by: Michael Nazarek

 

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of the Mastermind's Cool & Not Cool Fantasy Football Player Lists for 2010.  If you'd like to read the entire lists, please click HERE to order our 2010 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

This time last year, I offered up my “cool” and “not cool” lists of players to own in fantasy leagues. Before I ofer up this year’s lists, I thought I’d go over last year’s to see just how my “gut feeling” performed. Let’s see how many clunkers I got wrong and how many diamonds I got right…

THE 2009 COOL LIST:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB – He showed everyone last year that the Packers no longer need the drama that is Brett Favre. He could easily improve his 25 TD passes and break the 30-TD barrier in 2009. Well, he was the #1 fantasy QB of 2009. A big CHECK.

QB Matt Schaub, HOU – I know what you are saying… Schaub is an injury waiting to happen. All I know is that when he plays, he produces. Only on the road against the Titans and Vikings did he failed to produce at least 13 fantasy points in 2008. He stayed healthy and was the #4 fantasy QB for 2009. Another big CHECK.

QB Matt Hasselbeck, SEA – Oh, his aching back! Well, Hasselbeck is 100% healthy now, so if he stays that way through the summer, there’s no reason to think his play will fall off. With WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh on board and WR Nate Burleson returning from injury, the Seahawks once again have quality players at the wideout position. OUCH. OK, I blew it here, but he did have a few decent games here and there.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – I’m adding the obvious Jones-Drew to my list to re-enforce just how strongly I feel he’s the top RB on the board this summer, not RB Adrian Peterson. Jones-Drew is a better all-around player, he doesn’t fumble, and he also doesn’t get hurt. And in PPR leagues, he’s CLEARLY the top RB in the fantasy world due to his great pass-catching abilities. My boy Jones-Drew was a top 3 fantasy STUD RB! CHECK.

RB Kevin Smith, DET – Yes, I know the Lions still suck and masy be lucky to win a few games in 2009, but it won’t be due to Smith. He’s got all the talent to carry the load and the new coaches know that fact. Makr my words, he’ll surprise in 2009! Until he got hurt late in the season, he was solid and ended the season ranked around #20. CHECK.

RB Pierre Thomas, NO – Many like RB Reggie Bush, but I prefer Thomas. He’s bulked up to handle the inside tough runs and if given a true chance to get the job done, he’ll do just that. So far, so good. He led the team is rushing and ended as a top 20 fantasy RB. CHECK.

RB Chester Taylor, MIN – So underrated and unloved. Sure, most RB Adrian Peterson owners want to own Taylor for insurance purposes, but I bet you didn’t know that Taylor was a top 30 fantasy RB in PPR league last year? So true. He gets the job done when called upon, and if Peterson goes down due to injury early in the season, watch out! He could easily be a top 10 fantasy STUD RB! Peterson never got hurt, so he had only two big games, but proved to be a good handcuff. Still, he finished ranked around #40, not as high as 2008.

RB Ray Rice, BAL – Last summer it was McGahee, this year it’s Rice. He’s as second-year tailback that has bulked up and looked sharp in OTA’s. With McGahee rehabbing another off-season surgery, Rice is in line to see most of the workload, especially now that the Ravens have decided to move RB Le’Ron McClain into a more traditional fullback role. He finished the year as the #3 overall ranked fantasy STUD RB. CHECK.

WR Dwayne Bowe, KC – I know he’s learning a new system with new coaches and TE Tony Gonzalez is gone, but Bowe has the talent to produce in the Patriots high-powered offense with QB Matt Cassel targeting him. Who else is going to catch passes for the Chiefs more than Bowe? OUCH. He was suspended and failed to produce most weeks when he played. Not good.

WR T.J. Houshmanzadeh, SEA – Most of the time when big-play receivers swithc teams, they struggle, but Housh is different. He works over the middle on shorter routes and has already develped chemistry with a healthy QB Matt Hasselbeck. If WR Bobby Engram can catch nearly 100 passes from Hasselbeck, Housh can certainly do the same. He disappointed in Seattle, scoring just three times in 2009.

WR Bernard Berrian, MIN – Last summer, he was on my “not cool” list, but he’s much cooler this year. He proved that no matter the QB in Minnesota, Berrian can make the big play. And if QB Brett Favre comes out of retirement, the sky might be the limit here! He disappointed by most people’s standards, as WR Sidney Rice emerged as Favre’s new goto WR.

WR Santana Moss, WAS – I know he’s getting older, but he made many big plays early last season, and although he struggled a bit down the stretch, I believe he still has at least one more nice season in him. It’s also important that QB Jason Campbell continue to develop, and he loves to target Moss for the big play. If Campbell enters the season as the starter, Moss is set to surprise fantasy owners again, in a nice way. He had a fair season in PPR leagues, but scored just 3 times.

WR Justin Gage, TEN – Both WR Brandon Jones gone and WR Nate Washington struggling a bit to learn the offense, look for Gage to step up his play as the lead receiver for the Titans. Best of all, he’s flying under the radar, so you can grab him after round #10 in many fantasy drafts this summer. More injuries hurt him, and he was definitely not up to the challenge in 2009.

WR Earl Bennett, CHI – Bennett is my flier pick at the wideout position on this list. He went to college with new Bears QB Jay Cutler, and has been catching most everything in sight during OTAs. The Coaches like him and want him to start. If he wins that job this summer, he could really surprise with a nice fantasy impact in 2009. He scored just twice and was overshadowed by both WR Johnny Knox and WR Devin Aromashodu.

TE Greg Olsen, CHI – New Bears QB Jay Cutler loves to target his big tight end, so look for the coaches to ensure that Olsen gets more than his fair share of targets in 2009, making him a top 10 fantasy TE. He was a top 10 TE, but didn’t blow up. Still, that’s good enough for me. CHECK.

TE Kevin Boss, NYG – When called upon, Boss produced nicely in 2008. Unfortunately, he wasn’t targeted enough for consistent fantasy production. That should change without WR Plaxico Burress and WR Amani Toomer on the team in 2009. He disappointed early, but played well later in the season. A so-so performance.

TE Brent Celek, PHI – He’s the new starter for the Eagles, and unlike TE L.J. Smith, he’s not injury prone. He produced a monster game (6-131) against the Seahawks last season when Smith was out. He may not be a top 15 fantasy TE producer, but he’ll surprise in a good way in 2009. He blew up into a top 5 fantasy TE. CHECK.

TE Martellus Bennett, DAL – He caught just 18 passes his rookie season, but four of them went for scores. He’ll see a bigger role in 2009 without WR Terrell Owens, meaning he could be good for a half dozen scores or more. OUCH. He pretty much did nothing. UGH.

Overall Performance: EIGHT of my cool picks blew up into solid STUDs for most of the 2009 season. THREE other picks performed OK. On the downside, SEVEN picks didn’t get the job done, although injury was the primary reason in a few of those cases. I’ll take full credit for the clunkers that were Hasselbeck, Bowe, Berrian, and the two Bennetts. Still, 11 of 18 were good calls, giving me a 61% success rate. That’s a bit down from the previous year, but still not bad.

The following list of players you won’t see on any of my fantasy rosters in 2009 unless they slide to a ridiculous value in fantasy drafts…

THE 2009 NOT COOL LIST:

QB Carson Palmer, CIN – Too many things scare me about Palmer. First, his health still seems like it could be an issue, as a tweak here or three could sideline him for weeks at a time again. Secondly, WR T.J. Houshmanzadeh is gone. Third, WR Chad Ochocinco and Palmer weren’t on the same page just a few weeks ago. There are some positives like WR Laveranues Coles and WR Chris Henry, but there are plenty other QBs to count on that are less risky. He struggled all season long to produce consistent numbers. NAILED IT.

QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – He’s the Troy Aikman of the decade. He wins games, but doesn’t produce big fantasy numbers in doing so. I know he threw more than 30 TDs a few years ago, but his 17 TD passes last year are more the norm. Oh, he’s also prone to injury at the worst times. Well, he proved me wrong for most of the season, finishing as the #8 fantasy QB.

QB Jake Delhomme, CAR – I think his ugly game against the Cardinals in the 2008 playoffs sums it up nicely. Too often when the team needs him the most, he lets them down. And they just gave him an extension? Bad decision. He was cut after another terrible season and is now the starter for the pathetic Browns. NAILED IT.

RB Clinton Portis, WAS – He may only be 28 years old, but it’s an old 28. Portis wore down quickly last year, scoring just once after the first seven games. I see this as a continuing trend, and the primary reason why you won’t see me drafting him if at all possible this summer. Mr. Concussion. NAILED IT.

RB Joseph Addai, IND – Yes, Chris Rito and I drafted him in the FanEx FAD, but it came in the 6th round. Simply put, Addai hasn’t proven he can carry the load for the Colts without getting hurt and missing significant action. And now rookie RB Donald Brown arrives just in time to take even more touches away from Addai. Not good. He proved me wrong with a solid season, especially in the pass-catching department.

RB Reggie Bush, NO – I like RB Pierre Thomas, so it only makes sense to put Bush on this list. Bush is not healthy, and it’s not clear if he’ll be 100% by season’s start. He’s clearly injury prone. He can’t run effectively in traffic. And he’s no bull at the goal. Yes, he catches a lot of passes, but if you aren’t in a PPR league, his value drops like a rock. He wasn’t terrible, but he did miss a few games and barely finished as a top 30 fantasy RB.

RB Le’Ron McClain, BAL – He was great when used as a bruising tailback in 2008. However, he’s 20 lbs heavier and the team has moved him to a more traditional fullback position. And that means his fantasy value drops like a rock. Wait a few rounds and draft RB Ray Rice and avoid McClain if you can. He was indeed pretty much phased out of the running game. NAILED IT.

RB Tim Hightower, ARZ – He took over the starting job from RB Edgerrin James last season and proceeded to average less than three yards per carry! Enter rookie RB Chris Wells. Hightower may steal some goal carries here and there, but look for Wells to start and make the most of his opportunities, leaving Hightower out in the cold. He kept his starting job and scored, but by season’s end, was a risky fantasy start.

WR Braylon Edwards, CLE – We all know he strggled in a big way in 2008. A trade to a team like the Giants might have made all the difference… but it didn’t happen. Now Edwards remains with a team that traded the only other decent receiving threat away in TE Kellen Winslow. I’m unconvinced that QB Brady Quinn can get the job done and make Ewards productive again. He was traded to the Jets and made a few big plays, but not much else. NAILED IT.

WR Chad Ochocinco, CIN – Burn me once, shame on me. Burn me twice? NO WAY. Until Ocho shows true dedication and produces on the field, I avoid him in all my fantasy drafts! He stepped it up and rebounded nicely. I give him full credit.

WR Michael Jenkins, ATL – He played well enough late last year to earn a contract extension, but Jenkins has always been more miss than hit. And now TE Tony Gonzalez enters the picture, which will limit Jenkins’ targets even more. Not the situation I want my backup fantasy WR in. He disappeared after signing a contract extension. NAILED IT.

WR Bobby Engram, KC – Age is a big factor here. So is a new system with a new team. What is Engram’s role? I’ll assume it will be the #3 WR playing in the slot? Well, Engram isn’t Wes Welker. I’d really be surprised if he catches 60 passes much less anything close to the 90 he caught a few years ago as a Seahawk. He’s no longer in the league after being cut before the season ended. NAILED IT.

WR Isaac Bruce, SF – How can a cool player become not cool in just one year without leaving the team? He sure can if he barely comes back for a final season and is slated to be a backup! That is the case with The Reverend. I love him to death, but I no longer trust him to produce for my fantasy team. He just retired after not doing much of anything last year. NAILED IT.

TE Kellen Winslow, TB – He was cool last year, but I have serious doubts about his role and productivity as a new Buc with new coaches and a different system. Let’s just say I think he’s being over-valued in fantasy drafts due to his history of production, something that isn’t a lock to continue in Tampa. He WAS the Bucs passing offense, so I called this one wrong.

TE Jeremy Shockey, NO – As soon as I heard about Shockey’s fainting spell at the Hard Rock here in Las Vegas I knew I would avoid him in my fantasy drafts this summer. The guy has lost his edge! All I know is that he better get it back, or he’ll be out of a job come 2010. More injuries made him ineffective after a big game early in the season. He barely finished in the top 20 for fantasy TEs.

TE Ben Watson, NE – When a team trades for a starting tight end like the Patriots did with pass-catcher TE Alex Smith, what does it say about their confidence in their current starter? Exactly! It doesn’t say much. Simply put, Watson can’t stay healthy, and when he does play, he drops too many passes. He had one big game against the Bills, and that was pretty much it. NAILED IT.

TE Vernon Davis, SF – The only repeat on either list from 2008 is Davis. That should tell you something! The kid is immature! The coaches are saying he’ll be more involved. Blah, blah, blah! Until I see it, and he produces CONSISTENTLY, you’ll NEVER catch me drafting this fantasy slug! My one big bo-bo here. Davis took a seam route and scored a whopping 13 times to become the #2 fantasy TE in 2009. OUCH.

Overall Performance: I called 10 clunkers correctly out of a possible 17, making my “not cool” percentage call at 59%. Of the other seven, I’d admit I was completely wrong on Roethlisberger, Addai, Ochocinco, Winslow and Davis. Still, it’s nice to see that only about 28% of my picks on both lists were bad calls.

THE 2010 COOL LIST:

QB Tony Romo, DAL – Yeah, I know he’s an obvious pick, but you have to love the way his play rose to an elite status late last year, as the team surged to a divisional title. He not only has his entire receiving corps returning, but also get a new toy to play with in rookie WR Dez Bryant. What’s not to like here?

QB Joe Flacco, BAL – He showed he can be a true leader last year and make plays when necessary. And now he has a new target in WR Anquan Boldin and WR Derrick Mason returns. He could easily vault into the top 10 QBs this season.

QB Matthew Stafford, DET – I am truly oving his situation in Detroit. The team added WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler to take the pressure of WR Calvin Johnson. If the team can stay healthy, this should be a high powered passing game, making Stafford a very cool pick indeed!

RB Shonne Greene, NYJ – The second-year back is the new starter with RB Thomas Jones in Kansas City. He has breakaway speed and is working on his pass-catching skills. Fantasy owners won’t draft him as their #1 RB, but by season’s end, he easily become one.

RB Fred Jackson, BUF – He’s very underrated. He’s the clear starter and only has rookie RB C.J. Spiller to steal real touches from him. Yes, the team may keep RB Marshawn Lynch, but he’s no real threat to Jackson any longer due to his attitude. Best thing here is the value fantasy owners can get by drafting Jackson later than you might first think.

RB Marion Barber, DAL – I know he’s an injury risk, but when healthy, he can still be a dominating presence for the Cowboys. And he’s healthy now, so don’t be shocke if he gets more touches than RB Felix Jones. Bottom Line: Drafting him in the 7th or 8th round is a very cool thing to do this summer!

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THE 2010 NOT COOL LIST:

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WR Kevin Walter, HOU – One would think that after TE Owen Daniels went down mid-season last year, Walter’s production would increase. It didn’t. In fact, he’s pretty much become an afterthought in the game plan.

WR Roy Williams, DAL – He’s another year older, still has trouble connecting with QB Tony Romo, and rookie WR Dez Bryant is now on the scene. Not good. Not good at all.

WR Anthony Gonzalez, IND – Nearly a year after his knee injury, and he’s still not 100% healthy, as a hamstring issue has cropped up. The Colts’ patience must be wearing thin. He’ll have to have a big training camp and preseason to carve out a real role on the team this year, something I doubt he’ll be able to do.

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TE Todd Heap, BAL – The Ravens acquired WR Anquan Boldin and signed WR Donte Stallworth. They also drafted two TEs in April. Heap remains the starter, but he’ll not only see less targets, but is likely to see less playing time to keep him fresh and to bring along the rookies.

TE Anthony Fasano, MIA – He had a nightmare season in 2009, dropping easy TD catches and fumbling several times. He returns for 2010, but I’d be very hesitant to take a chance on him after those troubles surfaced.

TE Donald Lee, GB – He’s not only lost his starting job to TE Jermichael Finley, but the fact that he makes $2 million might cost him his roster spot if TE Spencer Havner continues to develop and wins the #2 TE job.

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Well, those are my lists for 2010. In summary, these lists should provoke serious thoughts for fantasy owners considering targeting any of the players listed. What’s cool to some, ain’t cool to others. All I can say is that this is my 23rd season playing fantasy football, and I’ve learned to trust my gut more often than not. You should trust your gut too, but just in case you aren’t sure about a player listed, you now know where I stand on them. Good luck to all subscribers with their fantasy drafts this summer!