6/29/2010
By Michael Nazarek

 

It’s late June, and time to take a closer look at the South Division teams to see how things are shaping up...

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans: The Texans finally had a winning season in 2009, but 9-7 wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs. QB Matt Schaub finally stayed healthy and played a full season. In fact, he was a top 5 fantasy QB, and that should continue into 2010 barring injury. QB Dan Orlovsky returns to backup Schaub. Unfortunately, while the passing game excelled in 2009, the running game went down the toilet. RB Steve Slaton struggled with injuries (shoulder, neck) and fumbled the football several times. He returns, but is far from a lock to start. Youngster RB Arian Foster made an impact late last year, while the team drafted RB Ben Tate in April as a possible starter. Veteran RB Chris Brown also returns, but will have to prove he can stay healthy and make an impact or he could be cut by September. RB Ryan Moats was cut loose recently. Look for Slaton and Tate to battle it out for the starting job later this summer, even though Foster is likely to enter training camp as the starter on paper. It could develop into an ugly RBBC. In the passing game, WR Andre Johnson remains the STUD WR to own from this team. He blew up down the stretch last season, winning many fantasy owners titles in the process. Too bad #2 WR Kevin Walter pretty much fell off the map last year, scoring just twice. He was re-signed, but will have to battle WR Jacoby Jones to keep his job. Veteran WR Andre Davis and WR David Anderson return for depth. At tight end, TE Owen Daniels was on track for his best year ever when he tore his ACL at mid-season. He seems set to start in week #1, and remains a top 10 fantasy producer as long as he’s healthy. The team also signed TE Derek Fine and has TE Joel Dreessen and TE Anthony Hill for depth. PK Kris Brown’s starting job is under attack, as the team signed PK Neil Rackers to compete this summer. Whoever wins the job will be a very good fantasy backup. Quick Draft Summary: Other than two tight ends, the rest of the rookie class consists of offensive linemen and defensive players.

Indianapolis Colts: Once again, the Colts won their division and made it to the Super Bowl, but surprisingly lost to the upstart New Orleans Saints. Not much has changed here in the off-season, as QB Peyton Manning returns as the unquestioned leader of the team. And yes, he’s still an elite fantasy producer. Backup QB Jim Sorgi is gone, leaving QB Curtis Painter as the new primary backup. Manning best not get injured. In the running game, RB Joseph Addai didn’t have a big season rushing the football, but he did catch plenty of passes and scored quite often. More importantly, he kept rookie RB Donald Brown as the bench as a change of pace back. And when Brown suffered an injury, Addai got all the touches late in the season. That makes Addai a top 15 fantasy RB for 2010. As for Brown, he has more long-term potential, as Addai’s contract is up after the season is over. There could be a changing of the guard here late in the season. RB Mike Hart returns to fill the #3 RB role. In the passing game, elite STUD WR Reggie Wayne returns, while WR Pierre Garcon emerged as a viable #2 WR for the team. Second-year WR Austin Collie made a nice impact in the slot during his rookie season. The big question here is WR Anthony Gonzalez’s ability to return from a serious knee injury suffered in week #1 last season and whether he steals target from both Garcon and Collie. There’s a chance that another injury to Gonzalez could push him right off the roster altogether. The Colts are pleased to have the top tight end in the league right now in TE Dallas Clark. He blew up last year after Gonzalez went down and continues to play more like a wideout than a TE. Manning still doesn’t hesitate to look Clark’s way anytime he needs a big play. TE Gijon Robinson and TE Tom Santi return for depth. PK Adam Vinatieri has struggled through injuries and lack of scoring chances over the past few seasons, making him a risky fantasy choice. The team is looking to the future at this position, but does hope that Vinatieri can give them at least one more quality season provided his health holds up. It’s probably best to avoid him, primarily due to lack of FGA’s recently when he does play. Quick Draft Summary: The Colts drafted TE Brody Eldridge in the 5th round in April, hoping he can provide more depth at TE. Otherwise, the team drafted six defensive players and a guard.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars under-performed again in 2009, winning just seven games. They really struggled offensively on the road, as QB David Garrard threw just three TDs away from Jacksonville. Garrard returns as the starter, but his hold on that position isn’t near as tight as it once was. Let’s just say I don’t care for him. QB Luke McCown is the backup to Garrard. In the running game, elite fantasy STUD RB Maurice Jones-Drew showed what he can do when given a full workload… SHINE. He returns as the most dangerous weapon on the Jaguars roster for 2010. Second-year RB Rashad Jennings impressed when called upon as the backup last year, so he’ll enter 2010 in that role. Can you say HANDCUFF? FB Greg Jones returns, but don’t expect many carries from him this season. In the passing game, WR Mike Sims-Walker emerged as the team’s #1 WR, but struggled to produce much on the road, especially against tough competition. Walker should be considered a great #3 fantasy WR or a decent #2 at best. Second-year WR Mike Thomas had a few nice moments last year as a rookie, and seems on track to start opposite Sims-Walker. The team signed WR Kassim Osgood to boost the WR corps, but he struggled in OTAs. WR Troy Williamson also returns, coming off a season-long injury. Too bad he was invisible for most of the OTAs. WR Jarett Dillard also returns to battle for playing time. Let’s just say this team needs more help at wideout. At tight end, TE Marcedes Lewis returns, but has lost much of his shine, as he’s yet to score more than twice in any of his four NFL seasons. Second-year TE Zach Miller could be a nice sleeper, as he scored twice last year in limited action. PK Josh Scobee remains a solid kicker, but lack of scoring chances hurt his production in 2009 and could negatively affect his production again this year. Quick Draft Summary: The Jaguar drafted five defensive players in April, as well as RB Deji Karim in the 6th round.

Tennessee Titans: It was a tale of two seasons for the Titans in 2009. In the first half, nothing went right, but then they turned it around and nearly made the playoffs. That second half charge was led by QB Vince Young, whom replaced an ineffective QB Kerry Collins as the starter after the BYE. In fantasy terms, Young remains a fantasy backup at best, but he’s cut down on his mistakes and appears to give the team the best chance to win. With Young starting, Colins is set to back him up in 2010. In the running game, RB Chris Johnson broke the 2,000-yard rushing barrier, becoming Mr. Everything for the Titans. He returns as the clear starter after the team traded RB LenDale White to the Seahawks in April. Unfortunately, Johnson wants a new deal, but the Titans aren’t about to give him one. This could turn ugly, but something tells me Johnson won’t hold out long enough to lose a year of service, meaning he’ll be in camp by early August. Second-year RB Javon Ringer returns as the primary backup to Johnson, while undrafted rookies RB Stafon Johnson and RB LeGarrette Blount battle it out for the #3 RB job. If you draft Johnson this summer, drafting Ringer as a handcuff is a very good idea. In the passing game, WR Nate Washington and WR Kenny Britt return as the penciled in starters. Britt has admittedly had a horrible off-season in terms of bad attitude and poor performance in OTAs. Look for that to change once training camp opens. Britt has the most potential of any wideout on the team, making him a decent fantasy depth pick. Inconsistent WR Justin Gage and WR Lavelle Hawkins return for depth. At the tight end position, starting TE Bo Scaife re-signed, but veteran TE Alge Crumpler has left for New England. Second-year TE Jared Cook much remain healthy and play with more consistency to make any sort of impact. PK Rob Bironas continues to produce in this run-first offense, and remains a solid fantasy choice at his position. Quick Draft Summary: Third-round draft pick WR Damian Williams has a chance to contribute is he develops quickly due to an overall weak wideout corps. Sixth-rounder QB Rusty Smith and 7th-rounder WR Marc Mariani appear to be developmental picks. The remaining six draft picks were all defensive players.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons: Late season injuries to both QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner killed the Falcons’ playoff chances. But both are now healthy and return in an effort to lead the team back to the playoffs in 2010. And although the team says they won’t run Turner into the ground, the Falcons remain primarily a run-oriented unit. That means Ryan will more often than not disappoint his fantasy owners. He’ll have a big game, followed by 2-3 borderline ones. QB Chris Redman returns to back up Ryan. As for Turner, look for a nice rebound season from the workhorse, provided he stays healthy. He is certainly a top 10 fantasy RB. RB Jerious Norwood and RB Jason Snelling return to provide a third-down and primary backup option to Turner. In the passing game, WR Roddy White has become an elite fantasy producer and clear #1 WR for the Falcons. WR Michael Jenkins was extended before the 2009 season, and promptly disappointed. He’ll have to battle to keep his starting job ahead of WR Harry Douglas. Veteran WR Brian Finneran returns for depth purposes. At tight end, TE Tony Gonzalez had a big year with his new team in 2009. He returns for at least one more season, primed for a playoff run. As long as he stays healthy, Gonzo should produce top 5 fantasy TE numbers in 2010. TE Justin Peelle returns to back up Gonzalez. At kicker, PK Jason Elam finally lost his mojo and was let go last season. PK Matt Bryant took over and did an OK job. However, it doesn’t appear that he’ll see enough scoring chances for serious fantasy consideration. Quick Draft Summary: Fifth-round draft pick WR Kerry Meier appears to be a developmental player, while the other picks were offensive linemen or defensive players.

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers struggled last year, mostly due to poor play from QB Jake Delhomme. Well, the team cut him loose and has put their fate in the hands of inexperienced QB Matt Moore. He played fairly well late last season, but there are doubts that he can produce solid results over the course of a full year. Time will tell, but saying he’s anything more than a decent #3 fantasy QB with upside is pushing it. Besides, the team drafted QB Jimmy Clausen in April, so don’t be shocked if he’s starting by season’s end. Bottom Line: This team remains a running unit, and that means RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart will carry the load once again. If he stays healthy, Williams is a top 10 fantasy RB, while Stewart showed us late last year he could be top 10, if he started. Still, Stewart is a solid #3 fantasy RB. RB Mike Goodson returns for depth purposes. In the passing game, WR Steve Smith remains an elite fantasy producer when the QB can accurately get him the football each week. He recently broke his arm playing flag football, but should be OK for week #1. Let’s just call him a solid #2 fantasy WR due to his injury and situation. WR Muhsin Muhammad was not re-signed and retired. WR Dwayne Jarrett has been a bust and is unlikely to make an impact in 2010. The team drafted WR Brandon Lafell in April, and he has a good chance to start come week #1. Can you say sleeper? WR Kenny Moore returns for depth. TE Jeff King returns as the starter, but is used primarily as a blocker, while TE Dante Rosario will blow up every 10 games or so. In other words, the tight ends here still aren’t worth much for fantasy owners. PK John Kasay remains one of the most accurate kickers in the game, but his lack of scoring chances continue to keep him down in the backup fantasy kicker category. Quick Draft Summary: With the exception of 3rd-round draft pick WR Armanti Edwards and 6th-rounder WR David Gettis, the majority of the rest of the Panthers draft picks were defensive players.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints won it all in 2009, a huge surprise to everyone! The leader of the team was QB Drew Brees, and after the big season he had, he and the Saints deserved their championship. Brees returns in 2010 and remains an elite fantasy producer. Veteran QB Mark Brunell was not re-signed, leaving a hole to fill at the backup QB position. The team drafted QB Sean Canfield in the 7th round in April, but he’s far from ready to play in the NFL. In the running game, RB Pierre Thomas returns as the starter, but wants a new long-term contract. He did sign his restricted free-agent tender, so a holdout appears unlikely. RB Reggie Bush returns to fill the change of pace and third-down RB roles. RB Mike Bell was not resigned and is now and Eagle. RB Lynell Hamilton is set to fill the #3 RB role, which likely means more scoring chances for Thomas. In the passing game, WR Marques Colston returns as the #1 WR, but the gap between him and the rest of the corps is a small one. WR Robert Meachem is emerging as a solid #2 WR, while WR Devery Henderson returns as a deep threat. WR Lance Moore didn’t produce much last year, but returns and rounds out a very experienced corps. At tight end, TE Jeremy Shockey returns as the starter. He was able to play most of last year, but was up and down in production. He’s simply no longer a top 10 fantasy TE. TE David Thomas played well when Shockey couldn’t get on the field last year. He returns to fill the same role and back up Shockey. The team drafted TE Jimmy Graham in the third round in April, and they hope he’s their TE of the future. PK Garrett Hartley is a decent kicker on a high-powered scoring offense. That makes him a top 10 fantasy kicker, and a decent starter if you like to wait a bit to draft a kicker. Quick Draft Summary: The Saints other four picks were defensive players and offensive linemen.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers underwent a massive housecleaning last off-season, purging most of their older veterans and going with inexperience at most key positions. The result was a very ugly record, but the team did play better down the stretch. Veteran QB Byron Leftwich was stripped of the starting job early last season, and traded to the Steelers this off-season. QB Josh Freeman enters his second season as the clear starter, but still has a lot to learn. Fantasy value? A decent #3 fantasy QB, one with potential. QB Josh Johnson returns as the backup. In the running game, RB Cadillac Williams surprised everyone last year by starting and staying healthy. Still, he failed to rush for even 900 yards, but did score seven times. The coaches say they want RB Derrick Ward to see more touches, but all indications point to Williams sticking as the starter. That makes Williams an interesting #3/#4 fantasy RB. Ward has a bit more value in PPR system, but he’s clearly a depth fantasy pick right now. RB Earnest Graham returns as the starting fullback, while RB Clifton Smith returns for depth. In the passing game, WR Antonio Bryant was not re-signed, as the team continues to get younger. WR Michael Clayton returns, but he’s simply a useless player. Second-year WR Sammie Strouter could emerge as a starter, while the team acquired WR Reggie Brown from the Eagles this off-season. WR Maurice Stovall also returns for depth. The big moves offensively made in the draft were the choices of WR Arrelious Benn in the 3rd round and WR Mike Williams in the 4th. Thus far, Williams appears more NFL-ready than Benn, but training camp will sort out this situation. At tight end, TE Kellen Winslow became the team’s most valuable receiver in 2009, and that appears likely to continue this season. He had another off-season knee surgery (a clean-up), but is on track to be ready for camp. He is clearly still a top 10 fantasy TE, very underrated. Veteran TE Jerramy Stevens returns as the backup, and the coaches want to get him more involved in the passing game. PK Barth Connor is the kicker, but he’s unlikely to see enough scoring chances for serious fantasy consideration. Quick Draft Summary: The rest of the Bucs draft class included one punter and six defensive players.

That does it for the South divisions. Look for my views regarding the teams out in July.  All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!