Hangin' in the Red Zone

by: John Holler

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of the Red Zone statistics for QBs and Fantasy Analysis of those Statistics. If you'd like to read the sections covering RBs, WRs, and TEs, please click HERE to order our 2024 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

One of the most underrated stats in the NFL is who are the players who are leaned on heavily when a team gets into the Red Zone? When inside the opponents 20-yard line, not only is there the potential to score a touchdown, there is an expectation of scoring.

Some players thrive in the Red Zone while others disappear. Before finalizing your draft board, it is worth it to take the time to see who flies and who fizzles in close.

NOTE: When it comes to passing and receiving, we use the traditional Red Zone line of the opponent's 20-yard line. However, when a player runs the ball from the 10- or 15-yard line, there isn't a realistic expectation of scoring, so the Red Zone numbers for rushing begin at the opponent's 5-yard line.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

2023 (minimum 50 attempts)

 

At-Cm-Yd-TD-Int

Dak Prescott 109-65-450-28-2

Jordan Love 100-55-341-25-3

Patrick Mahomes 99-59-347-24-2

Jared Goff 84-47-331-19-0

Matthew Stafford 84-40-257-18-0

Russell Wilson 77-48-325-20-1

Tua Tagovailoa 76-45-267-17-1

Josh Allen 73-43-302-20-1

Brock Purdy 71-50-368-19-2

Derek Carr 71-37-252-17-1

Geno Smith 68-29-227-16-2

Justin Herbert 68-38-189-15-1

Lamar Jackson 65-43-282-17-2

Baker Mayfield 65-33-249-14-1

Sam Howell 65-32-184-13-3

C.J. Stroud 64-30-216-16-2

Gardner Minshew 64-32-224-10-1

Trevor Lawrence 59-32-244-13-1

Jalen Hurts 54-32-230-13-1

Aiden O'Connell 52-37-216-8-1

Joe Burrow 51-35-198-11-2

Justin Fields 51-27-176-11-1

Desmond Ritter 50-32-198-9-3

 

What the Numbers Tells Us

• Prescott led the league across the board without Ezekiel Elliott sniping touchdowns
• Love was a surprise in throwing 25 RZTDs
• The drop-off after Mahomes in terms of pass attempts was pretty huge
• Stafford and Goff don't give the ball away in the Red Zone
• Wilson had a pretty strong season in close and accounted for most of his TDs
• Tagovailoa had a lot of his TDs on long passes outside the Red Zone
• Purdy completed a lot of passes in the tight windows of the Red Zone
• Smith is awful completing passes in close
• Howell threw too many interceptions compared to touchdowns
• Jackson completes more than two thirds of his RZ passes
• Stroud needs to improve in the Red Zone
• Hurts is efficient in the Red Zone, but is more dangerous running the ball
• Burrow completed almost 70 percent of his Red Zone passes

 

Last Three Years (minimum 120 attempts)

 

Att-Com-Yrd-TD-Int

Patrick Mahomes 334-198-1,161-84-10

Josh Allen 298-163-1,138-73-9

Justin Herbert 284-161-961-64-4

Dak Prescott 268-170-1,175-72-5

Matthew Stafford 241-123-865-57-1

Kirk Cousins 237-140-968-59-6

Jared Goff 235-130-868-52-3

Tom Brady 234-140-862-52-0

Derek Carr 216-110-713-45-5

Joe Burrow 207-130-883-50-6

Trevor Lawrence 200-105-714-40-6

Aaron Rodgers 199-120-790-50-4

Tua Tagovailoa 182-114-677-48-2

Russell Wilson 175-99-702-43-4

Lamar Jackson 173-100-690-42-5

Jalen Hurts 162-91-688-34-4

Ryan Tannehill 161-97-637-32-3

Geno Smith 155-75-553-37-2

Kyler Murray 152-82-541-33-2

Baker Mayfield 148-80-558-33-1

Mac Jones 146-90-588-34-3

Matt Ryan 143-76-560-30-0

Jimmy Garoppolo 122-71-487-33-4

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Mahomes leads the league not only in RZTDs, but interceptions as well
• Allen has been elite in the Red Zone, but throws too many interceptions
• Herbert has been dominant in the RZ, but last year he struggled badly
• Stafford doesn't turn the ball over with points on the line
• Cousins throws a lot of his TDs in close
• Brady and Matt Ryan still made this list despite being retired
• Burrow and Rodgers both have 50 RZTDs despite missing significant time
• Smith completes less than 50 percent of his passes with points on the line
• Murray and Mayfield have fewer RZTDs than Mac Jones

QB RUSHING (minimum 3 attempts)

 

2023

 

At-Yd-TD

Jalen Hurts 16-18-13

Josh Allen 14-19-8

Russell Wilson 6-8-3

Kyler Murray 6-(-15)-2

Patrick Mahomes 6-(-10)-0

Trevor Lawrence 5-4-3

Justin Herbert 5-2-2

Justin Fields 5-1-2

Lamar Jackson 5-0-1

Jake Browning 4-3-3

C.J. Stroud 4-7-2

Gardner Minshew 4-7-2

Bryce Young 4-0-0

Jordan Love 3-4-3

Sam Howell 3-6-2

Anthony Richardson 3-5-2

Mitchell Trubisky 3-2-2

Tyson Bagent 3-2-2

Easton Stick 3-4-1

Aidan O'Connell 3-1-1

Baker Mayfield 3-(-1)-1

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Hurts is in a class by himself
• Allen isn't far behind, but the drop-off after them is pronounced
• Mahomes doesn't bring much to the table as a Red Zone runner
• Wilson can still make plays with his legs in close
• Jackson is a dangerous runner, but rarely in close
• Lawrence can still get the job done in close
• Young's struggles include his legs, not just his arm
• Richardson's numbers came in a very small sample size

 

Last Three Years (minimum 7 attempts)

 

At-Yd-TD

Jalen Hurts 47-46-29

Josh Allen 33-43-15

Trevor Lawrence 17-26-9

Justin Fields 17-24-8

Kyler Murray 16-(-6)-8

Lamar Jackson 14-4-4

Joe Burrow 13-13-4

Daniel Jones 12-4-4

Justin Herbert 12-4-3

Ryan Tannehill 11-19-9

Russell Wilson 11-18-6

Patrick Mahomes 11-8-4

Sam Darnold 10-20-6

Zach Wilson 9-8-4

Kenny Pickett 8-8-4

Jimmy Garoppolo 7-15-5

Mitch Trubisky 7-8-5

Marcus Mariota 7-2-4

Tua Tagovailoa 7-10-3

Brock Purdy 7-0-3

Carson Wentz 7-6-2

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

• Hurts has almost twice as many RZTDs as anyone else and three times all but Allen
• Allen has averaged 11 carries from in close
• Lawrence is a consistent scorer on the ground
• Jackson hasn't been a legitimate RZ threat for some time
• Herbert can scramble, but doesn't do it effectively in close
• Darnold is a sneaky player near the goal line
• Tagovailoa isn't going to bring much as a rusher in close

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

As mentioned atop this release, if you like to read the entire Red Zone feature, please click HERE to order our 2024 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

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