7/12/2010
By Michael Nazarek

 

As we march towards the release of Version II of our Pre-Season Draft Guide later this month, I look to the teams out west…

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos: Once again, the Broncos struggled down the stretch and failed to make the playoffs. HC Josh McDaniels failed to right the ship late in the season with four straight losses, but remains in firm control in 2010. QB Kyle Orton was mediocre at best in 2009, but returns as the starting QB heading into training camp, albeit on a one-year restricted free-agent tender contract. The team acquired QB Brady Quinn from the Browns this off-season, but he’s not expected to start. In addition, the Broncos drafted QB Tim Tebow in April, as their QB of the future despite the many question marks regarding his effectiveness in the NFL. Let’s just say the QB position for the Broncos is one area fantasy owners should probably avoid this summer. In the running game, second-year RB Knowshon Moreno worked his way into the starting job in his rookie season, but hit the "rookie wall" and struggled down the stretch. Still, he returns as the starter with much promise. Veteran RB Correll Buckhalter returns as the change of pace back, while RB J.J. Arrington was re-signed after being cut last summer for depth. Gone are RB LaMont Jordan and RB Ryan Torain. RB Kolby Smith was recently claimed to add more depth as well. In the passing game, WR Brandon Marshall finally got his wish and was traded to Miami and got his big money deal. Unfortunately, that leaves only veterans WR Eddie Royal, WR Jabar Gaffney, WR Brandon Stokley, and WR Brandon Lloyd, along with rookies WR Demaryius Thomas and WR Eric Decker to anchor the wideout corps. The rookies have potential, but no one can replace Marshall. If Royal is used correctly in the slot as a primary target, he could have decent fantasy value. Gaffney will have some good moments, but I’m far from thrilled with this team’s direction. At tight end, the Broncos traded TE Tony Scheffler to Detroit, leaving veteran TE Daniel Graham as the default starter. Graham is a better blocker than pass-catcher. PK Matt Prater returns for another season, but his fantasy value slips since it's apparent the Broncos will struggle to score consistently in 2010. Quick Draft Summary: Besides Tebow and the two wideouts, the Broncos drafted three offensive linemen and three defensive players.

Kansas City Chiefs: New head coach, same poor result in 2009, another losing season for the Chiefs. QB Matt Cassel played nowhere near as well as he did when he was a Patriot, but the Chiefs certainly don’t have the talent to surround Cassel that the Patriots did. Regardless, Cassel returns as the starter, one with questionable potential as anything more than a fantasy backup. QB Brodie Croyle is the backup now, as QB Tyler Thigpen is now a Dolphin. In the running game, RB Larry Johnson is long gone, while RB Jamaal Charles stepped up into the starting role and produced very good numbers in the second half on 2009. RB Kolby Smith was released after the team signed veteran RB Thomas Jones to keep Charles fresh. Don’t be shocked if Jones steals more touches from Charles than people expect. He’s a very good inside runner, especially near the goal. The team also drafted RB Dexter McCluster in April, a versatile player with great speed. He’ll likely see third down action, and steal passes out of the backfield. The team is also lining him up as a receiver, as they want to get him involved in any way possible his rookie season. In the passing game, WR Dwayne Bowe remains the most talented wideout on the team, but continues to be an enigma. He was suspended for four games last season, but returns as the likely #1 WR. Veteran WR Chris Chambers also returns after making a surprising contribution last year after being signed off the scrap heap when the Chargers cut him. WR Mark Bradley is gone, as the team signed WR Jerhame Urban during free agency. Urban is likely to fill the #3 WR role. WR Terrance Copper and WR Lance Long return for depth. At tight end, TE Brad Cottam and TE Leonard Pope will battle to start, but neither are true fantasy producers. The team drafted TE Tony Moeaki in the third round, as a possible TE of the future. It’s probably best to avoid this position on the Chiefs in fantasy drafts this summer. PK Ryan Succop returns for his second season, but a lack of scoring chances is likely to keep him from being a top 12 fantasy kicker. Quick Draft Summary: The Chiefs drafted four defensive players and one offensive guard with their other choices.

Oakland Raiders: Once again, the Raiders lost more than 10 games in 2009. The good news for the team is the fact that QB JaMarcus Russell was released after the team acquired QB Jason Campbell during April’s NFL draft. Campbell immediately upgrades the entire Raiders offense, but that won’t make him a fantasy starter. Still, the potential for success is much greater with him in command. QB Bruce Gradkowski and QB Kyle Boller will back up Campbell. In the running game, RB Darrin McFadden and RB Michael Bush will battle it out this summer for the starting job, after veteran RB Justin Fargas was released. McFadden catches passes well out of the backfield, but Bush could see most of the goal line work regardless whom starts. In the passing game, WR Javon Walker is finally gone, leaving WR Chaz Schilens, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, and WR Louis Murphy as the primary receivers. This trio will be much more productive than they were last season, but it’s questionable if that will mean much for fantasy owners. WR Johnnie Lee Higgins returns for depth. TE Zach Miller remains the most productive and dangerous receiver on the team, as his fantasy value gets a nice boost with the arrival of Campbell. TE Tony Stewart and TE John Owens provide backup for Miller. PK Sebastian Janikowski returns, and could actually be a fantasy factor is Campbell supplies the team enough juice offensively to boost Janikowski’s scoring chances. Quick Draft Summary: 4th-round draft pick WR Jacoby Ford has a chance to make an impact due to the rather weak WR corps. Remember, Murphy was a 4th-rounder last year. Otherwise, the draft for the Raiders was mostly filled with defensive players.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers easily won their division again in 2009, but lost to the surprising Jets at home in the playoffs. Another season, another disappointment. As a result, more changes have been made. QB Philip Rivers is not one of the changes. He had another nice season in 2009 and returns as the clear leader. QB Billy Volek returns to back up Rivers. Ricers remains a solid fantasy starter despite the turmoil existing in the passing game. In the running game, former elite STUD RB LaDainian Tomlinson was cut loose this off-season and signed with the Jets. RB Darren Sproles was re-signed for one season, but isn’t expected to start in Tomlinson’s absence. Instead, the team drafted RB Ryan Mathews in April. They have high hopes that not only will he start, but be nearly as productive as Tomlinson has been. Certainly, the opportunity for solid production will be there, but can he immediately produce? The team has added RB Marcus Mason for depth at the position. The turmoil I mentioned in the passing game surrounds the contract situation of restricted free-agent WR Vincent Jackson. He refuses to sign his one-year tender and the team doesn’t want to offer him a long-term deal. As a result, they lowered his tender offer and Jackson appears set to sit out the first 10 games only to report and play the final six game to get a year of service under his belt. This could get really ugly before it gets better, as GM A.J. Smith doesn’t cave to these types of situations. It will certainly be interesting to see if a trade is eventually made to solve the problem. The Chargers cut WR Chris Chambers during the 2009 season, leaving WR Malcom Floyd as the most experienced wideout remaining on the roster. At the current time, he’s the #1 WR and makes a nice sleeper fantasy pick. WR Craig Davis has disappointed in his short career, but has the chance to make up for that, provided he actually steps up and remains healthy. Otherwise, it appears WR Legedu Naanee ands newly signed WR Josh Reed are in line to fill the #2 and #3 WR slots respectively. At tight end, TE Antonio Gates continued to shine, and could see even more targets if Jackson is absent in 2010. He’s battling a foot issue, but one that should be cleared up by training camp. Gates remains an elite fantasy producer. TE Brandon Manumaleuna is gone, leaving newly signed TE Randy McMichael to back up Gates. Don’t be shocked to see more 2-TE sets with McMichael due to the wideout issue. PK Nate Kaeding returns and is an elite fantasy producing kicker. Quick Draft Summary: 5th-round draft pick QB Jonathan Crompton and 7th-rounder TE Dedrick Epps are both developmental picks. The other three picks were defensive players.

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals won back-to-back division titles over the past two years, but failed to make a repeat appearance in the Super Bowl last season. Unfortunately, QB Kurt Warner has retired, leaving QB Matt Leinart as the penciled in starter. To date, his play on the field has been less than impressive, so the team signed QB Derek Anderson for insurance. Yeah, I’m not impressed either. Bottom Line: Lacking a quality QB will KILL the Cardinals, and Anderson won’t fit the bill. The team better hope that Leinart develops quickly, or this could be a long season in Arizona. In the running game, RB Tim Hightower returns as the starter, but second-year RB Chris Wells impressed late last year, seeing most of the workload. This arrangement should continue in 2010, making Wells the more valuable fantasy player. RB Jason Wright returns for depth. In the passing game, WR Larry Fitzgerald returns as the clear #1 WR, as the team finally traded unhappy WR Anquan Boldin to the Ravens this off-season. Fitzgerald remains an elite fantasy producer, but his upside should be tempered by Leinart’s slow development. WR Steve Breaston takes over for Boldin as the #2 WR, while WR Early Doucet fills the #3 WR job since WR Jerhame Urban signed with the Chiefs. Fantasy owners who draft Breaston or Doucet are clearly betting that Leinart is the real deal, something I question. At tight end, TE Ben Patrick and TE Anthony Becht will share the job, while TE Stephen Spach provides depth. Not much fantasy value here. PK Neil Rackers has been replaced with PK Jay Feely. If the offense struggles, so will Feely’s production, making him only a decent fantasy backup at best. Quick Draft Summary: 3rd-round draft pick WR Andre Roberts is likely to see most of his action in the return game. The Cardinals also drafted a QB and TE as developmental choices late, while also taking four defensive players.

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers actually finished with a decent 8-8 in 2009, but missed the playoffs again. HC Mike Singletary kept his job, but OC Mike Martz was fired. That doesn’t mean the offense wasn’t fairly successful, as QB Alex Smith emerged as a decent starter in the latter portion of the season. He returns as the starter, but must continue to develop if the team is to compete for a real playoff berth in 2010. In fantasy terms, he’s still a risky fantasy backup. QB David Carr was signed to replace QB Shaun Hill as the primary backup. In the running game, RB Frank Gore remains the man here, and should see more carries this season with Martz in Chicago. He remains an elite fantasy STUD RB and top five overall fantasy pick. Second-year RB Glen Coffee will back up Gore, while the team drafted RB Anthony Dixon for depth in April. In the passing game, veteran WR Isaac Bruce was traded to the Rams and promptly retired. Second-year WR Michael Crabtree is the new #1 WR, showing solid promise late last year. WR Josh Morgan is the other starter, and has a bit of potential as a late-round fantasy sleeper. WR Arnaz Battle is gone, as the 49ers acquired WR/KR Ted Ginn from the Dolphins to boost the return game and fill depth at wideout. WR Jason Hill and WR Brtandon Jones return to provide more depth, although Jones could be eventually released before the season begins. TE Vernon Davis proved me wrong last year by blowing up to score a whopping 13 times, mostly via the skinny post down the middle. He returns as the starter, but I wouldn’t expect another double-digit scoring season from him. TE Delanie Walker returns to back up Davis. PK Joe Nedney remains one of the most accurate kickers in the league, but inconsistent scoring chances will hurt him again in 2010. Quick Draft Summary: The 49ers drafted a WR and TE in the 6th round as developmental picks. The rest of their draft consisted of offensive linemen and defensive players.

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks struggled again in 2009, winning just five games. QB Matt Hasselbeck wasn’t the QB he was when the team was winning their division, and it showed. However, the team isn’t giving up on him yet, as he’s set to return as the starter for at least one more season. Let’s just call him a risky fantasy backup for 2010. QB Seneca Wallace is gone, as the team acquired QB Charlie Whitehurst, as a possible QB of the future. Veteran QB J.P. Losman has been signed for depth at the position. In the running game, RB Julius Jones returns, but will have to earn the starting job. RB Justin Forsett is well liked by the coaches, and could push Jones to the bench. The team acquired RB LenDale White on draft day, but promptly released him as he was suspended four games for a substance abuse violation. Seattle also acquired RB Leon Washington (broken leg) from the Jets. They hope he’ll be ready to contribute by week #1 as a chance of pace RB. RB Quinton Ganther was signed for depth. It could develop into an ugly RBBC in Seattle this season. In the passing game, veteran WR T.J. Houshmanzadeh returns, coming off a disappointing season. WR Nate Burleson left to sign with the Lions, while veteran WR Deion Branch returns in hopes of filling a starting job. Second-year WR Deon Butler has some potential, along with rookie WR Golden Tate. WR Mike Williams and WR Ben Obomanu are on the roster for depth. The Seahawks lack an experienced and healthy game-breaker at wideout, something that will hinder their passing game. Veteran TE John Carlson returns, and definitely has top 10 talent at the position, but was too often asked to block in 2009. That being said, he’s still worth a middle fantasy draft pick if you choose to wait on a fantasy starting TE. Veteran TE Chris Baker was signed to back up Carlson. PK Olindo Mare has improved his accuracy in recent years, but the offensive struggles to provide scoring chances make him nothing more than a fantasy backup. Quick Draft Summary: The Seahawks drafted a developmental FB and TE late in the April draft. The rest of their picks were defensive players and an offensive tackle.

St. Louis Rams: The Rams won just once in 2009. As a result, they got the first pick in April’s NFL draft and chose their QB of the future, QB Sam Bradford. Veteran QB Marc Bulger struggled through another injury-filled season in 2009, so the team cut him this off-season. They signed veteran QB A.J. Feeley as a replacement until Bradford is ready to play. If I were the Rams, I’d start Bradford from day #1, provided he shows enough in the preseason to warrant it. Regardless, fantasy owners should only consider Bradford as a #3 fantasy QB with upside in their draft. In the running game, elite STUD RB Steven Jackson remains the only real consistent fantasy producer on the team. He’s a first round draft pick in just about any fantasy draft this summer. RB Kenneth Darby returns to back up Jackson, but the team is considering signing free-agent RB Brian Westbrook due to their weakness behind Jackson. In the passing game, WR Donnie Avery and WR Laurent Robinson (torn ACL) return as the probable starters with WR Keenan Burton, WR Danny Amendola, and WR Brandon Gibson providing depth. Avery still has nice potential, provided he develops quick chemistry with Bradford. At tight end, veteran TE Randy McMichael was not re-signed, and is now a Charger. Veteran TE Billy Bajema becomes the starter, while the team did draft two tight ends late in April’s draft. Obviously, you’ll want to avoid this position for the Rams in your draft this summer. PK Josh Brown remains a big fantasy risk in 2010 due to the inconsistent scoring chances he’ll see again this season. Quick Draft Summary: 4th-round draft pick WR Mardy Gilyard is likely to see more action in the return game than at the wideout position. The rest of the Rams rookie class contains six defensive players and an offensive tackle.

That's a wrap on my "First Thoughts" for 2010! Be sure to keep an eye on FFMastermind.com in the coming weeks as we'll continue to bring you the very latest NFL news and informative "Eye in the Sky" training camp reports from our NFL team correspondents. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via the contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!