Fantasy Football Picks - Cool and Not Cool Fantasy Football Players

2009 Mastermind Picks: Cool & Not Cool Redux

by: Michael Nazarek

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of the Mastermind's Cool & Not Cool Fantasy Football Player Lists for 2009. If you'd like to read the entire lists, please click HERE to order our 2009 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

This time last year, I offered up my “cool” and “not cool” lists of players to own in fantasy leagues. Before I ofer up this year’s lists, I thought I’d go over last year’s to see just how my “gut feeling” performed. Let’s see how many clunkers I got wrong and how many diamonds I got right…

THE 2008 COOL LIST:

QB Drew Brees, NO – The guy producers massive amounts of yards via the air and while he has the potential to be as nearly as good as Tom Brady, he’ll come two to three rounds cheaper in your draft. Well, the guy finished as the top fantasy QB in 2008, so I’d say I nailed this one, eh?

QB Donovan McNabb, PHI – Most fantasy owners have had it with McNabb, but he’s two years removed from his torn ACL and still has all the targets in place for a big season, as he had a few seasons back before his injury. Call me crazy, call me stubborn, but he’s sliding in many drafts this summer, and becoming a great fantasy value pick. I’ve drafted him twice already! McNabb had a nice rebound season, so I’d say I’m 2 for 2 at the QB position.

QB Kurt Warner, ARZ – I picked him up to replace a faltering Jon Kitna in the SI.com league last season, and he was fantastic down the stretch. Something tells me the Cardinals will learn Matt Leinart isn’t the QB they need him to be, and Warner will once again emerge as the starter sometime this season. Let’s make that 3 for 3, as Warner not only started, but became a top 5 fantasy QB once again!

RB Steven Jackson, SL – When healthy, he is THE BOMB. Yes, he was hurt for much of 2007, but look at his stats when he played! All the talk is about L.T. and A.P. this summer, but S.J. has the potential to top them both! Well, it appears my streak came to an end, but quad injuries can be a tricky thing. Besides, I still made the playoffs in the fantasy leagues I owned Jackson in last year.

RB Willis McGahee, BAL – Just call him Mr. Consistency. In 12 of the 15 games he played in last year, McGahee scored at least 14 fantasy points in PPR leagues and ranked #9 overall. He’s not flashy, but he’s as close to steak as you can get without all the sizzle. Big clunker #1! Well, it appears injuries have gotten the best of McGahee, and he underwent another one this off-season. Let’s just say he won’t be on my 2009 cool list.

RB Michael Turner, ATL – A simply gut feeling he’ll produce top 20 fantasy numbers, if not top 10 in 2008. He’s fast, young, tough, and fresh, and just what the Falcons running game needs! My pride and joy! I drafted him in the 3rd and 4th rounds of multiple drafts last summer and he carried my teams into multiple Fantasy Bowls!

RB Thomas Jones, NYJ – He got the yards, but not the scores for the Jets in 2007. That will change with a BEEFED up OL in New York with OT Alan Faneca’s addition. Jones will define the word “cool” for the Jets in 2008. Another good call. But things might be changing here in 2009 with the Jets drafting RB Shonn Greene in the third round in April.

RB Chris Brown, HOU – No way Ahman Green lasts the season as the starter for the Texans. In fact, I don’t believe he’ll make it out of September in that role. The Texans will be thanking themselves for signing cool Chris Brown as their backup policy. Whiff! Well, I did make these comments last June, before any inkling that a back injury would cost Brown his entire 2008 season. Of course, I was right about Green falling from grace again.

RB Matt Forte, CHI ® - Hands down he’s the MAN for the Bears this season. He’ll start from week #1, and if his health holds up, will surprise many, but not those who draft him in their fantasy draft this summer! Nailed it! Yup, Forte is THE MAN for the Bears and that will remain a fact in 2009.

WR Reggie Wayne, IND – Wayne was my #1 ranked WR last summer and he hasn’t let me down since I’ve been drafting him each year over the past four in at least one league. He’s proven he can produce big numbers without Marvin Harrison starting opposite him. Owners will jump on Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, but Wayne is right in their Tier, so don’t hesitate to grab him as your #1 WR! Wayne was solid, despite a little late-season slump.

WR Brandon Marshall, DEN – I pimped him hard last summer, and will continue to do so, as it’s clear he will be a true monster for his fantasy owners in 2008. What about the nerve damage in his arm? He’s already begun catching passes, so I don’t see this as a real issue. Let others worry about that, and you can choose him at a value in the 4th or 5th round of your draft. Marshall started 2008 on fire and slowed as the season progressed, but I believe most owners were generally pleased with his performance.

WR Anquan Boldin, ARZ – Boldin doesn’t get the name play of teammate Larry Fitzgerald, but he’s just as good. The team should give him a new deal soon, too, so that contract issue won’t be much of a problem. Best of all, Kurt Warner LOVES this guy, so when he takes over again, you’ll have a bonafide #1 fantasy WR if you take him in your draft! When he played, he was golden! And he’s so tough! He missed only as few games after nearly losing his head in the Jets game.

WR Nate Burleson, SEA – When Burleson was first acquired by the Seahawks, he didn’t quite fit in. But with Darrell Jackson long gone and Deion Branch unlikely to return before mid-season at best, Burleson will be starting opposite Bobby Engram. He scored nine times last year, and should continue to produce good numbers in 2008! Whiff! Well, can I be blamed if a torn ACL cost him nearly the entire season?

WR Isaac Bruce, SL – What’s not to like about Ike? Yes, he’s older, but he’s still very agile and productive when healthy. And he’s back in the Mike Martz system as a 49er. Wait until the latter portion of your draft and take him as a depth pick, and the Reverend won’t disappoint! I must say Ike didn’t disappoint late in the season, as he helped one of my fantasy teams make the Fantasy Bowl.

WR Jabar Gaffney, NE – Gaffney took over for a fading Donte Stallworth late last season and scored some big TDs, including a game-winner against the Ravens. He’s the third option in line behind Moss and Welker, and is a great fantasy depth pick for your squad. Whiff! When QB Tom Brady went down, so did Gaffney’s fantasy value, like a rock heading toward the bottom of an ocean!

WR David Patten, NO – Another under-appreciated fantasy producer, Patten has big games left and right, as Drew Brees likes to target the veteran speedster for long passes. He’ll be a bit inconsistent, but is well worth a pick as a #5/#6 WR on any fantasy re-drafter roster. Patten was phased out after an early season injury gave WR Lance Moore the chance to seize an opportunity.

TE Kellen Winslow, CLE – Oh, those shaky knees! Yeah, right. The guy has operation after operation and doesn’t practice much, but when game-time arrives, he’s all business. He’s a pass-catching machine and scores quite a bit too. If you don’t get Witten, don’t hesitate to target Winslow! Well, Winslow performed OK early in the year, but as the Browns got worse, so did his performance, and a late-season injury made him worthless down the stretch.

TE L.J. Smith, PHI – Gut feeling here that the motivation of a new long-term deal next off-season combined with a healthy McNabb and Smith together for the season could lead to a top 10 TE performance in 2008. I’m targeting him as my fantasy backup TE in all my leagues this summer! Whiff! Smith stayed relatively healthy, but he simply didn’t see the targets I thought he would see. And when he did, he dropped more than his fair share of potential big plays. And that’s why he’s no longer an Eagle.

TE Zach Miller, OAK – A conservative run-first offense will lead to many targets for Miller, which will lead to surprising scores and a solid fantasy performance. Best of all, he’ll come at a dirt cheap price in your draft! Although he scored just once, Miller caught 54 passes for 744 yards and was a top 8 fantasy TE in PPR leagues.

TE Anthony Fasano, MIA – A gut feeling he’ll win the starting job and see quality looks in a very young offense. In fantasy terms, he could pan out by the latter portion of this season into a solid fantasy contributor. Very talented, and so ridiculously underrated. Nailed it! Fasano was a bit inconsistent, but was also prone to the big game with multiple scores in week #16 when it counted the most!

Overall Performance: NINE of my cool picks blew up into solid STUDs for most of the 2008 season, including all three QBs. FIVE other picks performed OK. On the downside, SIX picks didn’t get the job done, although injury was the primary reason in THREE of those cases. I’ll take full credit for the clunkers that were McGahee, Gaffney, and L.J. Smith. Still, 14 of 20 were good calls, giving me a 70% success rate. Not bad at all!

The following list of players you won’t see on any of my fantasy rosters in 2008 unless they slide to a ridiculous value in fantasy drafts…

THE 2008 NOT COOL LIST:

QB Eli Manning, NYG – Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE MY GIANTS, but Eli Manning is not a consistent fantasy producer. He’s a decent fantasy backup at best, but is likely to go off the draft board before I consider drafting a backup. As the summer progressed, I began to like Manning, and indeed drafted him in one league as my backup. But after Plaxico was suspended, Manning became a high risk for his fantasy owners.

QB Vince Young, TEN – He’s like a young Michael Vick, and his passing only got worse last year. Until I actually SEE some improvement, he’s not even close to being on my fantasy radar. Nailed it! I avoided young like the plague last summer and will do so again this year.

QB Matt Leinart, ARZ – If you like Kurt Warner, you are not going to like Leinart. Show me something that will change my mind, Matt! Nailed it! He lost the job as predicted, and might not ever get it back.

QB Tarvaris Jackson, MIN – UGH. Why is this guy still starting? Yeah, he showed a bit of something late last year, but nothing close to being a consistent fantasy producer. Although he played better as a starter late in the year, he lost the job early and qualifies as a clunker, as predicted.

RB Willie Parker, PIT – I like Fast Willie, I really do, BUT the fantasy gods don’t. He barely scored last year, and that was before the team drafted Rashard Mendenhall and signed third down specialist Mewelde Moore. He’s sliding down my board like a rock! Nailed it! Injuries took a toll and Parker will be getting his final chance to show the team he deserves to start this summer.

RB Earnest Graham, TB – An opportunist. That’s how you sum up Graham as the lead back last season. He was there when the Bucs had no other real choice. Well, Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett are also in the RB corps, so odds are good that even if Cadillac doesn’t return in 2008, Graham won’t be the workhorse back he was this season. An injury helped out my pick here, but when he played, he played well, so it was a mixed choice.

RB Laurence Maroney, NE – Two words… Sammy Morris. HC Bill Belichick will use Morris is his goal line role again in 2008 now that’s he’s healthy again. That means fewer touches and less scoring chances for Maroney. Enough of a drop that I’m not eyeing him at all this summer. Nailed it! A shoulder injury took him out early in the season, and he may never get another chance to be a big part of the Patriots running game.

RB Ronnie Brown, MIA – It’s a documented fact that tailbacks returning from a torn ACL the next year lose about one third of their effectiveness. That’s enough for me, along with the presence of Ricky Williams, to avoid drafting Brown this summer, especially the fact that he’s been going before the 5th round in most 12-teasm leagues. My first big mistake, but I stand by the fact that most players coming off a torn ACL won’t be the same tailback.

RB Ahman Green, HOU – Green couldn’t get through practices last season to save his life, so why would that change one year later when he’s one year older? Wait and draft Chris Brown later. Nailed it! He lost his job to RB Steve Slaton and is now out of the league.

RB T.J. Duckett, SEA – Duckett has bounced around from Atlanta to Washington to Detroit, and now to Seattle. One problem. No team has figured out how to correctly use him. And now HC Mike Holmgren is saying the same thing. How do we use him? Answer: You don’t. He gets cut during the pre-season barring an injury to Julius Jones or Maurice Morris. In basic scoring leagues, Duckett was a decent pick with 7 scores. One problem. He scored only in 5 games and it was a shot in dark if you tried to pick which games they would be!

WR Joey Galloway, TB – I used to be a big Galloway fan. Not anymore. Not since he doesn’t even catch 60 passes per season anymore. In addition, he only produced five quality games last year where he caught more than four passes or scored. It’s called the slow fade, and it’s time to get off this wagon before the fade becomes a landslide. Nailed it! An early season injury took him completely out of the Bucs game plan, making him a worthless fantasy player in 2008.

WR Marvin Harrison, IND – I may be wrong, but I just can’t see a player who sat out most of last year with a “slight” knee issue and missed all off-season practices returning to the form of a STUD WR. No, sir. I’ll draft teammate Reggie Wayne and avoid Mr. Harrison. Something tells me he’s DONE. 53 catches, 605 yards, and just 5 scores. Yup, I think that qualifies as “not cool”.

WR Roddy White, ATL – White amazingly caught 83 passes for more than 1,200 receiving yards with six scores in 2007. But I’m still not convinced White has staying power on such a poor team, especially one with big questions at QB. Let’s just call it a gut feeling that I plan to avoid him this summer. I missed on this pick in a big way, but I can’t get them all right, eh? Much of White’s success is owed to QB Matt Ryan, whom played over his head for most of his rookie season.

WR Bernard Berrian, MIN – Berrian’s semi-productive performance last year as a Bear belies the fact that an inconsistent QB will hurt his overall fantasy production. And what happens? He signed a big money deal to be the Vikings #1 WR, a team with an inconsistent and unproven QB. I think you get my drift here… Berrian finished as a top 30 fantasy WR, barely. He was prone to big games, followed by clunkers. I’ll call this mostly a miss on my part.

WR Jerry Porter, JAX – It’s been a while since the talented Porter has actually shown his star quality side. He had a few moments last season, but was too inconsistent to be counted upon each week. And now he’s on a new team, one that hasn’t had a star wideout since Jimmy Smith. Let’s just say I want to see him perform before I buy that he once again has that something that makes him a star. Nailed it! Porter was absolutely worthless for fantasy owners, first due to injury, but then due to poor play. He’s curently unemployed. Not surprising one bit.

WR Deion Branch, SEA – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. And you think I should back a receiver with a torn ACL, one who might return by mid-season? Forgedaboudit. Nailed it! A few nice games late in the season is not a good enough reason to have drafted him and carried his worthless butt for most of the year.

TE Antonio Gates, SD – I have nothing against Gates, but his toe injury worries me, and yet many still think he’s the best option at TE. That means taking him in the 4th round of a 12-team fantasy draft. I’ll just take a pass and take Witten or Winslow a bit later. I give the big guy credit for playing though that nasty toe injury and finishing with a top 5 fantasy ranking. This was an obvious miss.

TE Todd Heap, BAL – The talent of Heap can’t be questioned, but the QB situation and Heap’s inability to stay healthy will push me to look to others at TE this summer. Personally, I hope he rebounds, but I see another inconsistent at best season for Heap as a Raven in 2008. Nailed it! Once again, injuries cost him in a big way. And when he did play, he blocked muh more than not.

TE Vernon Davis, SF – They say Davis has great talent, but the bottom line is that he simply hasn’t produced like a starting fantasy TE. And now reports have surfaced that he’s simply too stupid to run correct routes and new OC Mike Martz virtually always ignores the TE in his system. One word here… AVOID. Nailed it! Until this kid grows up and produces something of value, you’ll NEVER catch me drafting him in a fantasy draft.

TE Donald Lee, GB – I hyped Lee last summer, and it paid off, as he developed into a great safety valve for Brett Favre, one with big play potential. And that hasn’t changed, but the QB has… And that’s just too big a risk to draft Lee as anything more than a late round fantasy backup, one that I won’t be targeting unless I have no other choice. Lee failed to finish in the top 20 in PPR leagues, so I’ll call this one a hit as a clunker.

Overall Performance: Once again, I called 14 clunkers correctly out of a possible 20, making my “not cool” percentage call at 70%. Of the other six, I’d admit I was completely wrong on Brown, White, and Gates. Still, it’s nice to see that only 15% of my picks on both lists were bad calls.

THE 2009 COOL LIST:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB – He showed everyone last year that the Packers no longer need the drama that is Brett Favre. He could easily improve his 25 TD passes and break the 30-TD barrier in 2009.

QB Matt Schaub, HOU – I know what you are saying… Schaub is an injury waiting to happen. All I know is that when he plays, he produces. Only on the road against the Titans and Vikings did he failed to produce at least 13 fantasy points in 2008.

QB Matt Hasselbeck, SEA – Oh, his aching back! Well, Hasselbeck is 100% healthy now, so if he stays that way through the summer, there’s no reason to think his play will fall off. With WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh on board and WR Nate Burleson returning from injury, the Seahawks once again have quality players at the wideout position.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – I’m adding the obvious Jones-Drew to my list to re-enforce just how strongly I feel he’s the top RB on the board this summer, not RB Adrian Peterson. Jones-Drew is a better all-around player, he doesn’t fumble, and he also doesn’t get hurt. And in PPR leagues, he’s CLEARLY the top RB in the fantasy world due to his great pass-catching abilities.

RB Kevin Smith, DET – Yes, I know the Lions still suck and masy be lucky to win a few games in 2009, but it won’t be due to Smith. He’s got all the talent to carry the load and the new coaches know that fact. Makr my words, he’ll surprise in 2009!

THE 2009 NOT COOL LIST:

WR Braylon Edwards, CLE – We all know he strggled in a big way in 2008. A trade to a team like the Giants might have made all the difference… but it didn’t happen. Now Edwards remains with a team that traded the only other decent receiving threat away in TE Kellen Winslow. I’m unconvinced that QB Brady Quinn can get the job done and make Ewards productive again.

WR Chad Ochocinco, CIN – Burn me once, shame on me. Burn me twice? NO WAY. Until Ocho shows true dedication and produces on the field, I avoid him in all my fantasy drafts!

WR Michael Jenkins, ATL – He played well enough late last year to earn a contract extension, but Jenkins has always been more miss than hit. And now TE Tony Gonzalez enters the picture, which will limit Jenkins’ targets even more. Not the situation I want my backup fantasy WR in.

TE Kellen Winslow, TB – He was cool last year, but I have serious doubts about his role and productivity as a new Buc with new coaches and a different system. Let’s just say I think he’s being over-valued in fantasy drafts due to his history of production, something that isn’t a lock to continue in Tampa.

TE Jeremy Shockey, NO – As soon as I heard about Shockey’s fainting spell at the Hard Rock here in Las Vegas I knew I would avoid him in my fantasy drafts this summer. The guy has lost his edge! All I know is that he better get it back, or he’ll be out of a job come 2010.

TE Ben Watson, NE – When a team trades for a starting tight end like the Patriots did with pass-catcher TE Alex Smith, what does it say about their confidence in their current starter? Exactly! It doesn’t say much. Simply put, Watson can’t stay healthy, and when he does play, he drops too many passes.

Well, those are my lists for 2009. In summary, these lists should provoke serious thoughts for fantasy owners considering targeting any of the players listed. What’s cool to some, ain’t cool to others. All I can say is that this is my 22nd season playing fantasy football, and I’ve learned to trust my gut more often than not. You should trust your gut too, but just in case you aren’t sure about a player listed, you now know where I stand on them. Good luck to all subscribers with their fantasy drafts this summer!