The Most Overvalued Rookies Based on Early ADP

by: Chris Rito

Editor's Note: Below you will find a good portion of this special article. If you'd like to read the entire piece, please click HERE to order our 2025 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

As training camp buzz kicks into full gear, fantasy managers are salivating over the new crop of 2025 NFL rookies. The draft class boasted plenty of talent, but not every first-round pick is destined for instant fantasy greatness. Early average draft position (ADP) data is showing some inflated hype for rookies who might disappoint based on their situation, role, or development curve.Here’s a look at five big-name rookies who are currently overvalued in redraft formats, and why fantasy managers might want to tap the brakes.

 

1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: RB5)

Why He's Overvalued:Jeanty is being drafted as a high-end RB1 ahead of established players with great recent histories and performance…based largely on Jeanty’s draft position (6^th overall), new coach Pete Carroll’s history of running the ball, and the Raiders’ desperate need for some offensive punch. But the reality is murkier, and not only because Jeanty will be playing behind an offensive line that is middling at best. Carroll himself has earlier stated that he plans to also lean on other veteran backs to take some of that load off the rookie – and new OC Chip Kelly has often preferred to use two backs, most recently in 2024 at Ohio State. Raheem Mostert is still one of the fastest men in the league and a goal line beast, making him a perfect fit for a time share. Zamir White proved himself capable as both a handcuff and a short-term feature back down the stretch in 2023 as well. Jeanty surely will be a top-notch prospect for several years and will be the lead dog in this attack, but I wonder if the opportunities to excel and reach his projected output will be there, especially considering the draft capital required to snare him. His dynasty value is definitely at a 1.01 level in rookie-only drafts…but for redraft leagues, spending a first-round pick on him is simply too high for my expectations.

Better Value:Jonathan Taylor (RB8) - a clear three-down alpha with a superior offensive line.

 

2. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, CarolinaPanthers (ADP: WR22)

Why He's Overvalued:McMillan displayed elite productivity at Arizona, but he’s landing in a Panthersaerial offense that was one of the least productive in the NFL last season in nearly every metric. On the plus side, Bryce Young showed signs of turning the corner late with a strong finish in the last 6 games (when he was a top ten fantasy producer). New coach Dave Canales certainly hopes to invigorate the offense like he did in Tampa and may see the 6’5" Tetairoa as his next Mike Evans, but this is a lot of speculation and expectation for a guy yet to face an NFL secondary. McMillan profiles as a boom-or-bust option week-to- week with solid TD potential, but early drafters are taking him ahead of safer volume-based receivers like Courtland Sutton or Zay Flowers. He is also going ahead of some other NFL "1A" guys who should exceed his value weekly, such as Jameson Williams and George Pickens. Expect inconsistency as he adjusts to NFL coverages and Carolina’s still undermanned offense.

Better Value:DeVonta Smith (WR26) — a fantasy WR2 with week-winning WR1 upside

 

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As mentioned atop this release, if you like to read the entire article, please click HERE to order our 2025 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

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