3/22/2010
By Tony Ambrosini

 

Every spring, it is fun to look back at the successes and failures, joys and pains, of the previous year’s football season. What better way to do it than to take a look at four diverse aspects of yet another compelling campaign.

First, we deal with the pain of a fantasy season that didn’t go quite right. Next, we touch on some nuggets of information that you may not have picked up on. Third, we break down last year’s “Third-Year Receiver Breakouts” article. Finally, we wrap up with a look at how my projection of strength of schedule compared to the traditional way of listing previous year’s records.

So let’s have some fun working our way into the 2010 season.

First Down - Dealing with the Football Hangover

It was far from a banner football season in the Ambrosini household in 2009. The fantasy squad finished 4-10; a 1-7 start with four losses by six points or less unfortunately doesn’t cut it for success. Aaron Rodgers couldn’t carry my team by himself, when the nucleus of Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith (Carolina), and Kevin Smith no-show most of 2009. A bad tone was immediately set when my top four picks underperformed and then I could never recover from the bad start.

Then the New York Giants finished a disappointing 8-8, but not because of the absence of Plaxico Burress (as I had countless people tell me would happen prior to last September). The Giants missed their defense (only better than Detroit and St. Louis in Points Allowed per Game) and their signature running game (17th in the NFL, their worst ranking since 2003).

Even my wife’s New England Patriots didn’t seem quite right, and it was proven when Baltimore went up to Foxboro and kicked their teeth in during the first playoff weekend.

These specific events were the shots of tequila mixed in with the rest of the football season’s beer. When the season finished up with the Saints willing their way to the franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl title, the hangover set in.

And how appropriate is it that the season’s culmination is a New Orleans celebration that results in a hangover? This wasn’t just wasn’t any old hangover. Not only did the football season end, but waves of sickness and blizzard conditions in the northeast ripped through the month of February. Kind of a rough way to finish the year, don’t you think?

But now it is spring and the sun’s warmth is being felt again, which is a huge help for my own well-being. The free agency period began and players started switching teams. Discussions of the NFL Draft are starting to ramp up. We finally get to move forward, and that is the best way to leave behind the memories of downing those bitter pills that interfered with a good time.

So now, with a clear head and an exciting and motivating 2010 season on the horizon, all of the headaches of 2009 live in the rearview mirror. We get to look forward to schedule analysis, and who improved and regressed in the offseason. Third-year receiver breakouts, “Stud RBs,” and handcuffs will rule our lives this summer. ADP charts, mock drafts, and nationwide fantasy football Draft Days will be in full swing!

And before we know it, that excitement will get kicked into high gear, when we almost certainly watch the Saints host the Thursday night opener, and all will be right with the world again.

172 days and counting…

Second Down - NFL Nuggets of Note

I’ll admit it. I was wrong about QB Brett Favre’s overall impact in Minnesota. He had a fantastic regular season. That said he saved his worst game for the Vikings’ most important one…the NFC Championship.

Proof that he is no longer a fantasy football tease; QB Matt Schaub played in all sixteen games and led the NFL in passing yards with 4,770.

I didn’t realize QB Ben Roethlisberger was Pittsburgh’s first ever 4,000 yard passer in the 2009 season.

Good luck to the Arizona Cardinals in 2010. QB Kurt Warner’s quick release and intelligence are being replaced by QB Derek Anderson’s long release and carelessness with the ball.

QB Tom Brady’s numbers were awfully good for a guy coming back from an ACL injury (4,398 yards, 28 TD/13 INT.

Barring injury in 2010, QB Eli Manning will be the Giants 2nd all-time leader in passing yards. He will be still be a few miles behind Phil Simms, though.

QB Jake Delhomme still gets to collect $12.7 million from the ridiculous $20 million-guaranteed contract extension he signed last year. The Cleveland Browns are paying him $7 million for the 2010 season. I wish I could grossly underperform at my job and rake in $19.7 million!

Does anyone know the last time a rookie quarterback who threw twenty interceptions in the regular season led his team to the AFC title game? So far I can only think of QB Mark Sanchez.

Not only did QB Aaron Rodgers have a great passing year (4,434 yards, 30 TD/7 INT) despite no offensive line help, but led all QBs in rush yds (316) and TD (five).

RB Chris Johnson is fast. He had touchdown runs of 85, 89, and 91 yards as well as touchdown receptions of 66 and 69 yards. How many distance-scoring leagues were won with this guy on the roster?

RB Cedric Benson was second in the NFL in rushing yards per game…seriously.

The Panthers had two guys run for 1100 yards each and 17 TD. That’s either hardcore commitment to the run, or commitment to keep Jake Delhomme from turning the ball over.

Matt Forte owners hated themselves in 2009, especially those who drafted him third overall…like me.

Michael Turner owners had to be very frustrated this past year. His injured ankle did not help potential fantasy playoff teams get over the top.

RB Willis McGahee should thank Ray Rice for prolonging his career. He tallied only 544 yards but punched in 12 TD!

RB Reggie Bush: excellent athlete, NFL role player, not a superstar. Same goes for WR Roy Williams of Dallas.

RB Cadillac Williams came back from about 35 knee surgeries to post 1,040 total yards and seven total touchdowns. That is better overall production than the afore-mentioned Reggie Bush or Roy Williams.

Why does no one ever want RB Thomas Jones? He had over 2,700 yards and 27 touchdowns rushing the last two seasons. Yet the Jets signed RB LaDainian Tomlinson, clearly dogged by injuries, in Jones’ place…

WR Steve Smith was the first Giants receiver to make the Pro Bowl in 41 years, even if it was as an alternate.

What happened to “Steeler Football” and “The Big Blue Wrecking Crew?” Do we consider Pittsburgh and the Giants “finesse” teams now?

WR Sidney Rice should thank Brett Favre for saving his career.

I have to admit, I was amazed at TE Vernon Davis’ breakout year. I never thought I’d see him lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns.

For all of the offseason nonsense with WR Brandon Marshall, he was awfully productive (101 catches, ten touchdowns).

Rookie WRs Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks recorded same number of receiving yards (790) and touchdowns (six).

In fact, several rookie wide receivers made significant contributions this past year, which I found to be rather impressive:
    -  Austin Collie (676 yards, seven TD)
    -  Mike Wallace (756 yards, six TD, 19.4 yards/rec)
    -  Kenny Britt (701 yards, three TD)
    -  Jeremy Maclin (762 yards, four TD)
    -  Mohammed Massaquoi (624 yards, three TD, 18.4 yards/rec)

(Writing the 2011 third-year breakouts should be a lot of fun, by the way)

Were you that guy who would say things like, “Oh Garcon…another touchdown please? Chop, chop!”

Do you think the Bucs knew what they were doing when they only gave WR Antonio Bryant a one-year deal after the monster 2008 season?

Do you think the Bengals don’t know what they are doing giving Bryant a four-year deal worth $28 million?

WR Miles Austin’s ADP in non-IDP leagues was 172nd overall. In IDP leagues, he went 200th overall. That’s called value, ladies and gentlemen.

Third Down - Third-Year Receiver Breakouts (Revisited)

Let’s revisit my third-year receiver breakouts article and see if I was able to guide you all in the right direction in 2009. Since I am an accountable kind of guy, I’ll even stand by my quotes, no matter how right or wrong I may have been.

Quote: “…Perhaps [QB Daunte] Culpepper can re-create some old magic with [WR Calvin] Johnson abusing defenders; if [Head Coach Jim] Schwartz gives the green light to do it, get ready for an even bigger showing than the 78/1331/12…”

Verdict: Oops! I wasn’t even close. Despite Johnson’s past success with musical quarterbacks, it didn’t work this year. Rookie QB Matt Stafford started most of the year and Johnson battled a knee injury on top of the inconsistency under center.

Quote: “Here is the question…is WR Dwayne Bowe ready for this [featured] role or does he need someone else to take the pressure off? The attention [TE Tony] Gonzalez received absolutely helped, but I would side with the former here…”

Verdict: And wrong again! 47 catches and only 11 games played on a team that was clearly rebuilding equals a bust campaign. Here’s hoping Charlie Weis can help transform the offense in 2010.

Quote: “…[WR Anthony] Gonzalez slides into a starting position on arguably the most productive offense of this decade and should have the most opportunities to rack up yards and touchdowns that he has ever had before.”

Verdict: Let’s be fair here. Gonzalez suffered a knee injury early in the season and never saw the opportunity to contribute all year. Let’s see how he works his way back into the rotation now that WR Pierre Garcon has emerged.

Quote: “If [WR Anquan] Boldin stays in Arizona for the duration of 2009, then I expect a small drop back to earth, but still [WR Steve] Breaston has an opportunity to be very productive in three-wide sets.”

Verdict: This was right on the money. It was going to be tough for the Cardinals to duplicate 2008’s production in the passing game. What was probably more problematic was Breaston’s all-purpose yardage total dropping by almost 900 yards (if your league counts all-purpose yards as a stat, of course). He’ll get a real opportunity now that Boldin is in Baltimore.

Quote: “…but now is the time for [WR Tedd Ginn] to make an impact if the Dolphins wish to make the leap forward into serious contention in the AFC. If not, then this former ninth-overall pick will be cemented as one of the biggest reaches for a return specialist in NFL Draft history.”

Verdict: Ginn found the end zone more times returning kicks than he did as a receiver in 2009. All offensive totals dropped across the board. Picking Ginn 9th overall has to be one of the worst moves ever.

Quote: “With the unsettling wide receiver situation in Oakland right now, [TE Zach] Miller remains the primary target in the passing game heading into September…”

Verdict: Despite having played with no quarterback for the last three years, his receptions and yardage totals increased every year. Still, Miller finds it tough to score touchdowns since the Raiders prefer to run instead of allow QB JaMarcus Russell to sail another pass over a receiver’s head.

Quote: “With a complete off-season program perhaps Manning can get more comfortable with the most game-experienced members of the receiving group, WR Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss.”

Verdict: Plaxico Burress’ absence led to WR Steve Smith finishing second in the NFL in receptions, behind WR Wes Welker, good enough to be a Pro Bowl alternate. Boss had another top 15 season for tight ends.

Quote: “[TE Greg] Olsen is probably the most complete receiver of the group and deserves the most looks in the passing game; whether or not that happens will remain to be seen and that should impact whether we see a continued up-tick in his numbers.”

Verdict: Despite the slow start and sloppy play from QB Jay Cutler for most of the year, Olsen still posted team highs in receptions (60) and touchdowns (eight). If Cutler can get his head on straight, Olsen could be even better in 2010.

Quote: “…and then there is [WR Jason] Hill, who has the tools to be a solid receiver. However, there are two questions to be answered: 1) who will win the starting quarterback job, and 2) which receiver(s) will the new quarterback develop chemistry with?”

Verdict: Answering the questions: 1) Shaun Hill then Alex Smith, neither of which threw much to Jason Hill. 2) Everyone else but Jason Hill. Not a very promising outlook moving forward.

Quote: “…so if he can’t beat out WR Malcolm Floyd, we can likely dismiss [WR “Buster”] Davis as a viable player in San Diego.”

Verdict: Does “Buster” mean even more of a bust than usual? Good luck in the UFL.

Quote: “Since budding star WR Greg Jennings and ageless veteran WR Donald Driver are entrenched as the starters, and [WR Jordy] Nelson earned Rodgers trust out of the gate, [WR James] Jones has his work cut out for him if he is going to fulfill the third-year breakout phenomenon.”

Verdict: Jones scored five touchdowns, but still hasn’t reached his rookie reception and yardage totals. Someone ahead of him on the depth chart will have to suffer an injury for Jones to have a true breakout year.

Quote: “…[WR Sidney] Rice is going to need to get his act together quickly if he wants to find success. Otherwise, he is going to have to look outside of Minnesota for that opportunity.”

Verdict: All you need is QB Brett Favre to show up and he’ll save your career! A fantastic campaign by Rice (83 rec, 1312 yards, 8 TD) on a team loaded with skill talent.

Quote: “Given Head Coach John Fox’s conservative nature… this approach will lead to limited opportunities in the passing game, and therefore [WR Dwayne] Jarrett has a massive uphill climb to break out in 2009.”

Verdict: Coupled with a lazy attitude, the conservative offense led to only 17 receptions for Jarrett. But hey, he scored a touchdown this year!

Quote: “If [WR Robert] Meachem is going to have a breakthrough year, he needs to get himself higher than fifth on Brees’ priority list.”

Verdict: Meachem was high enough on the priority list to score nine times on just 45 catches and 722 yards. I’m not sure that this is a breakout year, but there is plenty of hope Meachem can continue to improve in 2010.

Quote: “The intriguing battle heading into training camp should be between [WR David] Clowney and [WR Chansi] Stuckey.”

Verdict: Or Clowney can show why Green Bay didn’t want him and Stuckey was sent to Cleveland.

Quote: “Jacksonville does have a good amount of receiving talent that could bring some unexpected balance and therefore some opportunities for [WR Mike] Walker to contribute in the passing game should he claim the second starting WR job.”

Verdict: Despite a clash with Jack Del Rio, Walker became the go-to guy in the passing game with 63 receptions, 869 yards, and seven touchdowns.

Quote: “[WR Johnnie Lee] Higgins has a chance to put his speed to good use on the offensive end to help stretch the field as a big-play receiver and open up some running lanes for the underrated three-headed rushing attack…”

Verdict: I’m thinking Higgins should stick with returning punts and kicks.

Quote: “Even though he is behind WR Donnie Avery and WR Keenan Burton on the depth chart, WR Derek Stanley can be a fantastic deep threat.”

Verdict: A Stanley Steemer would have been a more viable option in the Rams passing game.

Fourth Down - Strength of Schedule Projections (Revisited)

In 2009, we debuted a new way to investigate strength of schedule. Rather than taking the previous years records and adding them up, we used a new method of projection that incorporated parity stats, as well as talent ratings, the Vegas Over/Under win totals, and a little bit of necessary subjective opinion of the 32 teams.

If you compare the traditional method (using the previous year's records) versus my projections based on talent for the season, I was never off on one team by more than 51 percentage points, compared to the conventional way (who was off on 14 teams by anywhere from 54 to 115 points!). Adding up how far off each method was for all 32 teams, I was off by 817 points, while the traditional method was off by 1511 points.

The complete comparison chart is listed below.

Team           Act09SOS      MySOS     TradSOS     ActDeltaMy     ActDeltaTrad
Arizona          0.445       0.496      0.441          51               4
Atlanta          0.496       0.509      0.588          13              92
Baltimore        0.508       0.507      0.438           1              70
Buffalo          0.500       0.517      0.570          17              70
Carolina         0.477       0.513      0.592          36             115
Chicago          0.504       0.490      0.414          14              90
Cincinnati       0.539       0.508      0.465          31              74
Cleveland        0.516       0.493      0.449          23              67
Dallas           0.543       0.510      0.516          33              27
Denver           0.484       0.522      0.480          38               4
Detroit          0.508       0.511      0.467           3              41
Green Bay        0.488       0.478      0.428          10              60
Houston          0.547       0.500      0.506          47              41
Indianapolis     0.516       0.500      0.512          16               4
Jacksonville     0.535       0.509      0.516          26              19
Kansas City      0.500       0.494      0.484           6              16
Miami            0.500       0.547      0.594          47              94
Minnesota        0.504       0.503      0.420           1              84
N.Y. Giants      0.527       0.481      0.527          46               0
N.Y. Jets        0.500       0.501      0.590           1              90
New England      0.531       0.484      0.557          47              26
New Orleans      0.469       0.483      0.568          14              99
Oakland          0.500       0.504      0.480           4              20
Philadelphia     0.520       0.490      0.535          30              15
Pittsburgh       0.488       0.466      0.434          22              54
San Diego        0.453       0.469      0.484          16              31
San Francisco    0.457       0.504      0.443          47              14
Seattle          0.453       0.474      0.457          21               4
St. Louis        0.449       0.507      0.465          58              16
Tampa Bay        0.480       0.531      0.580          51             100
Tennessee        0.547       0.532      0.508          15              39
Washington       0.523       0.491      0.492          32              31
Total                                                 817            1511

Key:

Act09SOS: Actual SOS from 2009
MySOS: The method I used in the June 2009 article
TradSOS: The “traditional” SOS method using previous year’s records
ActDeltaMy: The difference between actual SOS and my method
ActDeltaTrad: The difference between actual SOS and the traditional method

While the method I used wasn’t perfect, it was twice as accurate as using the traditional method of SOS. Could it use some tweaks? Certainly, as long as they make sense. I may factor in the order in which a team plays their games (for example, division “sandwich” games) or adding weight for “revenge” games.

What do you say? Feel free to suggest components to add by sending a PM to my inbox on the FF Mastermind web site, and I can run some tests for the upcoming year!