This is pretty much our last Dispatch before the Season starts, and some people will be Drafting over the weekend, so we’ll try to go over most the relevant players on the Dolphins roster.
A lot of Fantasy Players falling all over themselves for RB Ricky Williams. Admittedly, our Hippy Dippy Running Back has looked good in Pre-Season. He’s still got the jets. RB Ronnie Brown, returning from knee surgery, looked sluggish in the first Pre-Season game, injured his thumb in the second. Much was made of Ricky getting promoted to de facto "Starter" over Ronnie.
A word of caution: REMEMBER WHO YOU ARE DEALING WITH! This is the same Hippy Dippy Running Back who retired a week before Training Camp a couple years ago, caught the first plane to Asia, has been suspended three times (I think, maybe I lost count) violating the substance abuse policy. He went to Canada, got hurt. He got re-instated by the NFL last year, played briefly in one game, got hurt. As Sherlock Holmes once remarked, it’s like building on quicksand.
The plan, near as anyone can tell, is still to use Ricky and Ronnie in the Dolphin backfield. Coming off surgery, Ronnie Brown didn’t figure to be terribly effective early in the Season, which meant Miami would be leaning a bit more on Ricky. Recent developments have not altered this scenario all that much. Both players are still a bit of a gamble. Ronnie Brown is obviously the hope for the future, should be ranked higher in Keeper Leagues. Ricky Williams could spice up your Line-up, but you’d be wise to make him (at least) your 3rd or 4th option at Running Back, though he will probably offer pretty good value in Salary Cap contests.
The other major development on the Fantasy Front is QB Chad Pennington named the Starter. You can blame this mainly on Josh McCown and John Beck putzing out, big time. If either one of these guys would’ve stepped up through Training Camp the new regime might not have been looking for help, but they didn’t, so they did. Chad Henne has looked pretty good, but (I don’t care what anyone says) starting a Rookie at Quarterback in the NFL is strictly an act of desperation. The only time it’s paid off in recent memory is Ben Rothlisberger, and he didn’t start the first game of the season, and he was on a team with an outstanding Rushing Attack.
Opinions divided around South Florida on Pennington. First of all, we hate the guy. Have for years. Some say he will be the intelligent veteran mentor Chad Henne will need to develop into a big League Quarterback, and others point out he will be a steadying influence on an offense in "transition" (which is a nicer way to say "Train Wreck").
With Pennington behind center, the Dolphin Offense will become the dink and dunk attack we all came to loath and despise when he was piloting the Jets. Last week versus Kansas City, his first pass went for 3 yards, his second for 5. In 2-1/2 Quarters of work he finished the night 11 of 15 for (brace yourselves) a whopping 94 yards and 1 TD. His longest completion to date has been 22 yards. This may not be bad for the team. They’ll eke out a few more wins, take the pressure off their Defense. But fun to watch? I wouldn’t count on it. And unless you’re in a 10-12 Team League where you can play 3 Quarterbacks, I don’t see Pennington offering much in the way of Fantasy Value. Tough to image he’ll have one game over 300 Yards. He’ll probably average between 150 and 200 yards a week, with 1 or 2 TDs. I sincerely hope your situation does not deteriorate to such an extent that Pennington becomes an upgrade.
At Receiver, Pennington seems to be going to WR Ted Ginn, Jr. (a.k.a. Mr. Touch Football). The kid is fast, no doubt about it, but still the first guy touches him he’s down. He had a great Punt Return for a TD versus The Chiefs, I admit, but nobody touched him. To date I haven’t seen him run one vertical pattern with Pennington behind center. Either the powers that be are saving that for the Regular Season or they simply realize Ginn can run faster than Pennington can throw. Ted Ginn, Jr. projects to be Miami’s leading receiver, but I doubt that makes him better than a #3 or #4 Fantasy wide-out.
After Ginn the pass catching on The Fins gets murky. WR Derek Hagan will be the 2nd Starter, and I consider him a great Sleeper, for he’s the prototypical possession Receiver who should catch a lot of balls in the dink and dunk Offense, but Pennington didn’t target him once. After Ginn Pennington seemed to be looking for his Tight Ends and Miami’s got 3 pretty much interchangeable wide-bodies: David Martin, Justin Peele, Anthony Fasano. Fasano ended up Miami’s leading Receiver versus Kansas City, with 3 catches for 30 yards and 1 TD. He would not have had the TD except for a bad call by the Refs, taking a previous TD reception away from Justin Peele.
In the slot the Fins will probably line up Davone Bess, a Wes Welker type (5’10", 190 lbs) who caught over 100 passes last year in Hawaii’s Run and Shoot.
The Dolphin Defense might have opened some eyes shutting out Kansas City, but ultimately you might consider that more of an indictment of the Chief Offense than a recommendation for the Miami D. Through last year the Fins had one of the worst Offensive Lines in NFL History. (How bad were they? In a 32 Team League they ranked 45th.) Parcells and his Merry Band quickly went to work on this sorry unit and Kansas City signed 2 of their rejects. (Does not bode well for Larry Johnson’s prospects in 2008 and beyond.) Still, the Dolphin D has bulked up along their Defenisve Line and at Linebacker. Second Round Draft Choice DE Phillip Merling and 3rd Rounder Kendall Langford seem to be stepping up, and the Miami Secondary hasn’t looked as porous as people might’ve expected. Safety Jason Allen, Nick(head) Saban’s first ever Draft Pick, who’s drawn considerable criticism over the last few years, has been making plays. Matt Roth, taking over Jason Taylor’s hybrid position, has also looked pretty good.
The Miami D might actually surprise a few people this year. The dink and dunk Offense could keep them off the field longer, keep them fresher, and the Dolphins have a pretty easy schedule. If you’re looking for a 2nd D, you might consider them.
Another intriguing possibility might be Rookie PK Dan Carpenter, who’s 7-7 in Preseason. The new regime wasted little time in cutting (Boca La Grande) Jay Feely, making the decision to go with Carpenter. One outgrowth of the dink and dunk Offense is it often stalls, and this should mean a fair number of Field Goal attempts.
Overall, Miami should be better in 2008, but that won’t necessarily make them good. Their Offense figures to be visual Prozac, but they do have an easy schedule, and if their O-Line jells they might flirt with .500. Hiring Bill Parcells improves the team, but he does drag along his Usual Suspects, these journeyman players he Drafted a ways back down the road, who follow him from Team to Team like the Pied Piper. This is the sad state in which the once proud franchise finds itself, and you have to say that is thanks to the Ownership skills of Wayne Huizenga. When Wanny left, they brought in the Nick(head). He came with promise, left on a rail. Then they hired Cam Cameron, which was like The Roadrunner handing Wile E. Coyote an anvil, with much the same result. Huizenga turned to The Tuna, who brought in Jeff Ireland to be his GM, Tony Sparano to be Head Coach. Ireland and Sparano seem okay so far, but they got a long uphill climb, for the 2007 Fins were arguably the worst team in NFL history. However, it will take time for fans in Miami to take any emotional possession of the team.
One thing we got going for us, though – at least we got some people running the team who are going to hate losing to the (Cow) Patties and the New York Jets as much as we do.
Whether they can make that happen, and how fast, remains to be seen.