5/10/2010
By Michael Nazarek

 

May is here and it’s time once again to take a look at the fantasy potential regarding all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming 2010 season. Free agency is over for the most part, and the NFL Draft recently took place, so teams will be making mostly small moves to tweak their rosters before training camps begin later this summer. Believe it or not, we are less than three months away from the start of those camps. I'm starting to get excited just thinking about it! As in years past, this series of articles will begin in the East and I'll work my way West. Let's get right to it, there's a lot to discuss...

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills: Once again, the Bills failed to make the playoffs last year and failed to hire a quality head coach like Mike Shanahan, so they were forced to hire Chan Gailey in an effort to make this team relevant again. QB Trent Edwards played his way out of a starting job, but remains on the team. The QB position is an open competition, meaning Edwards will compete along with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and QB Brian Brohm for the job. Any way you look at it, this isn’t a good thing, as a team needs to have a quality starter at QB to win and produce quality numbers for fantasy owners. RB Marshawn Lynch lost his starting job to RB Fred Jackson last year, but remains on the roster. Trade rumors circulated, but the Bills chose to keep him despite the fact they drafted RB C.J. Spiller in April. You can expect Jackson to remain the starter, while Spiller is used as a quick change of pace and possible third down back. That won’t leave Lynch with many touches. The Bills chose not to re-sign WR Terrell Owens, whom was a disappointment in 2009. That leaves WR Lee Evans as the clear #1 WR, as Buffalo also let WR Josh Reed walk. The Bills are hoping WR James Hardy recovers from injury to make an impact and second-year WR Steve Johnson develops quickly. The team also drafted WR Marcus Easley in the 4th round in April and signed WR Chad Jackson off the scrap heap. Bottom Line: Besides Evans, there isn’t much here, and as long as the QB struggles, so will Evans and the rest of the wideout corps. At tight end, second-year TE Shawn Nelson and veteran TE Derek Schouman return, while TE Derek Fine was released. The team also re-signed TE Joe Klopfenstein and has TE Michael Matthews. Bah! There’s not much fantasy potential here. PK Rian Lindell remains a decent kicker, but if the offense continues to struggle, he won’t see enough chances to score to be anything other than a decent fantasy backup at best. Quick Draft Summary: Besides Spiller and Easley, the Bills drafted four defensive players and a few offensive linemen along with QB Levi Brown in the 7th round.

Miami Dolphins: After making the playoffs in 2008, the Dolphins missed it in 2009, falling back to 7-9. As expected, QB Chad Pennington didn’t last the season as the starter, and was replaced by QB Chad Henne after a shoulder injury. Pennington was re-signed, but will only be the #3 QB. Henne remains the starter, while QB Tyler Thigpen is the backup. QB Pat White remains in the mix for seeing time in the wildcat, but has failed miserably as an actual quarterback. Henne has solid fantasy potential since the team acquired WR Brandon Marshall via trade. At tailback, RB Ronnie Brown is coming off another injury, this time to his foot. He’s unhappy and has yet to sign his restricted free-agent tender offer, but is expected to do so in June. Veteran RB Ricky Williams had a rebirth of sorts last season, and returns for at least one more go-around. With Marshall on the team, the wildcat could be all but dead. But that doesn’t mean this team won’t still run the football effectively. At wideout, Marshall is clearly the new #1 WR, as the team traded disappointing WR Tedd Ginn to the 49ers. That leaves WR Devon Bess and WR Greg Camarillo to fill the #2 and #3 WR roles. The team also has WR Brian Hartline for depth. Look for Marshall to remain an elite fantasy producer in Miami. They will look to get him the football near the goal, meaning less scores overall for the RB corps. At tight end, restricted free-agent TE Anthony Fasano was a big disappointment in 2009 coming off a surprisingly solid 2008. He often dropped easy catches and was dinged for much of the season. He’s yet to sign his tender, but is likely to do so at some point. The Dolphins also have TE Joey Haynos and TE Kory Sperry for depth. Bottom Line: None of the current Dolphins TEs inspire much fantasy potential. PK Rob Carpenter emerged last year as a decent fantasy producer. Best of all, you can wait to take him until the very end of your fantasy draft. Quick Draft Summary: All eight of their draft picks in April were offensive linemen or defensive players.

New England Patriots: The Patriots returned to the playoffs in 2009, but failed to make the big game. QB Tom Brady returned from a torn ACL to post some good, but not great, numbers for fantasy owners. He’ll still have his big games here and there, but the feel here is that he’s not an elite top 3 fantasy QB in 2010, especially since he’ll be without WR Wes Welker (torn ACL) for most of the season. Still, there’s no doubts he’s a solid fantasy starter. There remains a lack of talent behind Brady, so the team better hope he stays healthy. In the running game, all tailbacks return and are currently in the final seasons of their contracts. RB Laurence Maroney and RB Fred Taylor appear to be on the front line, with RB Sammy Morris standing by to fill in when called upon. RB Kevin Faulk also returns as the third down back. Maroney’s fumbling troubles cost him playing time late last year, so be careful if you assume he’ll start and carry most of the load. In the passing game, WR Randy Moss returns for the last year of his contract. This team could look much different in one year offensively. Regardless, Moss remains the primary #1 WR and an elite, if not sometimes inconsistent, fantasy producer. Welker’s return is uncertain, although many say he’s out until at least Thanksgiving. The rest of the corps is unproven (WR Ben Tate, WR Sam Aiken, WR Julian Edelman, WR Darnell Jenkins) or old (WR David Patten and WR Torry Holt). It does appear that Edelman will get the first crack at replacing Welker in the slot. Aiken is an inconsistent big-play maker. Holt claims he’s still got some left in the tank. We’ll see. Bottom Line: This wideout corps beyond Moss is very risky. At tight end, the team ditched TE Ben Watson and TE Chris Baker, and signed TE Alge Crumpler and drafted TE Rob Gronkowski and TE Aaron Hernandez. The signs here point to Gronkowski filling the pass-catching role on the team. PK Stephen Gostkowski returns as a solid fantasy kicker once again in 2010 due to the numerous scoring chances he’ll see. Quick Draft Summary: The Patriots chose WR Taylor Price in the third round for depth at wideout. Their other picks were offensive linemen or defensive players with the exception of 7th-rounder QB Zac Robinson.

New York Jets: The Jets surprised in a big way last season, nearly running their way into the big game. Second-year QB Mark Sanchez got off to a quick start as a rookie last year, only to struggle at mid-season. The Jets adjusted their game plan accordingly, taking the pressure off the passing game by running most of the time. The strategy worked, but they will be more balanced in 2010. And with the addition of WR Santonio Holmes, Sanchez has some fairly decent fantasy potential, but not much more than a backup at this point. QB Kellen Clemens returns as the backup, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s not on the roster come September. The team is eyeing veteran QB Mark Brunell, so he could easily replace Clemons at a later date. At tailback, the situation has changed quite a bit. RB Thomas Jones (released) and RB Leon Washington (traded) are both gone, as second-year RB Shonn Greene showed enough in the playoffs to earn the starting job. Veteran RB LaDainian Tomlinson was signed to catch passes and such on third down, while rookie RB Joe McKnight was drafted in the 4th round to fill Washington’s role. Greene has breakaway speed, so he’ll come at a premium in most fantasy drafts this summer. In the passing game, WR Jerricho Cotchery and WR Braylon Edwards returns as the lead WRs to begin the season since Holmes was suspended for the first four games due to substance abuse policy violations. The Jets also have WR Brad Smith and WR David Clowney for depth. Let’s just say it’s tough to place any of these receivers in the top 30 fantasy WRs due to the Jets’ lack of passing overall and Sanchez’s inexperience. TE Dustin Keller returns as the pass-catching tight end. He disappointed last year after a solid start. With the addition at wideout, Keller could take advantage of weaker coverage and rebound. TE Ben Hartsock was re-signed for depth. PK Jay Feely signed with the Cardinals, as the Jets are trying to rely upon PK Nick Folk to rebound at a big discount rate. Good luck with that risky strategy! Most smart fantasy owners will avoid Folk in their draft this summer. Quick Draft Summary: The Jets had only four picks in the April draft, and beyond McKnight, the team chose to draft a FB, a CB, and an OG.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: For once, the Cowboys didn’t fold and made the playoffs. Heck, they even won a playoff game! But only one. Still, HC Wade Phillips returns in 2010 and QB Tony Romo remains the leader of this flashy team. Romo also remains a solid fantasy starter, one with big-game abilities. Veteran QB Jon Kitna returns to back up Romo. In the running game, RB Marion Barber struggled to stay healthy in 2009, opening the door for RB Felix Jones to make a big impact. As a result, Jones is set to start in 2010, while Barber plays a complimentary/closer role for the Cowboys. RB Tashard Choice also returns as the #3 RB. It would likely take another injury by Barber or Jones to get Choice on the field for more than a handful of plays in any one game this coming season. Let’s just say in this RBBC, it’s tough to rank any of them in the top 20 fantasy RBs. In the passing game, WR Roy Williams disappointed again, while WR Miles Austin blew up as the primary #1 target, one with big-plays coming out his wazoo! Williams remains with the team, as the Cowboys paid him a big roster bonus and refuse to pay him only to see him make plays for another team. But unless a miracle happens, he’s likely gone come 2011. As for Austin, he’s still a restricted free-agent, but he’s going nowhere. It’s only a matter of time before the team gives him a long-term deal. WR Patrick Crayton and WR Sam Hurd both return, but are also both on the trading block after the team drafted WR Dez Bryant in April. Bryant is expected to start immediately, pushing both Crayton and Hurd further down the depth chart. One likely won’t be on the roster come September. TE Jason Witten struggled to score much in 2009 (one two TDs), but still was a pass-catching machine (career-high 69 catches). He could be underrated in many fantasy drafts later this summer, as Romo still likes to target him early and often. TE Marcellus Bennett disappointed last year, but the Cowboys are holding onto him, hoping he regains the flash he showed his rookie season. PK Nick Folk is long gone. The Cowboys don’t really have much of an option at kicker right now since PK Shaun Suisham was not re-signed. Keep an eye on this position for the Cowboys, as when a kicker emerges, he should be worth a look due to the many scoring chances he’ll see. Quick Draft Summary: Beyond Bryant, the Cowboys drafted four defensive players and one offensive tackle.

New York Giants: My favorite team fell apart during the season and missed the playoffs altogether in 2009 with a mediocre 8-8 record. QB Eli Manning did have his moments, since the running game struggled last year. He returns as a top 10 fantasy QB. QB David Carr was not re-signed, as the team chose instead to sign veteran QB Jim Sorgi. Let’s just hope Manning stays healthy. In the running game, RB Brandon Jacobs was a disappointment last year, but it was revealed that a knee injury hampered his performance. He returns as the starter, and could be a fantasy value if his health holds up in 2010. RB Ahmad Bradshaw also returns as the complimentary back. Bradshaw was hampered too throughout the season on bad feet/ankles. He underwent surgery (as did Jacobs), so there is hope for a solid rebound in the ground game. RB D.J. (Danny) Ware and RB Andre Brown (Achilles rupture) return to provide depth at the position. In the passing game, WR Steve Smith got off to a torrid start last season, and quickly became the favorite target of Manning without Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer on the roster. Second-year WR Hakeem Nicks showed big-play ability as the season wore on, as he has the edge for the other starting WR position in 2010. WR Mario Manningham made some plays, but also had trouble consistently catching passes. He’ll have to improve his play if he’s to continue to see solid opportunities to produce. WR Domenik Hixon and WR Sinorice Moss return for depth, although neither are locks to remain on the roster with second-year WR Ramses Barden and WR Derek Hagan also still in the mix. TE Kevin Boss returns as the starting tight end. He started slow in 2009, but became more of a factor as the season progressed. Still, he’s far from a top 10 fantasy TE. Second-year TE Travis Beckum must continue to develop consistent habits if he’s to make any impact at all. PK Lawrence Tynes returns as the kicker, coming off a solid 2009. He’s a nice fantasy option if you choose to wait until the end of your fantasy draft to take one. Quick Draft Summary: In April, the Giants drafted five defensive players, an offensive guard, and a punter to replace the retiring P Jeff Feagles.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles made the playoffs in 2009, but lost to Dallas. The big change for 2010 was the trade of QB Donovan McNabb to the Redskins. This is now QB Kevin Kolb’s team, as he was given an extension along with the starting job. QB Michael Vick becomes the primary backup, while the team drafted QB Michael Kafka in the 4th round in April to fill the #3 QB job. In the running game, RB Brian Westbrook was released, giving second-year RB LeSean McCoy the starting job. FB Leonard Weaver returns and remains a factor running with the football. The team also signed RB Mike Bell, a hard-nosed runner, especially near the goal. Weaver and Bell will steal scores from McCoy, keeping him out the top 15 fantasy RBs. In the passing game, WR DeSean Jackson returns as the class of the corps. He took a shot at McNabb after the trade, but he best keep his mouth shut and work to develop solid chemistry with Kolb if he’s to earn that high-paying long-term deal he wants and can’t get this off-season due to the CBA issues. WR Reggie Brown was traded, and second-year WR Jeremy Maclin returns as the other starter, while WR Jason Avant fills the #3 WR role. The team also re-signed WR Hank Baskett for depth. If Kolb continues on the right track, Jackson and Maclin could become quite an effective fantasy-producing tandem. TE Brent Celek returns as the unquestioned starter after his breakout season. He loses McNabb, but there’s no reason to believe that Kolb won’t use him just as much as McNabb, especially since Kolb only has a few career starts. Second-year TE Cornelius Ingram returns, coming off a torn ACL injury, as the backup. PK David Akers remains one of my favorite kickers, and is coming off one of his best seasons. Grab him if you can as your fantasy kicker, but not too early! Quick Draft Summary: The Eagles drafted defensive players in April with their first five picks. The did draft TE Clay Harbor in the 4th round for depth, as well as WR Riley Cooper in the 5th, and RB Charles Scott in the 6th. None of these skilled-position players factor in as immediate starters in 2010.

Washington Redskins: Once again, the Redskins failed to make the playoffs in 2009, so they got serious and hired HC Mike Shanahan to try to turn the ship around. On draft day, he traded QB Jason Campbell to the Oakland Raiders after acquiring QB Donovan McNabb from the Eagles before the event. As a Redskin, McNabb is a borderline fantasy starter. QB Rex Grossman was signed as the new backup, as this is clearly McNabb’s team. In the running game, RB Clinton Portis saw his 2009 season end due to a concussion. He returns for 2010, but is no longer the certain starter. Shanahan cut all the other tailbacks loose and the team signed RB Larry Johnson and RB Willie Parker to compete to start. My money is on Johnson to win it later in August. Bottom Line: Drafting any Redskins RB is no sure thing for fantasy owners this summer. In the passing game, WR Santana Moss struggled last year, but now has McNabb as his QB. Moss underwent off-season knee surgery, but is expected to be fine for training camp. He could see a rebound in his numbers if he stays healthy. WR Antwaan Randle El is once again a Steeler, as WR Devin Thomas and WR Malcolm Kelly will battle it out to start opposite Moss. The team also signed WR Joey Galloway, WR Bobby Wade, and WR Roydell Williams for depth. At least one of these three is unlikely to make the final roster. TE Chris Cooley returns, coming off a serious ankle injury. He’ll start and likely share some time with emerging TE Fred Davis, as Shanahan’s offense is expected to feature the TE often in 2010. Remember, McNabb connected very well with TE Brent Celek in Philly last season. PK Gano Graham and PK Justin Medlock are set to battle for the kicking job. Yuck! Quick Draft Summary: The Redskins drafted TE Dennis Morris and WR Terrence Austin late in April’s draft for depth. Their other picks were three offensive linemen and a linebacker.

That's a wrap for the two Eastern divisions. Be sure to join me over the coming weeks as I offer my First Thoughts on the other six divisions. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!