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TE Rankings Analysis by Michael Nazarek/John Holler Note:
Fantasy Points calculated using a standard Performance scoring
system where Pass TD = 3 points, Rush/Rec TD = 6 points, 20 Pass
Yards = 1 point, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1 point, and there are no
negative points for interceptions or fumbles. The rankings are
divided into Tiers, which are groups of players ranked closely
together. Tiering Analysis: In Tier #3, three veterans and two cagey youngsters will try to break into the top 7. TE L.J. Smith is in the best position here, playing in a big contract year with a very good QB in Donovan McNabb. TE Tony Scheffler has the most potential, but a lingering foot injury could really hamper his fantasy production. THE
MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: Found exclusively in the Guide. 3RD TIER (SLEEPERS & SLY VETERANS) 8) Todd Heap, BAL (Hamstring Injury Still a Concern) Heap has been something of an underachiever over the years – a player who is capable of having huge games and giving all appearances that he could be the type of player that could be the centerpiece of the Ravens pass offense. In two of the last four seasons, he has missed 10 games due to injury. Prior to 2007, in the four full seasons he played, he had six touchdowns or more and was on pace for eight TDs when he was injured in 2004. But he completely disappeared last year even when he was healthy. In the six games he played, he had just 23 catches for 239 yards and one touchdown – dismal numbers by any accounting. The Ravens have done little to upgrade their receiver corps, so Heap again should be viewed as their top receiver. But this is an offense in transition. Many believe rookie Joe Flacco is going to be handed the starting job out of the gate or early on in the season and his forte is to launch the deep ball. That likely wouldn’t include Heap. If, however, he can become comfortable throwing safety valve passes, Heap should be a prime target. Whether he can return to the 6-7 touchdown range is a big question mark and one that likely won’t be answered until a month or two into the season. STAT FACT: Heap’s big play ability is shrinking. His average per catch has dropped steadily throughout his career (12.9, 12.3, 12.2, 11.2, 11.4, 10.5, 10.4) and in the last four years none of his season-long receptions have been passes he broke for a touchdown. 9) Owen Daniels, HOU + Daniels has been a fantasy underachiever that has been on a lot of owners’ hot list the last couple of years. Whether it has been drinking the Gary Kubiak press conference Kool-Aid or the belief that he can do with tight ends what Mike Shanahan used to do with running backs, Daniels has been given every chance to succeed. As a rookie in 2006, he caught 34 passes for 352 yards and five touchdowns. Last year, he started all 16 games and his catch and yardage numbers (63-768) exploded. However, he caught just three touchdowns. He and Matt Schaub picked up an immediate rapport, but he played even better with Sage Rosenfels. If he can keep on the same page with both, combined with the third-year plan that see so many receivers hit their full potential, Daniels is another sleeper-type pick that could pay dividends. If he put up those kind of numbers with an offense in transition, it stands to reason that his numbers could climb even higher with more offensive stability and his better grasp of the game. STAT FACT: As a rookie, Daniels had just one game with more than 55 yards receiving. In 2007, he did it seven times. Updated 7/18: Taking a second look at Daniels and his improvement yields a bit more yards and an extra score, moving him near the top of this Tier. Fantasy owners should feels safe about targeting Daniels in the 9-10 round area of their draft as a fantasy starter with solid value. 10) L.J. Smith, PHI # of Catches Yards Rec. TD Rec. Fantasy Points Smith hasn’t been a fantasy stud by any stretch of the imagination, but he has been a productive tight end that has been a suitable fantasy starter. Prior to last season, injuries had never been a question mark and his reception totals had risen steadily each year in the first three (27-34-61). In 2006, his number suffered without Donovan McNabb (50-611-5), but they hit bottom in 2007 (22-236-1). Bothered with injuries most of the season, he was forced to shut down after playing just 10 games. He isn’t going to be a fantasy killer – he has yet to get more than five touchdowns in any of his five seasons. He has established a rapport with McNabb and he has become one of his go-to guys. But, as the Eagles continue to try to diversify their offense, they have gone away from Smith somewhat. But with both he and McNabb looking at the possibility of big changes coming after this year if Philly doesn’t succeed, they will have to hook up like they have in the past. Smith will have the occasional big game. But counting on him as a fantasy starter may be asking too much. STAT FACT: Dating back to 2005, seven of his last eight touchdown catches have come on the road. At his last 20 homes games, he has just one touchdown. 11) Heath Miller, PIT Miller has developed into a very solid fantasy starter in terms of what are expected from the non-elite NFL tight ends. He has never missed a game with injury and had a solid first two seasons (39-459-6 in 2005 and 34-393-5 in 2006). But, for the most part, he was overshadowed by guys like Hines Ward and the other wide receivers. That changed last year. As Ben Roethlisberger was forced to throw more, he found a much stronger rapport with Miller. His 47 catches, 556 yards and seven touchdowns were all career highs. Another player who has blossomed in his third season, those are the types of numbers many expect him to build from this year. With the anticipated emergence of Santonio Holmes, the Steelers outside receivers are likely to get more of the ink, but Miller could turn in a season like the big boys do if used properly. He’s probably one of the best sleeper-type picks among the TEs at this level. STAT FACT: Owners in point-per-reception leagues don’t have a lot of man-love for Miller. In the fifth game of his career, he caught six passes. He hasn’t caught more than five passes in any of his 43 games since. Updated 7/18: Just a word of caution here… If Miller’s scores drop considerably down to 2 or 3, he quickly becomes just another backup fantasy TE, and that’s not what you want when you draft your fantasy starter. 12) Tony Scheffler, DEN (Foot Injury is Still a Concern) # of Catches Yards Rec. TD Rec. Fantasy Points Scheffler has been touted as the white version of Shannon Sharpe with the promise of similar numbers. While that hasn’t happened yet, there is still a sentiment that he will be the future of the position for the Broncos and a valued part of the offense in 2008. He showed his early promise playing through injuries to catch 18 passes for 286 yards (a 16-yard average) and four touchdowns. Worked into the lineup more last year, his numbers bounced to 49-549-5. Entering his third season, another spike in his numbers is expected. He is still recovering from a foot injury, which doesn’t help his draft status, but Scheffler has proved to be a dangerous red zone receiver and a player who can stretch the seam down the middle. As he and Jay Cutler get more familiar with one another, their rapport is expected to grow. The Broncos are one of the few teams that use passes to the tight end as a first read on pass plays and, if Scheffler can stay healthy, he and Cutler could restore the roar to the tight end production in Denver. STAT FACT: Scheffler has averaged a touchdown for every 7.5 receptions of his career.
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