Minnesota Vikings
Donovan Hannu
7/23/2008

(Changes from June Report in italics.)

Team

There is really only one thing that has changed since the June report that’s worth discussing. The potential trade of Brett Favre to Minnesota dominates all current fantasy talk regarding the Vikings, since the Vikings’ quarterback situation is far from perfect.

To me, this is nothing but talk. Sure, based upon his cell phone records, Favre has been busting his butt to make this trade happen, but there is NO WAY the Green Bay Packers would ever trade Favre to the Vikings. The potential of watching Favre lead the Vikings to a victory in the opening Monday Night game and later to the playoffs is simply not worth their risk.

The only way Favre will end up wearing purple is if the Packers trade him to an AFC team that, in turn, trades him to the Vikings. An aggressive NFL GM might try to swing that deal, but then the Packers would never deal with him again.

Quarterback

I don’t see a need for Brett Favre here. Tarvaris Jackson has only started 16 games in his career, but things are really heading in the right direction. Throughout the last seven games of the 2007 season, Jackson completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,310 yards and 7 TDs. He also chipped in two rushing TDs during this stretch. That equates to a decent season pace of 3,000 yards and 20-21 total TDs. While he obviously does not yet qualify as a starting fantasy QB, the inexperienced Jackson is not going to hold the Vikings rushing game back.

Running Back

During the 2007 season, the Vikings supplanted the Atlanta Falcons as the #1 rushing team in the NFL. Unlike the Falcons, whose rushing stats benefited from the dynamic Michael Vick at quarterback, the Vikings did it the old fashioned way, using a fantastic offensive line and two powerful running backs: Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

As you probably heard, rookie Adrian Peterson managed to run for 1,341 yards and score 13 TDs, despite only starting nine games. In Week 6, he tore up the Chicago Bears for 224 yards and 3 TDs, and he followed that up three weeks later with a record-setting 296 yards and 3 TDs against the San Diego Chargers. It’s stats like these, along with his amazing combination of power and breakaway speed, that have fantasy owners everywhere drooling over Peterson.

Peterson’s season should come with a warning label, because it was not as successful as it may appear. From Week 10 on, he only averaged 50.8 yards per game. His low point of the year came in week 14 (a.k.a. fantasy playoff crunch time), when Peterson had 14 carries for a pathetic 3 yards against a bad San Francisco 49ers defense. In Weeks 16 and 17, he had a combined 20 rushes for 63 yards. None of these are statistics that you necessarily want to see from a #2-overall selection. Did Peterson wear down? Definitely. Is he consistent? NOT AT ALL.

After six weeks of additional rest, he ran for 129 yards and 2 TDs in the Pro Bowl. On one hand, that’s great, but it also looks like additional evidence that Peterson ran out of steam during the second half of the year.

Chester Taylor followed up a strong 2006 season with 844 yards and 7 TDs in 2007. Taylor’s past performance, the Vikings offensive line, and Peterson’s weak late-season finish make Chester a very intriguing backup tailback option. Don’t let the Peterson owner in your league get Taylor; beat them to the punch. If Peterson gets hurt, Taylor will be very successful. Unlike other team’s backup RBs, Taylor’s risk/reward ratio is much higher, since he has already proven that he can perform well enough to be worth a roster spot even as the Vikings second option.

Wide Receivers

No change here since last report.

The Vikings receiving corps, not Tarvaris Jackson, was definitely the prime contributor to last season’s poor passing rank. In a perfect example of "addition by subtraction", the Vikings rid themselves of Troy Williamson. Williamson had blazing speed and was frequently open, but had horrible hands. Drops are not an official NFL statistic; however, unofficially, Williamson was 2^nd in the NFL in 2006 with 11 drops and he certainly didn’t improve last year. His drop of a sure TD pass from Jackson in the season finale sealed his fate. Simply replacing Williamson with another wideout should considerably boost the Vikings passing game.

In the top wideout slot, the Vikings added Bernard Berrian as a free agent from the Chicago Bears. Berrian has decent speed, can get open, and unlike Williamson, seems to understand that an NFL receiver’s job is to actually receive the ball. The Vikings also signed Robert Ferguson from the Packers. The Vikings had very good luck signing free agents such as Ryan Longwell and Darren Sharper from their NFC North opponents in past years and are hoping that Berrian and Ferguson continue this streak.

One interesting returning receiver is Sidney Rice. Rice is a 2^nd-year player that had 396 yards and 4 TDs last season. Rice seems to have spectacular hands, making several difficult sideline catches during the pre-season and his limited regular season action that brought back memories of Cris Carter, but he has never really got into synch with the rest of the Vikings offense. Maybe this season will be different.

Tight End

No change here since last report.

You’d have to be unbelievably desperate to turn to the Vikings for a fantasy tight end. Jim Kleinsasser started 10 games last year and caught four passes for 43 yards. Uh, that’s total, not average. Obviously, he’s in there to block for the horses. Visanthe Shiancoe grabbed passes for 323 yards and 1 TD, so he was at least a minor component in the passing game, but that’s about it.

Kicker

No change here since last report.

Ryan Longwell is the unopposed kicker for the Vikings during this upcoming season. Longwell hit 20 of 24 FG attempts and 39 of 40 extra points for 99 points last season. He is a career 81.9% FG kicker, most of which were booted in the harsh Green Bay climate. A majority of his attempts now come indoors, which won’t hurt matters any.

Each year in fantasy football, one or two kickers form rushing oriented, lower-scoring teams come out of nowhere and become a league scoring leader. Matt Stover pulled this trick off a few years ago. In 2005, it was Jay Feely on the Giants. Two years ago, Robbie Gould did it for the Bears. Last season, Rob Bironas of the Titans was very successful. Unlike all of these kickers, Longwell already has a very proven track record, albeit for another team. Kickers are typically a foolish gamble as draft selections due to their fantasy unpredictability. Keeping this in mind, it would not be surprising to see Longwell have a huge year this season.

Defense/ST

No change here since last report.

In one of the biggest off-season deals in the NFL, the Vikings added Jared Allen and his 15.5 sacks to their defense. While he may bring some additional pressure, one player is not going to change the Vikings into a good defense.

The defense appeared to be one of the best units against the run in the history of the NFL, but that is why statistics don’t always tell the true story. Why would teams try to run against the Vikings when their pass defense couldn’t stop anybody?

The Vikings gave up 4,230 yards passing last season, worst in the NFL. Despite getting torched through the air and having average sack and interception numbers, the Minnesota Vikings defense and special teams somehow managed to score nine touchdowns last season, putting them near the top of the fantasy scoring leaders. Don’t count on a repeat performance.

Summary

The Vikings are a team that is in the center of some of fantasy football’s biggest questions this season, with inexperienced players starting both at quarterback and running back and an entirely-new receiving corps. The powerful Vikings offensive line should help cover up for some of this backfield inexperience and help whoever carries the ball succeed.

Based upon how Tarvaris Jackson ended last season, he might be a little better than advertised. On the other hand, Adrian Peterson is predicted to be a top-ranked fantasy player due to his physical skills and some spectacular games during his rookie season; however, his injury history and inconsistency add additional uncertainty to this mix. Chester Taylor might be the best fantasy gamble on the Vikings team, since he should put up decent stats while serving as a backup, with the potential for much more.