Free 2008 Guide Sneak Peek - Hangin in the Red Zone

Hangin' in the Red Zone

by: The Almighty God (as told to his humble servant John Holler)

Editor's Note: In our draft guide, there is an exhaustive breakdown of the red zone stats of all the major fantasy players and what you can glean from them. In this free preview, we’re highlighting the quarterbacks and what the Red Zone numbers can tell us. If you'd like to read the complete article, please click HERE to order our 2008 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

QUARTERBACKS

When it comes to quarterbacks, the numbers you look at aren’t yardage or even touchdowns. The key numbers are completion percentage and interceptions. The Red Zone is precious territory in the NFL – some people refer to it as “The Green Zone” because that is where they make their money. If a quarterback throws too many incompletions or interceptions, a coach will be much more likely to turn away from that player at crunch time, rendering him largely ineffective and a coach less likely to take risks in the end zone.

BY THE NUMBERS

2007 SEASON
PLAYER            Att-Com Yrd TD INT
Tom Brady          117-72 480 34 0
Drew Brees          90-63 330 23 0
Peyton Manning      88-49 333 19 3
Carson Palmer       86-51 316 17 2
Eli Manning         84-45 327 18 4
Matt Hasselbeck     80-43 319 20 3
Tony Romo           76-42 309 20 3
Ben Roethlisberger 76-45 335 23 2
Donovan McNabb      75-35 229 12 1
Philip Rivers       73-35 247 13 0
Brett Favre         70-42 279 18 1
Derek Anderson      69-33 285 19 3
Kurt Warner         64-38 270 22 1
Jon Kitna           61-33 243 13 3
David Garrard       59-35 217 12 2
Jay Cutler          54-32 216 16 0
Jason Campbell      49-26 194 11 2
Vince Young         41-21 166 5 2
Kyle Boller         40-23 148 8 4
Marc Bulger         37-24 170 9 2
Kellen Clemens      37-14 114 5 2
Cleo Lemon          32-12 69   3 2
Brian Griese        32-16 160 6 2
Jeff Garcia         32-17 69   5 0
Damon Huard         31-17 121 6 1
Chad Pennington     31-18 110 7 1
Matt Schaub         30-16 124 5 1
Sage Rosenfels      29-21 144 11 2
Tarvaris Jackson    29-14 100 5 2
Josh McCown         28-14 85   6 0
Joey Harrington     28-14 77   4 0
Trent Edwards       28-19 96   5 1
Brodie Croyle       21-8 84    5 0
Quinn Gray          21-14 126 8 0
Alex Smith          21-8 49    1 0
Rex Grossman        21-13 64   3 0

THREE-YEAR TOTALS
PLAYER Att-Com Yrd TD INT

Tom Brady           260-154 1,091 71 3
Carson Palmer       258-155 1,057 54 7
Peyton Manning      242-138   990 58 5
Brett Favre         224-110   750 40 7
Eli Manning         218-109   777 48 8
Drew Brees          198-120   784 49 5
Ben Roethlisberger 190-112   828 49 7
Matt Hasselbeck     171-91    699 46 6
Steve McNair        156-84    594 25 5
Marc Bulger         156-96    671 36 3
Donovan McNabb      154-81    532 31 4
Kurt Warner         134-80    544 37 3
Tony Romo           125-72    496 32 5
Philip Rivers       124-68    481 25 0
Jon Kitna           121-68    489 26 5
David Carr          106-56    340 18 2
David Garrard       105-56    377 22 3
Michael Vick        103-56    435 27 4
Jake Delhomme       102-63    492 31 3
Joey Harrington     102-49    334 21 6
Jake Plummer        100-55    374 23 2
Kerry Collins        98-45    308 10 1
Gus Frerotte         95-45    305 17 4
Chad Pennington      94-51    304 17 3
Brad Johnson         92-48    368 16 4
Drew Bledsoe         86-46    363 22 2
Alex Smith           86-44    297 12 1
Vince Young          85-42    353 14 3
Rex Grossman         85-47    312 16 2
Trent Green          84-48    299 15 1
J.P. Losman          78-37    234 13 2
Derek Anderson       76-38    320 23 3
Jeff Garcia          73-41    214 14 0
Jason Campbell       73-39    267 17 3
Jay Cutler           73-46    321 21 0
Damon Huard          67-34    255 14 1
Kyle Boller          66-37    259 16 6

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US?

* Tom Brady is a fantasy God. Even before his monster 2007 season, he had as many Red Zone TD passes as Peyton Manning and his 34 RZTDs last year was 11 more than any other player in the league. Of his 117 RZ passes last year, none were intercepted and he has an amazing 71:3 touchdown to interception ratio.
* Carson Palmer is every bit the Red Zone passer as Manning and Brady. Over the last three years, nobody has completed more passes in the Red Zone, which is what you need to consistently get touchdowns.
* After a dismal start, Drew Brees was dominant – completing and amazing 70 percent of his Red Zone and finishing second only to Brady in RZTDs (23) in 2007.
* Peyton Manning really missed Marvin Harrison in the Red Zone last year. In 2005-06, he threw 154 RZ passes and had just two of them picked off. Last year, he threw 88 passes and had three intercepted.
* Ben Roethlisberger has become a Red Zone stud. His 23 RZTDs in 2007 was behind only Brady and the only QBs with more RZTDs over the last three years are Brady, Peyton Manning and Palmer.
* Eli Manning throws way too many Red Zone picks. His four interceptions last year were the most of any QB in the league, as is his total of eight over the last three years.
* Donovan McNabb is not a big Red Zone threat. His 12 RZTDs were the lowest total of any QB he threw more than 50 passes (he had 75), he completed less than 50 percent of them and over the last three years, he has just 31 RZTDs – one less than Tony Romo has in a season-and-a-half.
* Romo has been an efficient Red Zone passer, but his five picks in 125 passes over the last three years is a little too high.
* Kurt Warner remains a Red Zone stud, perhaps a tribute to his passing in tight spaces from his Arena League days. In 2007, he threw just 64 Red Zone passes and completed 38. Of those, almost two-thirds of them (22) went for touchdowns.
* Derek Anderson needs more work on his Red Zone passes. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes last year and had three picks – tied for third-worst in the league.
* David Garrard makes most of his mistakes in the Red Zone. Garrard has just three picks in 325 passes last year – one in 266 passes outside the Red Zone and two in 59 passes in the Red Zone.
* Vince Young brings almost nothing as a Red Zone QB. Last year, he attempted just 41 passes, completed only half of them and had just five Red Zone TDs.
* The Ravens are brutal in the Red Zone. Last year, Kyle Boller had eight TDs and four interceptions – tied for most in the league, but he had four picks in just 40 passes. Between him and Steve McNair, they had five interceptions on just 66 Red Zone passes.
* Philip Rivers is as sound a Red Zone QB as you’re going to find. In 124 career Red Zone passes, he has thrown 25 touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception.
* Whether as a starter or a backup, Jeff Garcia hasn’t let his team down. Over the last three years, he has thrown 73 Red Zone passes, completing 41 of them for 14 touchdowns and no interceptions. But having just 32 RZP’s as the starter for the Bucs most of last season has to be viewed as troubling.
* Before getting hurt last year, Jake Delhomme completed eight of 10 Red Zone passes – six of those for touchdowns.
* Cleo Lemon is a big a Red Zone bust as anyone. Last year, he completed just 12 of 32 RZP’s with just three touchdowns and two interceptions.
* The Bears were hinky about letting Rex Grossman throw in the Red Zone, but he completed 13 of 21 passes with three TDs and no interceptions. Over the last three years, he has 16 TDs and just two picks in the Red Zone – a better ratio than Palmer, Eli Manning, Roethlisberger or Brett Favre.