Hey there Colts’ fans! Here are my thoughts for this month from the Colts’ Corral:

The biggest story out of Indianapolis will continue to be the rehab (or lack thereof?) of QB Andrew Luck until such time as he returns to his previous level of performance. It has now been 15 months since his surgery and he has yet to throw a football, as he revealed in a press conference earlier this week. However this press conference was awfully short on any description of what "progress" looks like and where he is – and also noticeably devoid of any predictions or timetables. To me, this is a bid of a red flag. Perhaps Luck and the team have simply learned from the 2017 fiasco that it is best to under-promise and over-produce, rather than have to eat crow. Or perhaps the level of uncertainty really has been elevated and he might not be back again in 2018. The spectrum is vast, and there are a lot more "bads" on the continuum than there are "goods" at this time. Early drafters simply need to be very skeptical of Luck right now, but also on every other Colt fantasy player’s value for 2018 unless Luck is 100% by the time you draft.

While the team has been fairly minimal in their forays into free agency, they did add some depth. WR Ryan Grant (Redskins) signed a big deal with the Ravens and then failed a physical, and so he came here and signed a 1-year deal. Grant is a depth player and not really ideally a fulltime starter, but with only ER TY Hilton and WR Chester Rogers under contract at receiver, it was a really good signing of a solid player who has never missed a game in his four-year career. They also added veteran OL Matt Slausson. While not a huge impact signing, it is hoped that he can offer veteran stability to what is sure to be a young line with growing pains for the next few years. Ideally he will be a starter at guard, but can play all five positions on the line as needed in a pinch. The other new guy signed in the last month was former Eagles LB Najee Goode. Goode was primarily a special teamer in Philly for 5 seasons, but brings his familiarity with a championship locker room to Indy as he saw the team mature in his time there. Clearly, it is a position with a strong need for depth, so he will do no worse than aid there and on special teams. In many ways, it speaks volumes that HC Frank Reich brought only him over from the available Eagles free agents.

As to signing their own guys, all four of the players with restricted rights tenders have resigned with the team. None of the four are projected as likely starters (although OL John Vujnovich started a lot out of necessity in 2017), but all bring some continuity and depth. The bigger signings were the UFAs that they needed to retain. CB Pierre Desir and OL Jack Mewhort were brought back, and both are projected to start for the 2018 Colts. Obviously, it was a huge deal to being back PK Adam Vinatieri as the best offensive weapon on the team (sad, but true). I thought it was interesting that RB Christine Michael was extended as well, perhaps implying that maybe the job is not necessarily RB Marlon Mack’s to lose.

Looking ahead to the draft, it is commonly assumed that the Colts will get one of three players with the 6^th overall pick: RB Saquon Barkley, OL Quentin Nelson or DE Bradley Chubb. It is assumed that there will be three quarterbacks taken in the first five picks, and the Colts will simply take whichever of the three named players remains. If it really happens this way (and it likely will), then I would say that there is a high likelihood that this happens. My gut feeling is that it will be Quentin Nelson as the guy available to help protect Luck for many years to come. However, consider what happens if only two quarterbacks go in the top five…which is a very real possibility. Clearly the Jets are going that way after the trade with the Colts up to #3 – but a case could be made for any of the other picks to NOT be a passer, including BOTH of the Browns picks! Everyone assumes that the Browns are taking a quarterback at #1, but I truly believe that they might take Barkley at #1; it would be very believable to project Barkley at #1, Chubb to the Giants at #2, the Jets to take their franchise passer, then the Browns to take Nelson at #4 and the Broncos (or a trade partner) to take the second quarterback. Then what would the Colts do?

If all three of those guys are gone at #6, would the Colts trade down again? Clearly there would be at least one of the "Big Three" quarterbacks still on the board and someone in need could make them an offer to come up. That is a very real possibility….and if the Colts did not already have a young passer they like in Jacoby Brissett, then even they could be in the market for a quarterback if Luck is still iffy. (But if they take a quarterback in any round of this draft, I would be terrified as a Colts fan.). If they trade down, I do NOT see them accepting something like the Bills two first rounders for theirs; the 2018 draft is not deep in impact first round players, so they would likely ask for a current and a future first rounder, and maybe more as well

The real key to this draft will be to see what they do with the rest of the draft, especially in round two. After the trade with the Jets, they will now have three picks in the first half of day 2, picking 4^th, 5^th and 17^th in the second round. This is where GM Chris Ballard will have to make his name and build this team. If one of the potential lead running backs falls to there like LSU’s RB Derrick Guice, then I certainly believe he would be the choice. There are some underrated pass rushers that might be there as well, like Boston College’s LB Harold Landry who led the nation in sacks and forced fumbles as a junior in 2016 but suffered some injuries last year. If they do not take Chubb in the first round, I would bet that at least one of these top picks in round 2 is a pass rusher. They likely need to exit their first three picks with a starter on the O-line and a pass rusher, with another impact player and starter with the third one. If they do not take a running back early in round 2 (or miraculously snag Barkley in round 1), then it is a real good chance that one of the two Georgia backs goes to Indy with pick#17 in round 2. Both the multifaceted speedster RB Sony Michel or more powerful RB Nick Chubb could be a starter from day one for Indianapolis, most likely; personally I like Michel more and he is more durable, I believe.

The team definitely needs some receivers, and I would be surprised if they don’t get at least one in the middle-to-late rounds of this draft. The 3^rd and 4^th rounds seem to have a bunch of guys rated in that range, so that might be a good place to get value. WR Anthony Miller of Memphis had two straight monster seasons and might also provide starter potential from day one. The rest of the draft will be key to adding depth in the secondary and all throughout the defense, and likely will involve the drafting of at least a second offensive lineman, if not a third. The team has holes all over the roster at every position except kicking, quarterback and tight end….so no other position is truly out of the question.

I have a feeling that draft day will be the most interesting one we have had in Indianapolis in many years. There should be a lot to discuss in a few weeks -- even if the team just uses its nine selections and does not continue to wheel and deal in order to rebuild a weak roster.

That is all for this month from the Crossroads of America. I will be back after the draft to give my thoughts on the Colts’ 2018 rookie class, especially with regard to the fantasy prospects for them and the rest of the squad. Until then friends, remember to stay strong and use…..HORSEPOWER!!!!

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