First Down

Beware the Buzzsaw…And How It Runs in Tandem with Today’s NFL

For the longest time, I have always done my best to watch NFL games with two different sides of my brain. One side watches the games for what they are: the competition, contempt for my rivals…you know, like a fan. The other side pays attention to the Chiefs-Raiders game late in the year because I have Dwayne Bowe on my fantasy team, and I want to make sure he is giving me 12-15 points for the week. I watch the Panthers-Giants game not for the desire to watch my team (the Giants) win a crucial game that decides home field advantage for the playoffs. No, I am making sure that DeAngelo Williams doesn’t score four touchdowns and sink my fantasy football squad that is the best in the league.

But this year truly made me realize that something even bigger is going on. It is a case where I have realized my worlds are colliding. Each side of my brain unites. Fantasy and reality have become one…

…and it lies in the form of evil known as The Buzzsaw.

Bear with me for a moment while I explain what I mean. Ever since the St. Louis Rams went from a 4-12 record in 1998 (to add to a decade of futility) to Super Bowl Champions in 1999, every team in the NFL felt like they had a shot to win it all. The 2001 New England Patriots did this too, going from 5-11 in 2000 to hoisting the Lombardi trophy a year later.

This was taken a step further in 2005 when the Pittsburgh Steelers eked their way into the playoffs as a sixth-seed then went on the road to Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver en route to a 21-10 defeat of the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL. All you had to do was find a way into the playoffs no matter how mediocre you might have been, get hot, and win a title.

While the 2006 Colts were hardly mediocre, their run defense was one of the worst the NFL has seen in a really long time (173.0 yards/game!). Yet somehow when the playoffs began, the Colts looked invincible against the run (82.8 yards/game) and took the championship. The 2007 Giants got hot at the right time defensively on the way to ending a potential perfect season by the seemingly unstoppable Patriots. In this most recent campaign, the Arizona Cardinals flipped on the switch after looking disinterested in finishing out the regular season, only to come within 35 seconds of becoming the victors of the Super Bowl that is still fresh in everyone’s mind.

So after the little history lesson from the last ten years, here is where the parallel to fantasy football comes in. Our East Coast league, Blood, Sweat, and Beers Fantasy Football, just completed Season XI. I consistently had the best team going the entire year, averaging 115 points/game in a league with an average score of 100, with a lineup that consistently looked like this:

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Brian Westbrook, Matt Forte, Thomas Jones (Flex)
REC: Roddy White, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe

Looks pretty good, right? I thought so, too. As it turns out, I get to the league title game only to be tripped up by the team who started the year 2-7, won the last five to capture the last playoff spot, and then steamroll the top seed and then my squad in the championship game.

It just so happens we have seen situations like this happen in our league since 2005…the same year that Pittsburgh had their unprecedented run through the playoffs. In this time frame, winning streaks of seven or eight games (including playoffs) to close the year have won the league title.

We will keep the team names anonymous as some are, well…not PG-13.

2005: eight wins to close the year 15-1, League Champion
2006: seven wins to close the year 11-5, League Champion
2007: seven wins to close the year 13-3, League Champion
2008: seven wins to close the year 9-7, League Champion

Now, I am not saying that every year some slouch of a team won the whole thing, evidenced by 2005 and 2007, but it is funny how the teams who begun hot streaks in November ended up as League Champion. Our league has had the same core group of players for the majority of its existence and in this time, we have all begun to understand each other’s tendencies when it comes to Draft Day and Free Agency. Also, all of our newer players are more and more prepared every season because the league is so cutthroat; we have had a fringe team here and there that just can not hack it and quits before the following season.

It is really astonishing how the parity of the NFL’s Salary Cap Era has equivalently infected our local fantasy league in the same way. So what do we do? What can we learn as a community? How do we cope with being on the business end of The Buzzsaw’s wrath? It is very easy, actually…RUN! Don’t walk…run into your bunker and select your starting lineup to the best of your ability. After that, it is out of your hands and the game has to play out on the field. Some years, the stars align for you just right; it worked for the Giants after the 2007 regular season and almost lined up for the Cardinals a couple of weeks ago. Other years, you just get whacked by someone a little more fortunate.

Go back and get ‘em next year, Tony…this is what I say to myself.

 

Second Down

So aside from this depressing tale of a fantastic season wasted by the destiny of others here are some other things I learned from the 2008 season that will hopefully lead to a successful 2009.

Cheer up, Detroit! WR Calvin Johnson is a beast no matter who is throwing him the ball. He alone is worth the price of admission. And besides, the defense can not be worse.

Steven Jackson and Frank Gore are the most important running backs to a team’s offense. Without those guys in the lineup, those teams have nothing in the tank. The Eagles and Chargers, on the other hand, have shown that their offensive lines can make their backups very successful. I find it funny that people like to talk about “system” quarterbacks, when in reality we should be looking at “system” running backs.

Speaking of the Chargers…Vincent Jackson! He finally woke up!

When the season ended I saw that the Chiefs had two 1,000-yard receivers (TE Tony Gonzalez and Bowe), despite having quarterbacks named Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen. Yes, really.

If the Seahawks combined each of their one-dimensional running backs into one “super-back”, he would have 352/1444/10. The Seahawks could then use the two remaining roster spots to find a competent wide receiver.

The sun rises in the east and sets in the west, Tax Day is April 15th every year, the Raiders are still, well…the Raiders.

WR Lee Evans will continue to be the most maddening and frustrating receiving talent in the league. He is so good, yet the Bills still can not settle on someone to throw him the ball, and therefore will have a difficult time providing any consistent output.

Devin Hester’s desire to become (and increasing success as) an offensive player has greatly diminished his kick and punt-returning abilities; I guess he will be dropping down in my kick-returner article later this year.

The Redskins offense needs to be something other than running RB Clinton Portis into the ground all year. They were one of three teams that did not score 30 points in any one game; Detroit and Cincinnati are the other two.

The Denver Broncos gained 6,333 yards and scored 370 points in 2008; the Chicago Bears gained 4,734 yards and scored 375 points. How does this happen?

Conversely, the Tennessee Titans gave up 4,698 yards and 234 points in 2008; the Dallas Cowboys gave up 4,709 yards, but allowed 365 points. Again, how does this happen?

Green Bay was 1-7 in games decided by 7 points or less, while the Colts went 8-1 in games decided by the same margin.

Did anyone think that RB Pierre Thomas and WR Lance Moore would lead the Saints in rushing and receiving in 2008? Not me…

WR Devery Henderson, with 104 career receptions, averages 21.6 yards per catch.

The Giants had two running backs (Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward) each run for over 1,000 yards. That has not happened in 23 years.

I might have told you that you were crazy if you said to me that the top five guys to find the end zone this year were DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, Jacobs, and LenDale White (each guy had over fifteen).

If only QB Matt Schaub could stay healthy; ever since he went to Houston, his 16-game average is 3,843 passing yards. I think fantasy players everywhere would love to have a quarterback that can give you those numbers each year.

To the fine folks of Green Bay…Aaron Rodgers will be just fine, and put up the numbers to prove it in a no-win situation. Yell and scream about your defense letting you down instead.

Alas, poor Shaun Alexander…we knew ye well.

Third Down

Let’s revisit my third-year receiver breakouts article and see if I was able to guide you all in the right direction in 2008:

Quote: “…excuses will run dry quickly if [Vernon] Davis can not get close to 1,000 yards and eight-to-ten scores”

Verdict: The entire coaching staff received a makeover at mid-season; Davis failed miserably, and continues to be maligned in San Francisco.

Quote: “…there is no reason [WR Greg Jennings] can not make the leap into 80-catch, 1,100-yard territory in 2008.”

Verdict: We have ourselves an elite wide receiver. It did not matter whether Brett Favre or Rodgers was throwing Jennings the ball. Continue the excitement.

Quote: With Hines Ward battling injuries over the last two seasons, [Santonio] Holmes could get even more looks, which means that a 1,000-yard, ten-touchdown season could be within reach for 2008.”

Verdict: Well, still made big plays (particularly the biggest one of the postseason), but his regular season numbers did not improve. But there is no reason to give up hope for a solid WR2 season.

Quote: “If [Devin Hester] simply meets expectations, he could match [Bernard] Berrian’s 2006 numbers (51/775/6).”

Verdict: He came pretty close, albeit less TDs (51/665/3). Hester certainly got the looks.

Quote: “If [Demetrius] Williams can prove his worth, he could get plenty of looks in three-wide sets operating in the slot. If not, he could be shown the door.”

Verdict: Baltimore should be all set to give him his walking papers (13/180/1). Thanks for playing.

Quote: “So [Lance] Moore will be battling the likes of Terrance Copper, David Patten, and rookie Adrian Arrington for the opportunity to get a piece of the 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown pie that Drew Brees is capable of serving up again this year.”

Verdict: As I mentioned in Second Down earlier, who saw it coming that Moore would lead the team in all receiving categories? I obviously did not. In hindsight, I can not believe I was seriously concerned about a seventh-round pick (Arrington).

 

Fourth Down

Let’s revisit the “Trading Places” article from 2008. The premise here was to see what happens when some big names are traded from one team to another. The two players we examined this past year were QB Brett Favre and TE Jeremy Shockey.

Brett Favre was named to the Pro Bowl (despite throwing 22 INTs) and brought playoff credentials to the Jets quarterback position. He played well in some games, such as the Thursday Night contest versus the Patriots and the upset of the Tennessee Titans on the road. However, he once again provided some real head-scratchers against the AFC West teams this year, including a particularly embarrassing home loss to the Denver Broncos. Did he make the Jets players in the AFC and discussion-worthy for a period? Absolutely. Did he get the Jets to the heights they were expecting? No; they crumbled in December.

Also, while it was not the fault of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers poor season, people still like to tie wins and losses to the quarterback. The Packers went 13-3 with Favre in 2007, while they went 6-10 in 2008 without him.

Jeremy Shockey was shipped off to New Orleans after the emergence of Kevin Boss in New York. Shockey continued to battle injuries and was left out in the cold when it came to the end zone looks (50/483/0), despite the fact that Drew Brees threw to so many different receivers in a 5,000+ yard, 34 TD passing season.

The Giants managed to get along just fine without Shockey, going 13-3 and the top seed in the NFC. Do you really think the Giants would be allowed to have two guys run for 1,000-yards each with Shockey around demanding the ball? I don’t think so.

Favre proved he could be a fantasy starter despite a drastic change in scenery and offense. Shockey on the other hand has been rendered irrelevant in the fantasy landscape.