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Indianapolis Colts March Scouting Report
Chris Rito
3/19/2018
Let it be officially known that I have no idea what the hell new GM Chris Ballard is doing this year. I don’t just have questions, I think we all demand some serious answers that are better than "trust me and have patience"
I know that he is a big believer in building the team through the draft, and I really do respect that mindset. However, this is a roster totally bereft of talent and the Colts have the 4th most money to spend in free agency this season as they sit over $60 million under the salary cap right now. And they have done ZERO to fix this situation. There were a plethora of proven players at positions of significant need, and that also were under 26 years of age so they could be solid building blocks. But every single one of those guys has already signed with other teams, leaving the Colts holding the bag. While OG Andrew Norwell would have been a worthy investment, his very high eventual price tag is an understandable "pass". But I really do not understand why there was not a more concerted effort to lure a guy like WR Allen Robinson to Indy, as he settled for a reasonable deal with a non-contender and a lesser quarterback situation (Chicago).
I saw the Colts spending a bunch of that capital on a proven O-line asset (or two), a frontline receiver (there were several on the market) and perhaps a defensive player for the back seven. I did not see a pass rushing force to be had in free agency, but the potential to draft DE Bradley Chubb at #3 overall meant that they could fill the other holes via their cap space and add that last piece high in the draft. Filling those other gaps, they even could then spend their first pick on a franchise-altering talent like RB Saquon Barkley and try to address O-line depth or the pass rush with a pick high in round 2.
However, this week the Colts pulled off a stunning move, acquiring two additional picks in the top 50 in exchange for moving back only three spots in April to #6 overall. With the expected trade taking a quarterback high, the very real possibility is that Chubb or Barkley could still be there at #6, or else the top offensive lineman in Notre Dame’s OG Quentin Nelson. Any of these three would be a great addition at the 6th pick, although drafting an interior lineman that high almost necessitates that he play at nearly a ProBowl level right out of the gate to make it worth the selection. In any case, by picking up two picks in the first half of the second round (plus their own), they now possess four of the top 49 picks in the draft, so there is a chance to build a solid base for this team if they pick the right guys. With three passers expected to go in the top five selections (and possibly even a fourth!), there is little doubt that one of those three players will be a Colt in April. And I have not even mentioned the additional 2nd round pick for the Jets in the 2019 draft – a pick almost assuredly to again be in the top 50 players overall.
After such a great coup, I held out hope that the Colts might have a good plan in place. They have QB Andrew Luck and a bevy of young talent to get in the draft, and maybe they can build around the few decent players they had by spending some of that massive cap space. Well, the players continued to sign elsewhere around the league and left everyone scratching their heads as to the Ballard Plan. And then two of the least expected things happened as the only two players worth a damn on the defense were lost within 24 hours of each other. CB Rashaan Melvin was the 2018 team MVP and signed with the Raiders for a paltry $6.5 million and ONE season! The Colts couldn’t open their coffers to at least come up with something better than that? Or is there something underlying that made Melvin really want to get out? And then the next day something even more inexplicable happened when young stud DT Jonathan Hankins was released one year into a 3-year $30 million deal. He had put up nearly identical stats to his 2016 season in New York (which earned him a ProBowl bid), despite playing in a 3-4 defense instead of a 4-3 like with the Giants. And with the team switching back to the 4-3, it seemed natural that the huge young talent would be the lynchpin at the center of the defensive front….but then they said "thanks, but no thanks" and cut him.
WTF? I have no explanation. A team devoid of talent with plenty of cap room….let their best three players go (RB Frank Gore was also not re-signed) and signed exactly NO ONE to replace them or to fill the myriad other gaps on the team. Seriously? Finally, the Colts did make a single free agent signing, and that is all they have done to date. They signed Raiders part-timer (18 starts in four seasons in Oakland) DE Denico Autry to a 3 year $18 million deal. Not exactly a splashy move. [Literally just as I finished this report, the team signed former Lion TE Eric Ebron to a fairly modest 2-year $15 million deal – a move I like at this price for sure.] I wonder if they are going to be able to actually get to the league salary FLOOR number without grossly overpaying some veteran schmucks that everyone else passed over. I also wonder with the strategy to develop through the draft if they will be able to build a contending roster before the window starts to close on Luck’s prime – even if he is totally healthy this season. There is not a single one of the remaining top 100 free agents that is on the market with ANY interest to me, if I were the Colts GM with the exception of two guys they just had on their roster in OG Jack Mewhort (at the right price) and the aforementioned Hankins.
I would not be surprised one bit if Luck shows himself healthy this year and then is traded for a king’s ransom to finish filling out the rest of the rebuilding project. If Luck is unhealthy, they need to think about looking for a new guy to steer this ship on the field and he is worthless to both the Colts and to anyone else; if he is healthy, then he is worth more in a trade for a rebuilding roster than he is worth standing behind yet another makeshift offensive line for a few seasons while he gets prematurely rushed to the end of his career…and he is definitely worth enough to a viable contender that needs a ProBowl passer to put them over the top. That is just my speculation, but I would not be shocked to see that seemingly unthinkable trade scenario take place next offseason (or even midseason, if he looks good enough). Who knows -- I am giving up trying to predict this team right now!
That is all for this month from the Crossroads of America. I will be back in April to preview the upcoming draft, and to hopefully report on something more positive on the shape of the 2018 roster. Until next time friends, I wish you health and happiness and for the ball to bounce your way!
End.
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