SAMPLE: NEW GAME MATCHUP ANALYSIS

The following is a sample of our new GAME MATCHUP ANALYSIS for the 2010 season.  It includes a sample game from week #1 of 2010 and a look back at a game from 2009.  For each week of the regular season, we will offer GAME MATCHUP ANALYSIS for all games for that week.  These will replace our TEAM CAPSULES in Thursday Night's release of the weekly newsletter...

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2010 Season Week #1:

Key Stats (from 2009):

Giants: Bottom three in points allowed, passing TDs allowed, and rushing TDs allowed; allowed 40 points or more five times.

Panthers: Top three in rushing attempts and yards; top five in four pass defense categories (attempts, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions).

The Big Picture:

New York has not given up is many points as they did since their truly awful 1966 team (1-12-1, 501 pts allowed), so their track record says you have to expect the defense to bounce back at least the middle of the pack. The running game hasn’t been this ordinary since Tom Coughlin’s first year in 2004, so you would also expect the running game to return to prominence with a healthy RB Brandon Jacobs. If the substandard rankings in these categories are a sign of things to come, then the Giants could unravel very quickly with QB Eli Manning having to carry the team on his shoulders once more, likely looking in the direction of breakout star WR Steve Smith. Should one or both of these units bounce back, then the Giants as a team should do the same.

Carolina has been using RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart extremely well in their power rushing attack, despite QB Jake Delhomme’s propensity for giving possessions away. When QB Matt Moore took over in Game 12, the team thrived by reducing their turnovers (zero in the last four games) and WR Steve Smith finished a tough season strong (recording a touchdown in each of the last three games). However, it is tough to retain the lofty defensive status when you lose arguably your best player on the unit (DE Julius Peppers).

Emotional Edges:

The Giants open their new stadium and look to avenge a horrific 41-9 loss at the hands of the Panthers in the old Giants Stadium finale.

Fantasy Reach: RB Brandon Jacobs

If the Giants do get their teeth back in the running game, it will be because Jacobs is running hard again.

Above Average Play: RB DeAngelo Williams

The Giants were middle-of-the-pack in run defense; Carolina’s strength will take advantage of an average run defense any week.

Below Average Play: Carolina Defense

Without Peppers to worry about, Eli Manning may have plenty of time to throw. There is no consistent, elite pass-rusher on the roster.

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Arizona at San Francisco (From Dec. 14th, 2009, Monday Night Football):

Key Stats:

Cardinals: Averaging 31 point per game in Kurt Warner’s last four starts; WR Larry Fitzgerald has 32 catches, 426 yards, and five touchdowns in those games.

49ers: 2-5 since QB Alex Smith took over for QB Shaun Hill. RB Frank Gore has only 117 yards rushing and zero touchdowns in his last three games.

The Big Picture:

When Kurt Warner is healthy and playing well the Cardinals are difficult to beat, as we saw in their pasting of the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. When Warner misses starts however, we see how it negatively impacts Larry Fitzgerald (four catches for 34 yards vs. Tennessee) and the rest of the team’s offense (they have only broken the 30-point mark under Leinart against the awful Rams). Also, despite picking up RB Chris Wells in the draft, the Cardinals still languish near the bottom of the league in rushing yards. The Cardinals will continue to go as Warner does.

The 49ers have been out of only one game this season, the 45-10 blowout they suffered at home against the Falcons before the bye week. Offensively, the only player who has looked special recently is late-breakout TE Vernon Davis, who has 18 catches for 288 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games. Everyone else, including RB Frank Gore, has been pedestrian at best. The defense, on the other hand, as kept the 49ers involved in games all season; despite giving up a lot of yards, they tighten up in appropriate spots.

Emotional Edges:

Arizona stopped the formerly red-hot Vikings in their tracks, dominating them on national television for the whole country to see. Be cautious of potential complacency by the Cardinal players as a result, but you want to believe that Warner and Coach Ken Whisenhunt will use their professionalism get the message to their teammates.

Fantasy Reach: RB Frank Gore

Gore has looked so terrible lately, but he has to pick it up eventually, doesn’t he? Perhaps an emotional letdown on the Cardinals side, plus a national TV game could be the cure for Gore.

Above Average Play: WR Steve Breaston

You have to think the Niners will plan to focus their energy on containing Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin since they have been on a roll with Warner lately. With the 49er defense allowing 300 yard passing games four times, it could open up some chances for Breaston.

Below Average Play: WR Josh Morgan

It seems like Morgan is picking it back up again (12 catches, 99 yards, one touchdown last two games), and the temptation may be to play for the Arizona letdown, but QB Alex Smith is still not a consistent enough playmaker to warrant starting any receiver from San Francisco not named Vernon Davis.

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