Ten years ago, I was gearing up to finish my junior year of college at small Division III Rowan University. While I was intensely focused on getting my degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering (seriously, I did not just party it up every night), I was also emotional and sometimes immature when things did not go as planned. For instance, I bombed a Control Systems exam and struggled to understand what was going on in my Signal Processing class, which led to some frustrating nights of extended study. I also recall being this way when it came to my interests in football. I followed all games and players and used to overreact to just about everything from Edgerrin James being drafted over Ricky Williams to the 1999 Rams being “the best offensive team I have ever seen.” The games were great to watch and I had been playing fantasy football for about ten years already by this point. But now as I enter my thirties, I realize that taking a step back and looking at things from a big-picture perspective instead of having tunnel vision was a very important part of my evolution as a sports fan.
So it is important that we also mature and evolve as fantasy football players. It becomes incredibly easy to get players on your team of which you have some connection. Maybe Hines Ward plays for your Pittsburgh Steelers and you have to have every Steelers player on your roster…even if he has started to decline and suffer more injuries. Perhaps Thomas Jones helped you win your first league title, and now you can not wait until next year to draft him so you end up grabbing him one round too soon. These are the types of missteps we want to avoid as fantasy team owners. With an obscene amount of once-fantastic Tier-1 and Tier-2 players that were made available to other teams in some capacity during this off-season beginning to show signs of deterioration, we need to be extra careful not to get too attached due to past performance. Remember, there is always a reason why some of these guys are not asked to return. It is always great to remember what these players have done for us in the past, but we also need to be aware of who we are going to usher in as the next great group.
The reality is that NFL teams need to get returns out of their draft choices immediately, which is a far cry from fifteen or twenty years ago. The 2007 Giants had a role in place for every one of their rookies and they all contributed to the championship run. Last year, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco each had very respectable seasons for first-year quarterbacks. Because of these events executives around the league feel have to feel the pressure to obtain instant results with as many draft picks as possible, particularly in the later rounds where some really talented kids are not counting as much against the salary cap as the veterans.
Take the Rams for example…they just released Torry Holt, a receiver who the fantasy community has loved for some time now, was due a big roster bonus after St. Louis compiled another double-digit loss season. However with Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton, and Derek Stanley on the roster the Rams apparently feel like those guys are talented enough and their combined 2009 salaries are likely close to the bonus that Holt was due on March 18th. So now we are forced to project the new Rams receivers based on potential, not based on what they have already done just because of a lack of data.
We can also look at the Cowboys release of Terrell Owens. You looked at the headline and probably said, “Wow,” especially after Jerry Jones told everyone that he was not going to do it. But when you look a little deeper at the numbers, he had his lowest yards/game (65.8) total since 1999, had his best games against incredibly weak opponents (home against Seattle and San Francisco), and his worst games against better teams (the Giants and Steelers). Plus he has not contributed to a playoff team in a meaningful way since the 2005 Super Bowl against New England. I guess we will see if Patrick Crayton or Miles Austin can be a real live #2 receiver and viable fantasy contributor.
The same goes for Marvin Harrison getting his pink slip from the Colts, but for a different reason. This is a guy you thought would retire in Indianapolis, but after that 2007 Super Bowl a balky knee has all of a sudden claimed another one of our fantasy football icons. Anthony Gonzalez has some huge shoes to fill.
It is hard to believe that these three bastions of fantasy football are all on their way down, and that is not even including the fact that LaDainian Tomlinson was available to potentially be traded after the Chargers placed the franchise tag on Darren Sproles. We have also seen Brian Westbrook fight through various injuries in 2008. Antonio Gates has battled injuries to his feet. Tom Brady is coming off of major knee surgery, too.
Fortunately, we have a new collection of exciting young players that have burst onto the scene over the past few seasons.
RB Adrian Peterson
He is your new face of the NFL. Peterson has given two Pro Bowls and one first team All-Pro season. He is tough, explosive, and loaded with big plays. Does he post a dud game every now and then? Yes, but when you have the single-game rushing record to your credit, along with a 224-yard, three touchdown performance as well as a 100+ yard-per-game rushing average to begin your thirty game career I would say the brief resume speaks for itself. If he could add some more to the passing game, Peterson can become a legend.
RB Matt Forte
Entering last season, I did not have any confidence in the skill position players on the Chicago Bears. This is why the season that Forte cobbled together was really amazing to me. A team that had Kyle Orton as its quarterback and a tight end as the team’s best receiver left little hope for success, but over 1,700 yards from scrimmage, 12 total touchdowns, and 63 receptions later we have a fantasy star in the making.
RB Steve Slaton
A third-round pick of the Texans, Slaton was deemed to be too small to handle full-time running back duties by a lot of the draftniks. While he was not a 300-carry guy, 1,659 yards from scrimmage, ten touchdowns, and 50 catches were certainly better than most people’s expectations. With a passing game that has produced over 4,000 yards last season, Slaton should not feel very much pressure to shoulder the load anytime soon, and that is what can lead to a long, productive career in the NFL.
RB Chris Johnson
A Scouting Combine workout wonder, I really thought we might have been looking at another Chris Henry (the disappearing Tennessee running back, not the oft-troubled Cincinnati receiver). Instead, Johnson worked extremely well with LenDale White in the backfield to catapult himself to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season. Apparently, the goal is to get Johnson even more touches, because he presents match-up problems for opposing defenses. If that is really going to be the case, we can add Chris Johnson to the list of great young superstars of fantasy football.
WR Calvin Johnson
The lone bright spot on a winless team, “Megatron” somehow managed see a huge spike in his numbers from Year One (48/756/4) to Year Two (78/1331/12). Even with an unsettled quarterback situation this upcoming season (it can’t be worse than Dan Orlovsky last year), I still expect this highly regarded prospect to continue his maturation into the top wide receiver in the game.
WR Roddy White
After White’s 2007 breakout (83/1202/6) with quarterbacks named Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich, the competent rookie Matt Ryan stepped in and gave White slightly better numbers in 2008 (88/1382/7). This bodes extremely well for his career as White is showing that it does not matter who the quarterback is, he will get open and make big plays for the Falcons for the next decade.
WR Dwayne Bowe
Here is another receiver who has played with seriously below-average quarterbacks for two seasons, yet Dwayne Bowe has tallied 156 catches, 2,017 yards, and 12 touchdowns as the second option behind Tony Gonzalez in the passing game. Now that Matt Cassel and the New England philosophy of conducting business have been brought into Kansas City, Bowe can be headed for a major surge.
QB Tony Romo
Does he get a lot of attention for carousing with Jessica Simpson? Yes. Does he tend to flounder in December and January? Yes. Has he thrown for over 10,000 yards and 81 touchdowns in 39 starts? Yes to that one, too. Make no mistake about it, Romo continues to put up excellent fantasy numbers and while it seems like those totals might take a hit with the exit of Terrell Owens, the offense is supposed to now be more “Romo-friendly” according to Jerry Jones, so the organization is doing everything possible to make sure he succeeds.
QB Jay Cutler
If Dallas is doing everything possible to make Romo comfortable, the exact opposite is happening to Cutler, despite an amazing 2008 season that resulted in his first Pro Bowl appearance. Even with the unsettling spat between quarterback and head coach continuing this offseason, please note that when Cutler gets help from his defense (allows less than 22 point per game), the Broncos are 12-1. It just shows that an average defense and any living, breathing running back provides Cutler the opportunity to be a franchise guy for many years…we just do not know if it will be in Denver or elsewhere.
QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers kept his detractors (and Brett Favre lovers throughout the nation) quiet at least for one season. Rodgers performed as well as could be asked, totaling over 4,000 yards and a 28/13 TD/INT ratio. Despite the Packers finishing the year at 6-10, this was not Rodgers’ fault, but rather an all-of-a-sudden unreliable defense. If that defense can revert back to the form of 2007, it just means more scoring opportunities, and Rodgers can be that beneficiary.
QB Philip Rivers
Rivers tallied his best season of his brief career as a starter with over 4,000 yards and 34 touchdowns, en route to the top passer rating (101.5) in the NFL in 2008. The Chargers continue to find talent to surround Rivers and even with Tomlinson on his way down, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and Chris Chambers give Rivers a plethora of choices in his arsenal. Rivers should be good for quite some time.
QB Matt Cassel
I know, I know…let’s not get excited about one pretty good season against the worst assortment of opponents in recent memory. But while he looked bad at times for the Patriots, Cassel also carried the team on his back on a Thursday night loss against the Jets (who were playing out of their minds at the time) with a 400-yard, three-touchdown game. Cassel then followed that up with a 415-yard, three-touchdown game against the Dolphins in a revenge spot. Now with a supporting cast in Kansas City of Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Larry Johnson, Cassel should not experience that much of a drop around him skill-wise, but if he endures a season behind a weak offensive line and produces, you have a franchise quarterback on your hands, Chiefs fans!
I hope this non-definitive list served as a reminder to everyone in fantasy land that not all has been lost; it is fine that our traditional mainstays move on with their lives. This is a tough game that became even tougher when we now see safeties the size of a 1980’s linebacker, or a linebacker the size of a 1970’s defensive tackle. With bigger, faster, stronger athletes and millions of dollars at stake, it amazes me that some of these guys have lasted as long as they did.
So cheer up everyone! So what if some of our Old Guard fantasy football Hall-of-Famers are having their careers derailed by attrition, injury, or attitude problems? We can always count on another group that will vault themselves into the discussion of the new elite; the New Era of fantasy superstars.