by: John Holler

 

Editor's Note: Below you will find Red Zone statistics for QBs and Fantasy Analysis of those Statistics.  If you'd like to read the sections covering RBs, WRs, and TEs, please click HERE to order our 2011 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

There are several factors that go into making a player a fantasy star. Whether you’re a pass-happy quarterback, a workhorse running back or a go-to receiver, there are plenty of little things that go into making a player a consistent fantasy scorer.

One that goes largely unnoticed is red zone production, which, in many ways, is one of the easiest stats to track when it comes to determining a player’s fantasy production. For years, Brian Westbrook was one of the top NFL running backs, but unless you played in a yardage-heavy or PPR league, Westbrook wasn’t nearly as dominant. Why? Because he rarely got the ball on the ground near the goal line and, when he did, he wasn’t effective.

What follows is our analysis of red zone stats for the skill position players and what the numbers can tell us. The lists look at both the 2010 season and, for the purpose of defining trends, the last three seasons combined. For our purposes, the red zone has different measures for running backs. For quarterbacks and receivers (RBs, WRs and TEs), the red zone holds the standard definition – inside the opponents 20-yard line. Any pass thrown in the red zone, if executed properly, can realistically be expected to pop for a touchdown. However, a running back getting a handoff or a quarterback taking off from the pocket on the ground can’t realistically be expected to score when they carry the ball from the 15-yard line. For that reason, our red zone numbers for rushing attempts come from the 5-yard line in, because those carries include a realistic expectation of being able to score on those plays.

When in comes to receptions, it isn’t always how many passes a player catches, it’s how many times he’s targeted – when the QB throws the ball, he is expecting it to be caught by the target player. This can be a telling stat, because, if a player is targeted 20 times and only catches eight of them, he won’t be targeted for long.

With those explanations out of the way, here are the numbers and what those numbers can tell us as you prepare for your 2011 fantasy drafts.

QUARTERBACK

THE NUMBERS

2010 (50+ passes)

PLAYER                     At-Cm Yd TD Int

Drew Brees             106-63 397 22 4

Matt Ryan                 88-51 346 22 1

Peyton Manning       86-49 349 26 0

Sam Bradford           86-42 257 12 4

Tom Brady                81-51 334 27 0

Aaron Rodgers         76-50 320 19 1

Carson Palmer         75-39 245 19 3

Philip Rivers             74-38 299 18 2

Eli Manning              74-42 277 17 4

Matt Schaub            73-42 313 19 0

Michael Vick             72-40 207 13 1

Kyle Orton               69-30 236 13 0

Mark Sanchez          69-33 171 8 1

Jay Cutler                66-34 286 16 3

Matt Hasselbeck      64-33 253 9 2

Ryan Fitzpatrick       63-33 273 15 3

Matt Cassel             58-30 214 18 1

Josh Freeman          57-35 292 18 1

Ben Roethlisberger 56-29 209 9 1

Joe Flacco               54-27 233 14 1

LAST THREE YEARS (150+ passes)

PLAYER                        At-Cm Yd TD Int

Drew Brees               295-179 1238 67 9

Peyton Manning        245-149 1008 68 2

Eli Manning               239-128 848 47 6

Jay Cutler                 234-116 875 54 13

Matt Schaub             230-136 972 51 4

Aaron Rodgers         228-142 932 56 1

Philip Rivers              225-124 973 62 4

Matt Cassel              221-105 788 47 3

Kyle Orton                216-108 812 44 3

Matt Ryan                214-115 836 46 5

Brett Favre               211-126 831 49 7

Donovan McNabb     198-110 703 40 3

Ben Roethlisberger  180-92 705 36 5

Jason Campbell        176-99 663 37 1

Carson Palmer         172-93 621 41 4

Kurt Warner             170-111 750 47 4

Tom Brady                159-97 666 43 2

Matt Hasselbeck       159-77 545 25 7

David Garrard           157-80 622 36 4

Joe Flacco                 151-73 548 34 6

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

 

•Nobody is a bigger red zone demon than Drew Brees, who has thrown more than 50 more RZ passes than any other QB in the league.

•Brees’ numbers could be even more impressive if not for nine RZ interceptions – second highest in the league – and four picks in 2010 – tied for the most in the league.

•Peyton Manning is the man in the red zone. In 245 passes, he has a league-high 68 touchdowns and just two interceptions, including no picks last year.

•Eli Manning throws a lot of passes in the red zone, but doesn’t get a lot of RZTDs.

•Jay Cutler has been brutal in the red zone, completing less than half his passes and has more than double the number of interceptions than just about any other QB in the league.

•Sam Bradford threw a ton of red zone as a rookie, but they didn’t translate often enough into touchdowns.

•Tom Brady is as a dangerous in the red zone as he is anywhere else on the field.

•Aaron Rodgers takes care of the ball extremely well in the red zone.

•Kyle Orton has built up a pretty solid red zone reputation.

•Mark Sanchez is far from dominant when his teams gets in close.

•Jason Campbell is very efficient in the red zone, despite a lack of opportunities.

•Matt Schaub improved a lot in 2010.

RED ZONE RUSHING

THE NUMBERS

2010 (2 or more attempts)

PLAYER                         A-Y-TD

Michael Vick                  6-12-5

Aaron Rodgers             6-6-3

Tom Brady                    5-5-1

David Garrard              3-11-3

Tim Tebow                   3-7-3

Ben Roethlisberger      3-6-1

Matt Hasselbeck          3-3-2

Mark Sanchez              2-2-2

Jay Cutler                    2-6-1

Joe Flacco                    2-5-1

Peyton Manning          2-(-2)-0

Josh Freeman             2-0-0

Jimmy Clausen            2-0-0

LAST THREE YEARS (6 or more attempts)

PLAYER                        A-Y-TD

Aaron Rodgers           14-10-9

David Garrard             11-18-7

Michael Vick                 9-22-7

Tom Brady                   9-6-2

Donovan McNabb        8-5-4

Ben Roethlisberger     7-10-4

Jay Cutler                   7-11-3

Peyton Manning         7-(-1)-1

Matt Schaub               6-8-2

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

•Not only is Rodgers a dangerous red zone passer, he is also deadly with his feet.

•David Garrard’s primary asset is his feet in the red zone, not his arm.

•Tim Tebow has the potential to dominate in this area.

•Don’t expect much in the way of ground TDs from Peyton Manning.

•Tom Brady gets a surprising number of carries in the red zone.

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As mentioned atop this release, if you like to read the entire article, please click HERE to order our 2011 Pre-Season Draft Guide.