Fantasy Football Sleepers - 2009 Best Fantasy Football Sleepers

2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper Preview

by Michael Nazarek

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of our Fantasy Football Sleepers for 2009. If you'd like to read about all 50+ sleepers, please click HERE to order our 2009 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

Everyone knows about Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, and Larry Fitzgerald. The top 50 players taken in most fantasy drafts will likely be the same group of players. What separates the men from the boys is knowing who will produce when they are not expected to produce. To this end, I will supply you with sleeper lists of players at each of the key fantasy positions. Consider each and weigh them against your league competition. I will list sleepers in three distinct categories… obvious, darkhorses, and long-shots. I have also offered my “deep sleeper” at each position.

For those of you wondering exactly what I said about TE Anthony Fasano (months before he became a solid fantasy producer during the season) on these pages last JUNE, read on…

The TE Deep Sleeper (Excerpt From 2008 Draft Guide)

Anthony Fasano (Miami) – As I mentioned in the player moves feature of this guide, Fasano’s trade to the Dolphins from Dallas was one of the top five player moves this off-season. Fasano began to develop into a quality pass-catcher last year in limited use. His only real issue was lack of playing time behind TE Jason Witten. That will change in Miami, as I fully expect Fasano to win the starting job. The only real question here is whether the starting QB for the Dolphins is good enough to get the football to Fasano so he can produce.

Below you will find PARTIAL analysis of some of the 50+ 2009 sleepers we offer with each player mentioned. As a reminder, this is only a portion of the players listed in each category.

QUARTERBACKS

The Obvious

Matt Schaub (Houston) – Schaub has played only 11 games in each of the past two years as a Texan due to injury, but he increased his TD passing total from 9 to 15 last season. With Pro Bowler WR Andre Johnson along with emerging WR Kevin Walter and serious threat TE Owen Daniels on board, Schaub could be good for 25 TD passes if he can stay healthy for all 16 games. And that once again makes him a very nice obvious fantasy sleeper choice, even if he’s a bit injury prone.

Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle) – Fantasy owners are overlooking what Hasselbeck has done in his NFL career, instead focusing on what he didn’t do last year due to a nagging back injury. Well, Hasselbeck is healthy now, and has the full backing of the coaching staff. In addition, he gets a new target in WR T.J. Houshmanzadeh to go along with veteran WR Nate Burleson and WR Deion Branch, returning from injuries themselves. And don’t forget second-year TE John Carlson also is a serious red zone threat. If you wait to draft a QB, taking Hasselbeck in the middle rounds may be a risk, but sometimes risks like these are worth taking.

The Long-Shot

Byron Leftwich (Tampa Bay) – Leftwich was unceromoniously dumped as starter for the Jaguars a few years ago and ended up Big Ben’s backup in Pittsburgh. Well, Leftwich replaced a banged up Roethlisberger late last season and played well. As a result, he signed with the Buccaneers this off-season to compete with QB Luke McCown for the starting job. Since the job isn’t yet his, he’s a nice long-shot sleeper, one with a lot of potential. If Leftwich wins the job and stays healthy, he could be a big surprise for fantasy owners lucky enough to take him in the final rounds of their draft.

RUNNING BACKS

The Obvious

Ryan Grant (Green Bay) – After breaking out with nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 8 scores in 2007, Grant came back to earth as the full-time starter for the Packers in 2008. He still rushed for more than 1,200 yards, but scored just 5 times. However, there were reasons why his season didn’t go as planned. Grant held out of camp for a new contract, then once he got it, he almost immediately suffered a nagging hamstring injury. For most of the first half of the season, Grant wasn’t in great shape and his injury was a big cause for his YPC dropping from 5.1 in 2007 to 3.9 last season. Bottom Line: Grant is in great shape and attending all OTAs. He’s locked in as the lead back for the Packers, making him a very attractive 3rd round draft pick in 12-team leagues as a #2 fantasy RB. Don’t overlook him!

Kevin Smith (Detroit) – After floundering around for much of the first half of his rookie season, Smith settled into the starting role for the Lions, rushing for at least 85 yards in 6 of the team’s final 8 games. Smith also scored in each of the team’s final three games. In other words, it’s clear that Smith is more than ready to carry the load for the team and produce. The new coaches love him and have chosen him as their starter with RB Maurice Morris as his clear back-up. But since the team went winless in 2008, Smith is often overlooked in fantasy drafts, sliding as late as the 4th round of many early fantasy drafts. That makes him a nice obvious fantasy sleeper!

The Darkhorse

Derrick Ward (Tampa Bay) – Being a Giants fan, I’m well aware of how valuable and talented Ward can be. He not only runs well inside and out, but also is a great pass-catcher. The Bucs signed him and he’s the likely starter come September. Yes, RB Earnest Graham will take some touches and maybe some goal carries away, but Ward should see around 70% of the workload in Tampa. He’ll produce solid numbers and will slide in most drafts due to the perceived RBBC situation. Grab him as your #3 RB and you won’t go wrong.

WIDE RECEIVERS

The Obvious

Anthony Gonzalez (Indianapolis) – Gonzalez has always been the heir apparent to succeed WR Marvin Harrison for the Colts. Well, that time is now. Harrison was released, and the Colts have little experienced depth at wideout beyond WR Reggie Wayne and Gonzalez. It’s not like Gonzalez hasn’t made plays, but he’s never been a consistent producer week-in and week-out. That must change in 2009, and it should. Gonzalez will start opposite Wayne in a pass-heavy offense. The only issue here is that fantasy owners shouldn’t overvalue him. Yes, he’s on a Colts team with QB Peyton Manning at the helm, but with only spordic production under his belt, Gonzalez has a lot to prove before anyone can say Mr. Harrison’s shoes are anywhere close to being filled.

Donnie Avery (St. Louis) – With both WR Isaac Bruce and now WR Torry Holt both gone, second-year WR Donnie Avery appears set as the Rams new #1 WR. He’s got speed to burn and showed last year that he can make the big plays. Consistency is probably his biggest issue, and a lot of that will have to do with QB Marc Bulger being able to stay healthy and productive for the Rams new coaches and offensive system. And even though Avery is an obvious sleeper, he’s still being bit overlooked, with an ADP (average draft position) in the 70’s, if not lower, in many popular scoring systems. But make no mistake, the Rams coaches love his potential, and he’ll be given every chance to make Rams fans forget all about Bruce and Holt.

The Darkhorse

Ted Ginn (Miami) – Ginn nearly doubled his catches in 2008, up from 34 to 56, producing 790 yards up from 420 yards. However, he scored just twice in 2008, the same as the previous year. Still, he’s shown flashes of big-play potential, and this off-season, coaches have been raving about Ginn, as they are seeing the game slow down for him. It’s clear the Dolphins want Ginn to fill that Chris Chambers role, as the #1 WR with deep threat capability. The only issue here is consistency, as Ginn has tended to disappear in long stretches. If Ginn continues to mature, this problem will fade with time, making him a solid darkhorse sleeper for 2009.

Josh Morgan (San Francisco) – Morgan was seen as the future of the 49ers passing game last year. And while he produced some big plays, more often than not, he was sitting out games due to injury. Well, he’s healthy now, but the team also drafted WR Michael Crabtree in April, as the heir apparent to Jerry Rice. But Crabtree must prove himself, and Morgan has looked sharp this off-season in OTAs. Bottom Line: Even if Crabtree starts, Morgan will also start, and see more than his fair share of targets. Provided the 49ers can get improved play from the QB position (a big IF), Morgan could emerge as that go-to receiver, at least for most of 2009.

The Long-Shot

Earl Bennett (Chicago) – Ah, one of my favorite sleeper for the summer opf 2009! Bennett failed to make a dent as a rookie last season, but all that should change this year. Bennett went to college with new Bears QB Jay Cutler, so these two know each other very well. While WR Devin Hester is expected to remain the #1 WR, every indication points towards Bennett starting opposite him come September. The coaches want it to happen, and we’ll be keeping a sharp eye on this situation during training camp and preseason games to see how Bennett progresses. Any way you slice it, drafting Bennett in the final rounds of your league draft early this summer is a no brainer smart shark fantasy move to make!

TIGHT ENDS

The Obvious

Greg Olsen (Chicago) – Some may say Olsen is far from a sleeper, but he barfely ranked as a top 10 fantasy TE in PPR leagues last year. Yes, he has much potential, and it’s the acquisition of QB Jay Cutler by the Bears this off-season that could push Olsen into the top 5 if he quickly develops chemistry with the shot-gun armed QB. There’s little doubt that Cutler loves to target his TE, and Olsen is a serious scoring threat. That spells success for the Bears passing game, as well as good production for fantasy owners who choose to wait until the middle rounds of their draft to take a possible STUD TD in the making.

The Darkhorse

Brent Celek (Philadelphia) – TE L.J. Smith is gone, as the Eagles chose not to re-sign him after another injury-filled season. Enter Celek. Celek had a breakout game last year against the Seahawks, catching 6 passes for 131 yards in week #9. The Eagles like his potential in the passing game, as he’s already been named the starter. With Philadelphia remaining primarily a passing team, look for Celek to make a solid fantasy impact in his first season as the starter. And that certainly qualifies him as an interesting darkhorse fantasy sleeper.

The Long-Shot

Billy Miller (New Orleans) – Miller has been a personal favorite of mine in terms of a mid-season fantasy pickup. When TE Jeremy Shockey was in and out of the lineup last year, I picked up Miller and knew he’d produce when he started. And he did just that in PPR leagues, catching 42 passes in just 11 games. The Saints want to lean on Shockey, but he’s been unable to stay healthy. As a result, Miller sees significant playing time, something I believe will happen again. And if Shockey continues to struggle to play and produce, look for Miller to see an even bigger role in the Saints pass-happy offense. Best of all, you can get Miller in the final round of your fantasy draft this summer, or skip him altogether and grab him if Shockey goes down again early this season. And don’t think that won’t happen again!