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Denver Broncos Early August Scouting Report
Charles Rives
8/12/2018
Saturday, Sept. 1: Roster cut down day. By 4 p.m. ET, all 32 teams must trim their rosters to 53 players.
This spring, the Broncos showed more urgency, a quicker tempo and increased leadership and composed decision-making from the quarterback position. Individual accountability and a team-first perspective is a prescription for what has ailed the Broncos. Having an unquestioned starter at quarterback has allowed OC Bill Musgrave to install his offense and has made life infinitely easier on the offensive players. "The training of the quarterbacks has been really one of the highlights of this spring under Mike Sullivan and Klint Kubiak," Musgrave said during OTAs. Early in his career, Musgrave relied heavily on the run but he's run more WR-centric (62% of targets) pass-heavy offenses the last three years which limits running backs' value, especially if they're splitting carries. The difference in upside between RB Devontae Booker and RB Royce Freeman is that Freeman could be a workhorse (1,000 yards/10 touchdowns), but Booker can not. Booker, is a fantastic receiver but struggles as a runner. Second-year RB De'Angelo Henderson could be a good complementary back to Freeman if Booker continues to disappoint. However, Booker has good command of the offensive playbook and has become a competent pass protector, so he is expected to start in the season opener against Seattle. Henderson has the upper hand for the No. 3 running back and undrafted free agent (Colorado) Phillip Lindsay is a sleeper.
The team is undergoing a paradigm shift, and at no position is that realization more stark than the wide receivers. Musgrave is using shifts and motion to create favorable match ups for Sanders and Thomas and their heir apparent's: Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton. QB Case Keenum, is good at attacking the middle of the field, so someone needs to step up as a viable interior receiving option. TE Jake Butt is a good receiver, who may not be a true seam threat but could be a factor, especially as a red zone target for Keenum. As a ‘Y’ tight end, he can be moved around the formation as both a receiver and a blocker, although he is struggling with blocking assignments and sustaining blocks. TE Jeff Heuerman is a middle of the pack blocker, but hasn’t shown the willingness nor the ability to attack the football in congestion and show body control in the air. TE Austin Traylor. moves well in space and is a solid threat for a few yards after the catch, but really makes hay as a blocker. Rookie TE Troy Fumagalli is more a receiver than a blocker. He shows good spatial awareness and agility when asked to pull or reach the second level, but won't be a great blocker. Rookie WR Courtland Sutton has the size and "wow" factor to contribute in the slot. WR DaeSean Hamilton can be counted on to run the proper routes and might be involved as the slot receiver. He knows how to manipulate coverage, set up defenders and get open. Having a great tight end and/or slot receiver can make a difference in red zone production and third down efficiency.
DC Joe Woods has a much stronger grasp as a schemer in year two, which should allow the Broncos defense to hit the ground running when the season opens. Woods said. "The biggest thing is learning the stunts, learning what pressures you want to run versus different protections... I have a better grasp on everything, so I feel extremely confident going into my second season calling [the plays]." S Su'a Cravens will help the defense attack opposing offenses with his versatility and mobility, both at safety and in dime and nickel packages. In the ‘big nickel’ sub-package, which includes three safeties, Cravens can be freed up to "fit the run", or match up with the athletic, pass-catching tight ends and running backs that have traditionally had Denver’s number. AFC West is the most dominant Division in the NFL for pass rushers. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa enter this season as the AFC West’s most dominant duo. However, the Broncos are going to give them a real run for their money with OLB Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. With a deeper pass rush, which includes Shelby Harris, DeMarcus Walker and Derek Wolfe (lynchpin of the defense) on the defensive line, and Shaquil Barrett and hopefully Shane Ray at outside linebacker, the Broncos are poised to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks to make bad decisions with the football. No team has scored defensively more times since 2015 than the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have made a lot of changes this off season. The hope is that Woods’ defense will be helped by a more efficient offense and with veteran coordinator Tom McMahon (Special Teams), the Broncos will be able to play complimentary football. Only time will tell. How much they have improved will be a big factor in a successful season.
Players to Watch RB De'Angelo Henderson should have a larger role in the Bronco offense in 2018. At 5-foot-7, 208-pounds, he can pound the rock between the tackles and hold up to the beating. He’s an extremely hard worker who will be in the starting running back hunt. . WR Courtland Sutton, at 6-foot-3, is relegated to the outside but in the red zone he will exploit opposing defenses with his explosiveness. WR DaeSean Hamilton, 6"1, 203, is a phenomenal route-runner with experience in the slot the Broncos haven't had since Wes Welker. TE Jake Butt, like Hamilton, projects as a bona-fide interior receiver for the Broncos with great hands, above average athleticism and a knack for finding the soft spot in a zone. He will become Keenum’s security blanket. RB Royce Freeman is a durable prolific runner inside. He’s a play-maker who rarely goes down on first contact and has the potential to be the best running back the Broncos have had in years. So long as Freeman can prove himself in pass protection, he has a great chance to be the lead back on a team that wants to run the ball early and often. DL DeMarcus Walker is back in his natural position on the defensive line. On obvious passing situations, the Broncos will use him to rush the quarterback and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. MLB Josey Jewell will see snaps as a rotational player early on and will take a starting job away from MLB Todd Davis by season’s end. DE Shelby Harris earned a better grade as a run defender than he did as a pass rusher in 2017 and may have won the starting job opposite Wolfe. With Harris, (DeMarcus) Walker and (Adam) Gotsis, the Broncos will have a formidable D-line rotation capable of stopping the run and pressuring the QB. In the past five seasons, Denver's top three corner backs have missed a total of 19 regular-season games. In none of those seasons did the Broncos get a full 16-game slate out of all three corner backs. CB Su'a Cravens has the ability to be a star (strong) safety where he can fly around the box and make plays close to the line of scrimmage. CB Isaac Yiadom, at 6'1, is Denver’s tallest corner (with long arms) and he uses that length to his advantage. He's a physical corner who lacks refinement, but has maturity and passion. He excels in man-press coverage (Wood's/Denver style), but lacks route recognition.
Predictions QB's Keenum, Lynch and Kelly will make the 53 roster. Head Coach Vance Joseph wants a committee backfield. Based on their dominance in OTAs, rookie WRs Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton are locked in behind veterans Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. TE Jake Butt will be a monster red zone weapon for Keenum, but expect ups and downs typical of a young player. It will be the Simmons and Stewart Show at Safety, with Cravens as the "dime backer" in sub packages. DE DeMarcus Walker, will provide high value as an interior pocket-pusher. If the new players come together, the Broncos have legit playoff aspirations. WRs Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton provide the depth needed to be effective in three-wide formations. RB Phillip Lindsay (D. Henderson, Booker?) will emerge as a solid, reliable target out of the backfield.
Bill Musgrave's Offense Musgrave has traditionally deployed a variant of the West Coast Offense and that isn't going to change. The ground game is absolutely crucial for a successful West Coast Offense and the Broncos are committed to that approach-which set Keenum up for success last year. Key to running game success is a cohesive offensive line. The Broncos made personnel moves to upgrade the line and they expect LT Garett Bolles to take a leap forward in his second year. The running game will consist of 4-5 plays: inside zone, outside zone, power, counter, and some kind of draw. The West Coast Offense uses the passing game to control the football from a variety of formations. Look for Keenum to drop back, use play-action (most effective NFL play even with a poor running game) and the naked boot(leg). Expect " smoke and mirror" as Musgrave uses shifts and motion to slow down the great rushers and aggressive defenses in the AFC West. Keenum was reared on the WCO (Kubiak) and it’s a natural scheme for him. Keenum, is comfortable playing under center which the WCO requires. He can stay on the move and remain a passer while processing what he sees instantaneously-good attributes to have, especially when things break down-which are key to running the West Coast offense. The WCO does require the right personnel, especially at QB, but the Broncos aren't far removed from the group of players assembled by Kubiak and Elway from 2015-16. Case Keenum and company will have to play smart and protect the football. With Keenum, the offense should play with more confidence and authority. In order for Keenum to excel, the Broncos have to run the ball. With the wide receivers now being four deep, and TE Jake Butt, the Broncos have the weapons to attack defenses vertically. The key is to minimize drops. If something goes wrong early in a game, the Broncos cannot allow themselves to get caught up in it and lose their confidence.
Training Camp O-line for team drills is LT Bolles, LG Leary, C Paradis, RG McGovern and RT Veldheer. RB Lindsay, WR Isaiah McKenzie and WR DaeSean Hamilton all got practice fielding punts under pressure. WR Demaryius Thomas is working everywhere, including as the Z receiver for the first time. QB Case Keenum has developed tangible chemistry with WR Courtland Sutton -- a stud in the making. He has strong chemistry with all of his top targets, but he's especially showing a connection with Emmanuel Sanders. After five days of intense practice with two days in full pads: 1) Kubiak could help Joseph turn the Broncos around; 2) all five running backs (three rookies), are receiving reps with the first-team offense; 3) Bolles is improving and just needs more time/reps; 4) The O-line has the makings of a good O-line, but need a little luck with injuries; 5) WR Carlos Henderson has little chance to make the team; 6) The Broncos have no choice but to roster RB Phillip Lindsay; 7) Veteran WR Philly Brown, signed the day before camp is expected to make the roster, but his concussion may cost him a roster spot; 8) WR Tim Patrick (6'5, 210) can block, catch in traffic and play special teams; and, 9) The wide receiver's Coach (Zach Azzanni) is working with the punt returners because it’s about catching and possessing the football first. Broncos sign WR Bryce Bobo (6-2, 205), waive WR Kenny Bell. TE Austin Traylor has taken nearly every first-team rep since Jeff Heuerman went down with knee soreness. WR Jordan Taylor is not even close to returning to practice, putting his roster spot in jeopardy. The Broncos fear DE Clinton McDonald, a pocket-pushing pass rusher, is dealing with an issue related to the bacteria infection that previously sidelined him. WR River Cracraft 6', 198 is in the mix to make the 53-man roster. CB Brendan Langley is slowly losing his roster spot to CB Isaac Yiadom. RB Royce Freeman and RB Dave Williams are similar enough to where they could platoon and allow the offense to maintain its style and expectations. Claimed OT Austin Fleer (6'7, 305) off waivers from the Cincinnati Bengals.
Players who need a big game against Minnesota. The first (unofficial) depth chart means very little as the Broncos remain in "full evaluation" mode. 1) RB Royce Freeman-to move up the depth chart. 2) CB Brendan Langley-show his best in live-game action. 3) DL DeMarcus Walker-show he can be counted on to bring pressure. 4) OLB Jeff Holland-needs to show he is edge help. 5) RB Phillip Lindsay-put strangle hold on both return jobs. 6) LB Keishawn Bierria-opportunity to move up the depth chart to go with his special team skills. 7) CB Marcus Rios-fought a minor injury in camp and needs to impress the coaching staff. 8) WR Tim Patrick-translate his catches from the practice field to the playing field. 9) S Jamal Carter and S Dymonte Thomas-The Broncos are high on both as developmental and special teams players, but need a strong preseason.
Minnesota Vikings 42 VS Denver Broncos 28 The same issues that plagued Denver last season plagued them in their pre-season opener. The fate of the Broncos will begin and end with the performance of their offensive line. The line didn't do the greatest job of giving QB Case Keenum time to throw. The game showed Keenum will have to adjust to the new line and the pressure it allowed. QB Paxton Lynch was abysmal, while QB Chad Kelly had an impressive night. Minnesota was on cruise control against the Von Miller/Todd Davis-less Broncos defense. Denver's offense struggled in the opening half and didn't move the chains. The first-team offense had a chance to build early momentum on its opening series, but a Jared Veldheer false start knocked the Broncos back and the offense couldn't recover, going three-and-out. Another three-and-out followed on the next series. Rookie CB Isaac Yiadom got a baptism by fire from QB Kirk Cousins and WR Stefon Diggs. A perfectly-executed read option gave the Broncos their first touchdown of the game (Freeman). QB Chad Kelly's, 19-yard fourth-quarter touchdown pass to RB Phillip Lindsay might have been his brightest moment. Three of the four Kelly-led drives covered 70 or more yards. WR Isaiah McKenzie's patience on his 78-yard punt return for a touchdown late in the second quarter was crucial, but the return would not have happened without blocks from RB De'Angelo Henderson and CB Brendan Langley. Freeman's strong debut puts heat on Devontae Booker for the Week 1 starting job. RB Devontae Booker only had two carries but that was enough to see the same running back. The first-team defense and offense looked lethargic and ill-prepared.
FANTASY OUTLOOK-PPR
The Broncos open the season with back-to-back home games but that's the only time they play two in a row at home all year. They also play twice where they are on the road three times in four weeks. They also don't have a stretch where they have several consecutive favorable match ups. Remember this when drafting any Broncos players. The first half (8 weeks) of the season is a killer, The offenses and defenses are beatable and the Broncos should be able to move the ball, especially on the ground. The Broncos could provide some fantasy value in weeks 4-6-7 13-15-16. Freeman, RB3, Thomas, WR2, and Sanders, WR3 are the only Broncos worth drafting. The defense should be top 10.End.
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