Best Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

QB Rankings Analysis

by Michael Nazarek/John Holler

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of our Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings Analysis for 2009. If you'd like to read all QB rankings analysis, please click HERE to order our 2009 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

Tiering Analysis: After a few seasons where one QB ranked above everyone else, things have changed in 2009. This summer, the top Tier is composed of five elite fantasy producers. But the most consistent of them all is New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees. With the Saints defense being suspect, it seems that Brees is always forced to pass to play catch-up or hold a lead. Along with Brees, you have the other top two QBs from the past few years, Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning and New England Patriots QB Tom Brady. If Brady’s knee holds up, he could very well top this Tier, but we doubt he’ll run away with everything like he did two years ago. Joining these three are Arizona Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Their high powered offenses generate plenty of scoring chances for these two STUDs. Tier #2 is a small group, comprised of three veterans that can take their game to the next level, but have important questions surrounding them. In Philadelphia, can QB Donovan McNabb continue his fine play from late last year or revert back to his mid-season slump? In Dallas, can QB Tony Romo produce big numbers with WR Roy Williams filling the T.O. role? In San Diego, can QB Philip Rivers continue to produce if RB LaDainian Tomlinson rebounds with a big year or flops with another injury? Tier #3 contains solid fantasy producers with top 8 potential…

QB Draft Tips - QB Drew Brees, QB Peyton Manning, and QB Tom Brady will go within the first 25 picks of your draft in most cases and should be avoided, since their fantasy values don't fit within the STUD RB Theory…

THE MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: Found exclusively in the Guide.

1ST TIER (THE BEST)

1) Drew Brees, NO

If there was any questioning that the Saints made the right move in signing Brees as a free agent in 2006, all of those questions have been more than answered. In his first two seasons as a starter, Brees appeared to have bust written all over him. In his first two seasons as a starter, he threw 28 touchdowns with 31 interceptions. But suddenly a light came on and everything changed. In 2004, his numbers spiked to 27 TDs with just seven picks and, despite drafting Eli Manning and subsequently trading him to get Philip Rivers, the Chargers kept the franchise tag on Brees, who posted another solid season. But, a devastating shoulder injury at the end of the season left him a big free agent question mark. The Saints gambled and were paid off handsomely. In his three seasons with the Saints, Brees hasn’t missed a start. In those 48 games, 1,841 passes, completing 1,209 of them for 14,010 yards and 88 touchdowns. In an era where Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have dominated the fantasy buzz around the league, it has been Brees who has posted the best numbers. There is little reason to think those numbers will change this year because so many of the factors remain – the Saints play indoors so weather isn’t typically a consideration, the running game lacks the power element and the Saints defense continues to be pretty dismal. All of those factors would appear to add up to Brees once again being a top fantasy producer and, this time around, the guy you want even if you’re grabbing the first QB off the board. STAT FACT: In his last 28 starts, Brees has thrown two or more touchdowns in 21 of them and has been held without a TD pass only once.

2) Peyton Manning, IND

If consistency is what you’re looking for, Manning is your guy. In his 11-year NFL career, he has never thrown fewer than 26 touchdown passes in a season and has thrown for 3,700 or more yards each year. His touchdown totals have been phenomenally consistant (26-26-33-26-27-29-49-28-31-31-27) and, with the exception of his record-setting year in 2004, he has always been within the 26-to-33 touchdown window. He is also extremely efficient in how he throws passes – he has completed 65 percent of his passes or more in each of the last seven seasons. The names of his supporting cast may change from year to year, but Manning’s track record has assured that he will be one of the first quarterbacks taken in any given fantasy draft, if not the top. Although his 27 touchdowns are the lowest total of his career since 2002, it’s like saying Babe Ruth had a bad year because he only hit 47 home runs – the only real long-term comparisons that can be made are to himself. He hasn’t missed a game in 11 seasons and has been as consistent a fantasy producer as any QB in the league. Add to that that he has become a short-yardage threat – he has eight rushing TDs in the last three years to go with 89 TD passes – and Manning is likely the safest pick at the top of the QB board. STAT FACT: The only reason for concern with Manning might be that he isn’t as much of a big-play threat as he has been in the past. While his numbers have remained consistent, his passer rating, which incorporates length of passes and touchdowns as component numbers, has dropped each of the last five years (121.1, 104.1, 101.0, 98.0 and 95.0).

3) Tom Brady, NE

Prior to his mammoth 2007 season, Brady was one of the better fantasy quarterbacks, but wasn’t “off the charts” by any means. Over the previous six seasons, he had posted very consistent touchdown numbers (28-23-28-26-24) and had thrown for more than 3,500 yards in each of those seasons. He had made himself a top-tier quarterback in fantasy leagues but wasn’t dominant and in the discussion of being the first QB to come off the board. But, once he was united with Randy Moss, all that changed. In his first season together with Moss, Brady set the all-time NFL record with 50 touchdown passes and his 4,806 passing yards were 1,100 more than his career average. He was the consensus top pick among QBs last year and most owners that took him expected to see similar numbers. That all ended in the first half of the season opener, when he went down with a knee injury that wiped out his 2008 season. Even so, backup Matt Cassel, who had never started a game in his career, still managed to throw for 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t eye-poppers, but Cassel was an enormous step backward from the timing and rhythm that Brady had developed with Moss, Wes Welker and the rest of the Patriots receivers. While it isn’t likely he can approach the 50-TD level this year, the Patriots missed the playoffs in 2008 despite posting a record of 11-5 – the best record ever for a team that didn’t make the playoffs. As hard as it might be to believe, the Pats have something to prove this year and the last thing you need is the best franchise in the league with a chip on its shoulder. A case can be made that Brady should be the first QB to come off the board, because there are many reasons to believe he will be back with a vengeance this season. STAT FACT: A three-TD game is typically the standard by which huge passing days are measured. In 2007, Brady had three touchdown passes or more in 12 of 16 games and topped 300 yards passing in eight of them.

4) Kurt Warner, ARZ

A funny thing happened on the way to the scrap heap for Warner. In his first 10 years in the league, Warner had played a full 16 games only twice and, with the exception of 1999 and 2001, from 1998-2006, he had thrown more than 11 touchdowns in a season just once – and that was all the way back in 2000. He fell out of favor with the Rams and spent a season in New York keeping the chair warm for Eli Manning. The same was expected in Arizona, where Matt Leinart was the QB of the future and Warner was merely veteran insurance. But something strange happened. Teamed up with talents like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, Warner was able to post some big-time fantasy numbers. In just 11 starts in 2007, he threw for 3,417 yards and 27 touchdowns. That was enough to prompt head coach Ken Whisenhunt to say that the QB spot was a wide open competition in 2008. Warner won the job in training camp and never looked back. He won the job and started every game, completed a career-best 401 passes for 4,583 yards and 30 touchdowns. As always, health is the primary concern for Warner. He isn’t overly mobile and has taken a lot of big shots that have always made fantasy owners a bit leery of using a high pick on him. He toyed with the idea of retirement and it is very likely that his next injury will be his last. He’s a home run hitter by fantasy standards, but one that owners may have to be a little concerned about, since he will come at a much higher price this year than he has over the last decade. STAT FACT: In 11 NFL seasons, Warner has started all 16 games just three times. In each of those seasons, he led his team to the Super Bowl.

5) Aaron Rodgers, GB

The first year of the post-Brett Favre era came with a big thud, as the Packers dropped from 13-3 and hosting the NFC Championship Game to 6-10 and not even within sniffing distance of the playoffs. However, it is hard to put too much of the blame on Rodgers. In his first year as a starter, he completed 64 percent of his passes for 4,028 yards with 28 TD passes, just 13 interceptions and four rushing touchdowns to go with it. While it wasn’t always easy to rubber stamp him into the starting lineup, the kind of numbers he put up were consistent with those posted by Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner. If there is such a thing as quietly putting up great fantasy numbers, Rodgers was able to accomplish that feat. The Packers are a team that struggled last year, but have many looking at them as being one of the potential sleeper types this year. Rodgers more than passed his first test, despite a poor team performance, and many believe the Packers are going to erase some of the memory (not all, of course) of what Favre was able to accomplish as an NFL ironman. This may seem a little high for ranking Rodgers, but if you look at the numbers – both total for the season and week-to-week – you can understand why he is rated where he is. STAT FACT: Rodgers was deadly consistent in his production and it didn’t seem to matter where he played. In 2008, he had 10 games in which he threw two or more touchdowns – five on the road and five at Lambeau Field.

2ND TIER (POTENTIAL TOP 5)

6) Donovan McNabb, PHI

The love-hate relationship between Eagles fans and McNabb has only been slightly worse than that of fantasy owners. A career fantasy tease, McNabb has always been capable of having monster games followed up by two or three weeks of nothing. Despite posting one of the best career winning percentages of league history, McNabb has been an injury concern and a victim of sporadic production. In his 10-year career, McNabb has missed time due to injury six times. His 16 starts last season marked the first time he has done that since 2003 and his 3,916 passing yards represent a career high. The biggest issue with McNabb is touchdown consistency. Despite playing all 16 games for a playoff team, he had just 23 touchdowns. That is the second-highest total he has had since 2001 and the most since he and Terrell Owens were getting along in 2004. He is still a threat to score on the ground as well – he has scored two or more rushing touchdowns in seven of the last nine seasons. However, his upside would seem to only go so far. He will be a player that is the No. 1 QB for some fantasy owner in every league, but he is a player that some owners may rank lower simply because he has never consistently shown that he can be a 25-TD guy with any consistency, since he’s only topped 25 touchdowns once in his career. STAT FACT: Over his last two seasons, McNabb has started 30 games. He had one TD passing or less in 20 of those.

7) Tony Romo, DAL

The biggest question facing Romo and the fantasy owners that will consider drafting him is how much of an impact did having Terrell Owens have on Romo’s production. In 39 career starts, Romo has averaged more than two touchdowns a game and better than 250 yards a game passing. He is the proverbial gunslinger who will take chances deep down the field to make big plays. There is no questioning his ability, but T.O. always seemed to dominate the headlines. If he wasn’t getting the ball, he would pout and the team tended to suffer. With him out of the picture, some wonder whether Roy Williams can step up to be a true No. 1 receiver and whether any of the young Cowboys receivers can make the move to be the No. 2 guy. Those are some pretty heavy questions and ones that have not only affected where we rank Romo, but also where the Cowboys fit in as contenders for the Super Bowl. Many have believed Dallas entered each of the last two seasons with the best team, yet haven’t won a playoff game in that span. Entering his fourth year as a starter, Romo has both the experience and the confidence to elevate his game to what fans saw more consistently in 2007. But, for that to happen, he will need his supporting cast to take a big step forward as well – something not everyone is convinced is going to happen. STAT FACT: In his last 32 starts, Romo has two or more touchdown passes in 22 of them.

8) Philip Rivers, SD

There were some who questioned whether the Chargers made the right decision by keeping Rivers and allowing Drew Brees to leave for New Orleans. In his first two years as a starter, Rivers had a couple of solid season – throwing for 6,540 yards and 43 TDs, but he was far from a dominating fantasy presence. With LaDainian Tomlinson stealing away so many short touchdowns, Rivers was viewed as “the other guy” in a lot of fantasy leagues. That changed abruptly last year. After averaging about seven yards per pass attempt during his career, with L.T. showing signs of age, it was Rivers who stepped up his game, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and, despite throwing just 18 more passes than the previous year, he threw for 857 more yards and 13 more touchdowns. His 34 TD passes tied for the league lead with Brees and his 105.5 passer rating not only led the league, but was more than eight points higher than any other QB in 2008. While there are those who believe L.T. may have a final big run left in him, this is looking more and more live a Rivers-led offense and, while we’re not 100 percent convinced he can replicate his numbers from last year, he is clearly deserving of being someone’s No. 1 fantasy QB. STAT FACT: In his first 32 starts, Rivers had two or more TD passes in just 15 games and three or more TDs in just four game. In 2008, he had two or more TDs in 12 games and three or more in seven of those.