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2009 First Thoughts - AFC/NFC East

5/13/2009
By Michael Nazarek


May is here and it’s time once again to take a look at the fantasy potential regarding all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming 2009 season. Free agency is over for the most part, and the NFL Draft recently took place, so teams will be making mostly small moves to tweak their rosters before training camps begin later this summer. Believe it or not, we are less than three months away from the start of those camps. I'm starting to get excited just thinking about it! As in years past, this series of articles will begin in the East and I'll work my way West. Let's get right to it, there's a lot to discuss...

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills: The Bills were hot to begin 2008, but turned cold and missed the playoffs once again. QB Trent Edwards played well early, but after suffering an injury, he failed to make big plays for his team. Potential is still there, and he gets a big new target in free-agent signee WR Terrell Owens in 2009. The questions here are will they get along and can T.O. raise the level of play of Edwards to get the team into the playoffs while making Edwards a serviceable fantasy starter? I have my doubts. Regardless, QB J.P. Losman is gone, so this is clearly Edwards’ team. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed to back up Edwards. RB Marshawn Lynch had more troubles with the law, and has been suspended for the first three games of the 2009 season. Lynch has been a solid fantasy producer most games when he plays, but this suspension makes him a better #2 fantasy RB than a #1. Backup RB Fred Jackson was an unhappy restricted free agent, but just agreed to sign a new four-year deal. That locks him up as the primary backup to Lynch. The team signed veteran RB Dominic Rhodes when things didn’t look good with Jackson, but now Rhodes appears to be just a very good #3 RB. WR Lee Evans was the clear #1 WR last year, but with T.O. on the team, that is no longer the case. We all know T.O. wants the ball, and usually what T.O. wants, T.O. gets. Still, neither player will dominate in this offense, meaning both are top 30 fantasy WRs, but neither is top 10. WR Josh Reed, WR Roscoe Parrish, and WR James Hardy round out the receiving corps. Parrish was on the trading block before the draft, while Hardy continues to recover from a serious knee injury. That likely means Reed will fill the #3 WR job, at least early in the season. TE Robert Royal is gone, as the team drafted rookie TE Shawn Nelson in the 4th round as his potential replacement. TE Derek Schouman and second-year TE Derek Fine return, but let’s just say I don’t expect much from this position fantasy-wise for the Bills in 2009. PK Rian Lindell remains a decent kicker, but too often last year he failed to convert when called upon later in the season for serious fantasy consideration. Quick Draft Summary: Outside of the rookie TE mentioned above, the Bills drafted five defensive players and a few offensive linemen.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins turned a one-win team into a playoff team in 2008. However, the Ravens showed everyone that Miami isn’t as close to the Super Bowl as one might think. Veteran QB Chad Pennington did a good job of moving from the Jets to the Dolphins and jump-starting the offense. Still, Pennington played inconsistently down the stretch, which means it’s only a matter of time before second-year QB Chad Henne takes over the team. That’s why Pennington is a risky fantasy backup to own at best in 2009. QB John Beck is gone, leaving a lack of experienced depth at the position. At tailback, RB Ronnie Brown used the wildcat offense to become a fantasy force in 2008 once again, coming off a torn ACL. He returns as the starter, but veteran RB Ricky Williams also returns and the team drafted WR Pat White to take control of the wildcat offense as QB. That likely means less chances for Brown as the playmaker. At wideout, the team expects big things from inconsistent year WR Tedd Ginn in 2009, while WR Greg Camarillo works to recover from a torn ACL. If Camarillo struggles, WR Devon Bess is a likely starter. Veteran WR Ernest Wilford flopped as a veteran free-agent signee last season, and may not make the team in 2009. Still, the team drafted two wideouts in the middle rounds of April’s draft, showing all they are determined to draft and develop their own receivers. The big surprise of 2008 offensively for the Dolphins was the productivity of both TE Anthony Fasano and TE David Martin. When one didn’t score, it seemed the other did. And in a few games, both got into the end zone. However, that doesn’t make either a viable fantasy starter. PK Rob Carpenter did a fair job of replacing PK Jay Feely last year, but he doesn’t see enough scoring chances for real fantasy consideration. The Dolphins just re-signed DE Jason Taylor today, and plan to stand him up at linebacker to get him snaps. Quick Draft Summary: With their other picks in April, the Dolphins drafted a tight end, an offensive lineman and four defensive players.

New England Patriots: Without QB Tom Brady, after he tore his ACL in week #1, the Patriots very nearly made the playoffs in 2008, but came up short. QB Matt Cassel emerged as a viable NFL starter, was franchised after the season, and promptly traded to the Chiefs. Brady is said to be nearly 100%, and is expected to start come week #1. He remains an elite QB, but until he plays in a real game, I don’t put him atop my QB rankings. Second-year QB Kevin O'Connell returns, leaving the QB position lacking in depth. In the running game, RB Laurence Maroney returns, but remains an inconsistent fantasy producer due to varies nagging injuries. He’s likely facing his last chance to make a real impact for the team. RB Sammy Morris and RB Kevin Faulk also return to muddy the situation. In addition, the team signed free-agent RB Fred Taylor. Who will see most of the workload? That question isn’t likely to be answered until after week #1. In the passing game, WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker remain the studly starters, both making top 15 fantasy WR choices. WR Jabar Gaffney and WR Kelley Washington are gone, as the team signed free-agent WR Joey Galloway, acquired WR Greg Lewis in trade from the Eagles, and drafted two receivers. Galloway could become the Devery Henderson of this offense. TE Ben Watson returns as the starter at tight end, while TE David Thomas and newly acquired TE Alex Smith provide depth. TE Chris Baker was signed as the blocking tight end. PK Stephen Gostkowski returns as a top 3 fantasy kicker once again in 2009 due to the numerous scoring chances he’ll see. Quick Draft Summary: The Patriots chose six defensive players in the draft, along with three offensive lineman.

New York Jets: The Brett Favre era in New York came and went in the matter of one season. QB Brett Favre led the Jets to an 8-3 record in 2008, but a partially torn biceps ruined the rest of his season, along with the Jets’ playoff chances. Favre retired and is flirting with another return to the NFL with the Vikings. Good luck with that. As for the Jets, QB Kellen Clemens will battle rookie QB Mark Sanchez for the starting job this summer. Expect Sanchez to win it. Rookie QB Erik Ainge returns to provide depth at QB. At tailback, the situation is complicated with both veteran RB Thomas Jones and RB Leon Washington balking at attending OTAs until they get new deals. Jones won’t see any more new money, but Washington has earned a new deal, so the Jets would be wise to sign him before it gets really ugly. New York drafted RB Shonn Greene in the third round, and intend to use him extensively along with Jones, if he doesn’t hold out. If Jones holds out, he could be traded or released if Greene impresses in training camp. Any way you slice it, it appears a RBBC may be here to stay with the Jets. In the passing game, WR Laveranues Coles was released and signed with the Bengals, but WR Jerricho Cotchery returns as the lead WR. The Jets also have WR Brad Smith, WR Chansi Stuckey and WR David Clowney, but I question whether any of them can be a solid #2 NFL WR. TE Chris Baker was released, while veteran TE Bubba Franks was recently re-signed. Franks will back up starting second-year TE Dustin Keller. Keller is a solid threat, one that could continue to surprise if he develops chemistry quickly with Sanchez. PK Mike Nugent was released, while PK Jay Feely was re-signed. Feely was solid last year, and remains a decent backup fantasy kicker for owners in larger leagues. Quick Draft Summary: The Jets traded most of their picks to draft Sanchez and Greene, leaving them only with 6th-round OG Matt Slauson.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: After losing their first playoff game in 2007, the Cowboys failed to even make the playoffs in 2008. But that really wasn’t the fault of QB Tony Romo, despite the fact he missed several games due to injury. The Cowboys are standing firmly behind Romo, to the point they released WR Terrell Owens. How good can Romo be without Owens? I say he remains a solid fantasy starter, top 10 QB for sure. Backup QB Brad Johnson played himself right off the team, as they acquired QB Jon Kitna via trade from the Lions to back up Romo. RB Marion Barber blew up in 2008, until a dislocated toe killed his fantasy value late last year. He returns and remains the driving force at tailback, but there’s talk that second-year RB Felix Jones could start to keep Barber fresh. And then there’s second-year RB Tashard Choice, whom filled in more than adequately when both Barber and Jones couldn’t play last year. The Cowboys plan to keep Choice involved in the game plan, but I see him more as a luxury than anything else provided all three are healthy. In the passing game, without Owens, WR Roy Williams becomes the new #1 WR. There’s no doubting his talent, but Romo didn’t exactly develop much chemistry with Williams after the team acquired him last season. That must change if the team is to make the playoffs. The Cowboys are high on WR Miles Austin, whom flashed last year before an injury struck. Austin and WR Patrick Crayton will see most of the playing time opposite Williams, while WR Sam Hurd and WR Isaiah Stanback return to provide depth for this corps. TE Jason Witten proved 2007 was no fluke by reaching the top of the fantasy TE world before injuries limited his effectiveness late in 2008. He’s my top TE in 2009 once again. Second-year TE Marcellus Bennett doesn’t see many targets, but makes his catches count. He could score a half dozen times in 2009. PK Nick Folk failed to see enough scoring chances and became a mediocre fantasy producer in 2008. That could change in 2009, but hip surgery will delay his progress a bit this summer once training camp begins. In other words, I’d draft him as my fantasy backup before I take him as a fantasy starter. Quick Draft Summary: The Cowboys didn’t have a first or second round pick, but still added 12 players to their roster from the draft, including 4th-round QB Stephen McGee and 6th-rounder TE John Phillips. These two players are expected to fight for 3rd team duties. Most of the other picks were defensive players.

New York Giants: My favorite team blew through the 2008 regular season, only to lose to the Eagles at home in the playoffs without suspended WR Plaxico Burress on the field. Without Burress, QB Eli Manning struggled to make the big plays needed to take the pressure off the running game. The Giants flirted with trades to acquire WR Anquan Boldin and WR Braylon Edwards this off-season, only to draft WR Hakeem Nicks as a long-term replacement for Burress, whom was released. Unfortunately, the lack of a big-play receiver makes Manning only a decent fantasy backup at this time. Perhaps the Giants will make a move to acquire a veteran WR should the youngsters struggle in camp later this summer. QB David Carr was re-signed to back up Manning. In the running game, RB Brandon Jacobs was signed for a long-term deal, while the Giants let RB Derrick Ward leave for Tampa Bay via free agency. Jacobs is a top 10 fantasy RB talent with a history of missing multiple games each season due to injury. RB Ahmad Bradshaw returns to fill the primary backup role, while RB Danny Ware and rookie RB Andre Brown provide depth at the position. In the passing game, both Burress and veteran WR Amani Toomer are gone. That leaves WR David Tyree as the most experienced receiver of the group, but Tyree can’t stay healthy enough to get on the field. That’s why WR Steve Smith and WR Domenik Hixon are currently projected to start, but Nicks will push Hixon for his job later this summer. WR Sinorice Moss and second-year WR Mario Manningham provide depth for the corps, along with rookie WR Ramses Barden. Barden is a big player and could be used in the red zone much like Burress used to be, but the kid must learn quickly. TE Kevin Boss returns as the starting tight end. He can be effective when targeted, but too often in 2008 he was ignored in the passing game. Rookie TE Travis Beckum is a pass-catching H-back type player that should also provide another option in the passing game. PK Lawrence Tynes missed the majority of 2008 due to injury, but returns as the kicker when the Giants let PK John Carney leave during free agency. Fantasy owners might want to give Tynes a look late in their draft as a fantasy backup. Quick Draft Summary: Other than the players already mentioned, the Giants drafted three defensive players, an offensive lineman, and 5th-round QB Rhett Bomar, a third-team candidate player.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles beat my Giants in the playoffs and nearly made the Super Bowl, losing late to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship. QB Donovan McNabb returns as the starter, but one without a new deal he covets. He was benched mid-season for half a game, a mistake, but led the team far into the playoffs. He remains a solid top 10 fantasy QB. QB Kevin Kolb looked terrible trying to replace McNabb against the Ravens last season, and remains a backup. In the running game, RB Brian Westbrook gutted out a season filled with various injuries. They took their toll on him, as he was not very effective in the playoffs. When healthy, Westbrook is a top 10 fantasy RB. Backup RB Correll Buckhalter left for Denver via free agency, while RB Lorenzo Booker is far from a solid backup plan. That’s why the Eagles drafted RB LeSean McCoy in the second round of April’s draft. He’ll back up Westbrook, and is his handcuff for fantasy owners. Veteran FB Leonard Weaver was signed, but will only have minimal fantasy impact in the running game. In the passing game, WR Kevin Curtis and second-year WR DeSean Jackson are the solid starters with WR Jason Avant filling the #3 WR job, while WR Hank Baskett re-signed for depth. WR Reggie Brown remains part of the corps, but has lost his starting job. He was a healthy inactive for much of the playoffs in 2008, but that could change since the team traded WR Greg Lewis to the Patriots. Rookie WR Jeremy Maclin was drafted to boost the corps. He has potential to make a fantasy impact down the road. The Eagles let TE L.J. Smith leave via free agency after another injury-filled season. TE Brent Celek returns as the unquestioned starter, one with fantasy sleeper written all over him. Rookie TE Cornelius Ingram will likely back up Celek. PK David Akers is still one of my favorite kickers, and could easily be a top 10 fantasy kicker in 2009. Quick Draft Summary: Other than the players mentioned above, the Eagles drafted two offensive linemen, two defensive players, and another wideout, 6th-rounder WR Brandon Gibson. Gibson has good size, but lacks speed and should only be a reserve.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins failed to make the playoffs in 2008, so the team eyed QB Jay Cutler this off-season, but lost out on a trade to get him to the Bears. That leaves QB Jason Campbell as an inconsistent starter. While not a poor talent, Campbell has yet to show he can lead the Redskins far into the playoffs, much less be a solid fantasy starter. QB Todd Collins returns as the primary backup in 2009. In the running game, RB Clinton Portis is another year older, but remains the starter. He’ll be 28 years old come September, and has a lot of mileage on his body, but is a solid fantasy starter when healthy. RB Ladell Betts returns as a quality backup to Portis. Once again, FB Rock Cartwright returns as the lead fullback and kick-returner for the team. In the passing game, WR Santana Moss was rejuvenated early last season, making big plays in nearly every game, but slowed in the latter part of the season due to a concussion. He returns as the #1 WR, while the Redskins are hoping second-year WR Devin Thomas can step up and start opposite Moss. If not, look for WR Antwaan Randle El to continue in that role. WR Malcolm Kelly underwent microfracture surgery on his left knee this off-season, putting his 2009 in doubt. The team drafted WR Marko Mitchell in the 7th round, and he has great size and speed, but is a longshot to make much of a fantasy impact in 2009. WR Roydell Williams was recently signed to try and revive his dead career in Washington. TE Chris Cooley returns as one of the elite fantasy producers at his position in the league. Although, Cooley’s big game potential seems to have waned a bit. Second-year TE Fred Davis needs to mature in a big way if he’s to make any kind of impact this year. PK Shaun Suisham is the kicker, but is too inconsistent for serious fantasy consideration. There’s a chance if he struggles in camp that he could be replaced. Quick Draft Summary: Other than Mitchell, the Redskins drafted four defensive players and a fullback.

That's a wrap for the two Eastern divisions. Be sure to join me over the coming weeks as I offer my First Thoughts on the other six divisions. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

 

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