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by Michael Nazarek/John Holler
Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of our Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings Analysis & Drafting Tips for 2011. If you'd like to read all QB rankings analysis, please click HERE to order our 2011 Pre-Season Draft Guide.
POSITION OVERVIEW: Quarterback has always been a critical, yet undervalued position. As fantasy owners skeletonize the running back position and sort through the top wide receivers, quarterbacks are often let go by the majority of owners until they get into the second or third round at the earliest. However, given the crop of QBs with monster game-to-game ability – Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Mike Vick, Drew Brees, etc. – 2011 may be the year that owners decide it might be time to risk letting running back or wide receiver slide into the third round and jump on one of the big-time quarterbacks. However, given the depth of talent at QB with guys like Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, etc. being available, there will be plenty of owners that again employ the draft strategy of letting other players pick through the top five or six QBs, while they use their first two picks on either a pair of running backs or a stud RB and an elite wide receiver, while still get a quality QB like Big Ben in the third round. Guys like Brady and Manning have dominated the top of the QB charts for the last several year, but, with the emergence of Rodgers, the big-play ability of Vick and the emergence of a crop of young QBs, we could see a significant changing of the guard at the top among QBs.
Tiering Analysis: Found exclusively in the Guide.
QB Draft Tips - Found exclusively in the Guide.
THE MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: Found exclusively in the Guide.
1ST TIER (THE BEST)
1) Aaron Rodgers, GB
It can be argued no quarterback has been more consistent and capable of having huge fantasy games than Rodgers. In his three years as a starter, he has averaged 4,100 yards a game with 33 touchdowns (29 passing, four rushing) and has completed a higher percentage of passes each season. Like Brett Favre before him. Rodgers has developed young receivers like Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson and James Jones. All of them have become viable fantasy players, the hallmark of a great fantasy QB like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Rodgers has proved durable – his first missed game of his career game in 2011 and was due to concussion rules, not a lack of trying on his part. His threat as a goal-line rusher – his 13 rushing touchdowns over his three years as a starter make him a dual threat in close with a nose for the end zone. He takes too many hits for many fantasy owners’ liking and, with his penchant for trying to keep plays alive, may be more subject to injury that other top QBs, but his track record is growing and he has become the top QB in the fantasy world and is deserving of No. 1 consideration. STAT FACT: In his last 29 starts, Rodgers has had 23 games with two or more touchdowns and 13 games with three or more TDs.
2) Michael Vick, PHI
A sleeper pick last season, Vick’s vault to success has been due in large part to his playmaking ability. Unlike his years in Atlanta, he is surrounded by big-play stars like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeShon McCoy – each of whom is capable of taking a short dump-off pass to the house. Vick’s value is heightened because of the incredible weapons at his disposal, but it is his running ability that makes him so dangerous from one week to the next. The biggest issue that may be facing him now is that his ability to make big plays open him up to injuries most quarterbacks don’t face. He can reach full speed very quickly and give linebackers and safeties a 20-yard running start to deliver a huge hit. He is liable to injury more than most because of that factor – the risk/reward of drafting him this high. Durability has been a concern, since he has played in all 16 games just once in his career. But, in 12 games with the Eagles last year, he set career highs for passing yards (a mere 3,018), passing TDs (21) and rushing touchdowns (9). If he can stay healthy and put together a full season, he can put up some eye-popping numbers. STAT FACT: Most quarterbacks are better and more comfortable at home. In six home starts, Vick threw for 1,265 yards and five touchdowns, while rushing 53 times for 339 yards and four touchdowns. In six road starts, he threw for 1,753 yards and 16 touchdowns, while rushing 47 times for 337 yards and five touchdowns.
3) Peyton Manning, IND
Perhaps no player in the 25+ year history of fantasy football as we know it. Since joining the league as the first overall pick, he has never missed a game and, while he has only led the NFL in passing TDs once, his totals are he has never thrown less than 26 touchdowns in any season, with year-by totals of 26-26-33-26-27-29-49-28-31-31-27-33-33. He has been a machine in terms of yardage as well. As a rookie, he threw for 3,739 yards – a total that a lot of QBs would envy as a career year. It was his lowest total of his career and has topped 4,000 yards passing in 11 of the 12 years since. We have him rated behind Rodgers and Vick because they both have the potential of putting up mammoth numbers and both have the ability to steal rushing touchdowns in close, something Manning doesn’t do. But, if you are looking for the "safest" pick among the fantasy QB crop, you can’t go wrong with Manning. STAT FACT: In the last 18 games he has played from start to finish, Manning has two or more touchdown passes in 15 of them.
4) Drew Brees, NO
Remember when Miami made the choice to trade for Daunte Culpepper rather than sign Brees as a free agent? You can bet Dolphins fans have. In five years with the Saints, he has missed just one game, has thrown for 22,918 yards (an average of 4,584 yards a season) and 155 touchdowns (31 a year). He has never thrown for less than 26 touchdowns and his TD totals in his Saints years have been an outstanding 26-28-34-34-33. A case can be made that he should be the first QB off the board, especially in leagues that provide significant rewards for yardage numbers. He has averaged 290 yards a game over a five-year span and has a wealth of weapons at his disposal. If they can ever all stay healthy, he could post the kind of numbers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady posted in their record-setting years. As long as the Saints are a pass-first offense, Brees will be one of the most dangerous fantasy players around. STAT FACT: In the last three seasons, Brees has made 47 regular-season starts, throwing for 300 or more yards in 24 of those games. However, the breakdown of his big yardage games are lopsided to his home games at the Superdome. In 24 home starts, he has thrown for more than 300 yards in 16 of them. In 23 road starts, he has topped 300 yards eight times
2ND TIER (POTENTIAL TOP 4)
5) Tom Brady, NE
It’s hard to imagine Brady at No. 6 on the rankings list, because he is still at the top of his game and, it can be argued that, without a consistent running game or a bona fide No. 1 receiver, Brady had the finest season of his illustrious career in 2010. He threw 36 touchdowns and had just four interceptions in a masterful performance. Prior to his record-setting 2007 season, Brady was known as a good fantasy starter, but not one of the elite. In his first six seasons as a starter, he had TD totals of 18-28,23-28-26-24 prior to his mind-blowing 50 touchdowns in 2007. After dropping back to his "typical" TD total of 28 in 2009, he jumped back up to 36 last year. He doesn’t have the stars surrounding him like the other top QBs do, but there is little questioning that, with a running game that doesn’t consistently generate yardage or touchdowns, he remains a threat to be a fantasy killer again in 2011. Brady remains one of the most feared quarterbacks in the league and that shouldn’t change. However, he will be a value pick if he drops to the sixth QB on the draft board. STAT FACT: Brady next left owners empty-handed last year. He had at least one touchdown in all 16 games, two or more in 12 games and three or more in six games. He was also strong on the road, where he posted three of his four 300-yard passing games in 2011. Update 8/5: With the arrival of Ochocinco, Brady climbs a slot in our poll… another nice deep threat never hurts!
6) Philip Rivers, SD
Rivers is a divisive figure in that a lot of people think he can be a punk who lets his emotions get the better of him. But, as a fantasy quarterback, he has become a force, especially for those in yardage leagues. After a pair of solid, but not great, seasons as a starter replacing Drew Brees, Rivers has become a dominator the last three years. His touchdown totals have been outstanding (34-29-30) and his yardage numbers have risen every year (4,009-4,254-4,710). He has become extremely efficient, completing between 65 and 66 percent of his passes each of the last three years and made a seamless transition into making the Chargers "his team." For years, the only fantasy guys in San Diego owners wanted were LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Rivers has taken over the team and, despite not having his top wide receiver target (Vincent Jackson) most of last season, he still posted career numbers for attempts completions, yards and completion percentage. In the NFL they rank quarterbacks by a complicated passer rating system and nobody has been stronger than Rivers, who has passer ratings of 105.5, 104.4 and 101.8 the last three seasons. He doesn’t jump off the page at you as one of the all-time greats, but, if he can put together five more years like the last five, he will be a Hall of Fame candidate. STAT FACT: Rivers is solid both at home and on the road. He had four games with three or more touchdowns last year, three of them coming at home, and had two games with more than 400 yards passing – both on the road.
7) Tony Romo, DAL
Romo became a fantasy enigma in 2006 when he came off the bench to throw 19 touchdowns in 10 starts in relief of Drew Bledsoe and it appeared as though there was no turning back. In the next three seasons, he posted TD totals of 36-26-26 and topped 4,200 yards passing in two of those three seasons. In 2010, however, injuries sidelined him after just six games. The Cowboys struggled badly in 2010 and Romo wasn’t overly effective. However, despite that, even with prorated numbers, had he played the full season, he would have thrown for 4,280 yards and 29 touchdowns – both numbers that would have been more than acceptable to fantasy owners. With questions remaining about the Dallas running game, more focus will be on Romo to carry the offense. He will be asked to do a lot of throwing and has a lot of weapons at his disposal. While no longer viewed as a premier Tier 1 quarterback, he could be a solid value pick for owners who wait to grab a first quarterback. STAT FACT: Romo didn’t set the league on fire in 2010, but he has at least one TD pass in each of his last 18 games, with two or more touchdowns in 10 of those games.
8) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Roethlisberger has never been set apart among the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league, but has put up the kind of resume that would bear scrutinizing. Despite throwing 18 or less touchdowns in five of his seven years as a starter, it should be pointed out that he has started all 16 games of a season just once (not exactly a selling point). He did, however, play the entire season last year after sitting out a four-game suspension for the league’s personal conduct policy. His numbers (3,200 yards and 17 touchdowns) came in just 12 games. Had he played the entire season, his pro-rated numbers would have been 4,267 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has been a very proficient passer – he has had a passer rating of 97.0 or above in five of his seven seasons and has the added bonus of being a legitimate goal line threat. He has averaged two rushing touchdowns a season for his career and has two rushing TDs in each of the last five seasons. He is close to being an elite fantasy quarterback, but hasn’t crossed that road yet. However, it’s hard to go against a guy who has been as clutch as anyone in the postseason in recent years and has developed into a true field general who makes plays other QBs simply can’t because of his size. In many respects, he is like John Elway, a great QB who wins, but doesn’t consistently produce outstanding fantasy numbers. STAT FACT: Big Ben has been his own worst enemy to fantasy owners. Over the last three years, he has started 43 games. He has one TD pass or less in 25 of those games.
3RD TIER (A CLEAR STEP DOWN)
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If you'd like to read all QB rankings analysis, please click HERE to order our 2011 Pre-Season Draft Guide.
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