by: John Holler

 

Editor's Note: Below you will find Red Zone statistics for QBs and Fantasy Analysis of those Statistics.  If you'd like to read the sections covering RBs, WRs, and TEs, please click HERE to order our 2012 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

There are many factors that come into making an NFL player a fantasy player owners. One that is often ignored – and perhaps the most important – is when teams get in the red zone, which players do they count on most and which ones produce the most? Of all the factors that come into putting up points in the NFL (and fantasy football), being the person who gets his number called when the team gets close to the end zone is critical – so much so, that the NFL has created a channel that exclusively broadcasts games throughout the league when they get in the red zone.

  When it comes to the red zone, there are two definitions. The standard definition is being inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. However, when it comes to running the ball, if a running back gets a handoff from the 15-yard line, it isn’t expected to pop for a touchdown. When a QB drops back to throw from the 15, the opposite is true. For that reason, for our purposes or research, we consider the red zone for running the ball (whether it be a running back or quarterback) as the 5-yard line in. Any time a handoff, QB draw or scramble happens from this location on the field, the expectation is that a touchdown will be scored.

  So who are the have’s and have not’s of the NFL – both from 2011 and over the last three years and what those numbers tell us. Before you head into your draft, you may want do a little hangin’ in the Red Zone and find out why some players may be a little better than others when it comes down to making your selections.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

QB PASSING

 

THE NUMBERS

 

2011

PLAYER             At-Cm-Yd-TD-Int

Tom Brady            103-61-485-29-3

Drew Brees            103-67-447-30-3

Matthew Stafford   102-50-394-29-3

Matt Ryan               89-44-323-19-1

Aaron Rodgers        86-56-390-30-1

Mark Sanchez         82-45-390-21-3

Ryan Fitzpatrick      82-45-294-21-2

Rex Grossman        77-43-276-14-4

Josh Freeman         76-45-297-13-3

Eli Manning            74-38-281-15-4

Philip Rivers           71-36-243-14-2

Tony Romo            70-43-280-19-0

Andy Dalton           67-36-268-15-0

B. Roethlisberger    66-32-250-15-4

Michael Vick          65-35-216-13-4

Cam Newton          64-28-205-13-3

Alex Smith              64-27-173-8-1

Joe Flacco            62-23-182-11-0

Matt Hasselbeck   55-33-213-13-0

 

LAST THREE YEARS

PLAYER            At-Cm-Yd-TD-Int

Drew Brees        304-185-1249-74-8

Tom Brady         262-158-1151-72-5

Aaron Rodgers   252-159-1054-66-2

Matt Ryan          238-126-912-56-4

Eli Manning        222-119-805-45-8

Philip Rivers       206-107-798-51-4

Matt Schaub       205-118-870-48-4

Mark Sanchez    193-97-712-37-5

B. Roethlisberger 192-99-754-40-8

Kyle Orton          188-91-610-36-3

Jay Cutler            183-92-697-45-9

Carson Palmer     183-99-661-44-6

Matt Hasselbeck  182-100-659-33-6

Ryan Fitzpatrick   177-94-673-40-6

Joe Flacco           170-78-634-38-5

Tony Romo          169-103-657-42-3

Peyton Manning   169-100-671-48-1

Josh Freeman       167-96-692-38-8

Matthew Stafford 164-80-593-42-5

Matt Cassel          155-78-542-38-1

Alex Smith           153-83-509-27-1

Michael Vick        140-76-428-27-5

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

 

•  Nobody is more efficient than Drew Brees. While most passers complete about 50 percent of their RZ passes, Brees completes more than 60 percent and nobody throws more RZTDs.

•  Tom Brady is just as dangerous – and prolific – in the red zone and the distance between them and the next level of players is pronounced.

•  Aaron Rodgers threw 30 of his touchdowns last year in the red zone.

•  Matt Ryan is one of the more prolific red zone passers even though his primary running back has the most carries of any RB in the red zone.

•  Eli Manning has almost as many touchdowns outside the red zone (20 yards and beyond) than in the red zone and throws too many incompletions and interceptions.

•  Tony Romo doesn’t throw picks in the red zone – it’s either a touchdown or a field goal.

•  Michael Vick’s red zone prowess took a significant hit last year – both as a passer and a rusher.

•  Mark Sanchez is dangerous in the red zone – both as a passer and a runner (see below).

•  Alex Smith is too conservative in the red zone (or at least he has been).

•  Matt Hasselbeck wasn’t extraordinarily productive in the red zone, but was very efficient.

•  Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t as dangerous in the red zone as he has been in recent years.

•  Over the last three years, no quarterback has thrown more red zone interceptions than Jay Cutler.

•  In two years, Peyton Manning is still the most effective red zone passer in the league, throwing 48 touchdowns and just one interception.

•  Matt Cassel is one of the most efficient red zone passers in the league.

 

QB RUSHING

 

THE NUMBERS

 

2011

PLAYER               At-Yd-TD

Cam Newton           14-19-8

Mark Sanchez           7-14-6

Tom Brady                6-3-3

Ryan Fitzpatrick       5-(-3)-0

Josh Freeman            4-3-3

Joe Flacco               3-(-1)-1

Michael Vick           3-(-8)-0

Tony Romo               3-3-1

Tim Tebow               3-1-2

Matt Schaub              3-3-2

Drew Brees             2-(-2)-0

John Beck                 2-6-2

Jay Cutler                  2-3-1

Matt Moore            2-(-3)-1

Tarvaris Jackson     2-(-1)-0

Andy Dalton            2-7-1

Philip Rivers            2-3-1

Carson Palmer        2-1-1

Matt Ryan              2-2-2

 

LAST THREE YEARS

PLAYER             At-Yd-TD

Tom Brady              15-9-5

Cam Newton         14-19-8

Michael Vick         12-14-7

Mark Sanchez       10-19-9

Aaron Rodgers       9-12-6

Jay Cutler               8-12-3

David Garrard        7-12-5

Josh Freeman         7-(-1)-3

Tim Tebow            6-8-5

B. Roethlisberger   6-9-3

Joe Flacco             6-4-2

Matt Schaub          6-3-2

Ryan Fitzpatrick    5-(-3)-0

Drew Brees           5-0-2

Carson Palmer       5-4-4

Matt Hasselbeck   5-10-2

Tony Romo           4-6-2

Matt Ryan             4-2-3

Philip Rivers          4-11-2

Matthew Stafford   3-6-3

 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

•  Cam Newton put together one of the scariest fantasy football seasons ever, especially considering that he had six more touchdown runs from outside the red zone.

•  Who needs Tim Tebow on the Jets? Over the last three years, no quarterback has more RZTDs rushing than Mark Sanchez.

•  Tom Brady took more carries in close than ever before and, with BGE gone, he may take more this year.

•  Didn’t you used to be Michael Vick? Minus-8 yards and three rushes in 2011? Not what fantasy signed on for.

•  Don’t expected Grizzy Adams (a.k.a. Ryan Fitzpatrick) to get you cheap 1-yard rushing TDs.

•  Just as Matt Ryan is something of a surprise in terms of his red zone passing prowess, he’s deadly when he runs the ball from the 1-yard – not often, but effective.

•  If David Garrard wins the Miami job, he could make an impact in close – especially seeing as Reggie Bush isn’t a red zone banger.

•  When Tim Tebow runs, he almost always finishes the deal.

•  Carson Palmer is sneaky in close.

•  When Matthew Stafford runs, Matthew Stafford scores.

•  Don’t expect anything in the way of rushing TDs from Peyton Manning.

 

.

.

.

As mentioned atop this release, if you like to read the entire article, please click HERE to order our 2012 Pre-Season Draft Guide.