• Ebron is grossly overrated (but we already knew that)
• Engram has quickly developed into Eli’s top red zone threat
• Boyle has a way to go be a complete tight end, especially in the red zone
• For all his talent, Delanie Walker was largely useless in the red zone in 2017
• Tyler Kroft took over the Tyler Eifert role last year with great success
• Davis and Cook are vastly overrated goal line receivers
• Burton got very little use, but made the most of it, which should help Chicago

 

 

Jimmy Graham 54-26-202-15

Kyle Rudolph 52-33-230-16

Travis Kelce 50-25-210-12

Rob Gronkowski 47-25-165-14

Antonio Gates 46-18-151-15

Delanie Walker 45-26-201-12

Jason Witten 44-28-236-9

Jordan Reed 43-28-220-17

Zach Ertz 41-22-159-13

Greg Olsen 40-21-165-6

Cameron Brate 37-21-213-16

Coby Fleener 33-20-127-6

Ben Watson 31-20-121-9

Hunter Henry 29-16-141-11

Gary Barnidge 29-13-117-10

Charles Clay 28-14-104-6

Jared Cook 28-10-61-1

Tyler Eifert 27-17-156-16

Julius Thomas 27-14-100-9

Eric Ebron 27-15-121-8

Jack Doyle 26-18-115-9

Jesse James 26-14-85-7

Jermaine Gresham 26-10-79-4

Martellus Bennett 24-16-109-8

Vernon Davis 24-12-74-2

Austin Sef-Jenkins 22-7-37-5

Zach Miller 20-12-98-8

Richard Rodgers 19-13-69-9

Marcedes Lewis 19-8-55-5

Josh Hill 19-10-65-4

C.J. Fiedorowicz 19-8-46-4

Jacob Tamme 18-12-102-4

Dwayne Allen 17-9-83-6

Vance McDonald 17-9-80-6

Clive Walford 17-4-28-4

Demetrius Harris 17-6-46-3

 

• If Reed ever stays healthy, he can be a killer in the red zone
• Kelce is great tight end, but does his best work outside the red zone
• Rudolph is very underrated, but is dominant in the red zone
• Brate has used the RZ to make a living
• Fleener has been overrated, especially with Andrew Luck and Drew Brees
• Cook and Davis have sucked for a long time in close
• Olsen is shocking underproductive in the RZ
• Between Gates and Henry, the Chargers used their TEs as much as anybody
• Of 17 red zone receptions in three years for Eifert, 16 of them were touchdowns
• Rodgers has been extremely productive in the red zone

 

End.