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RB Rankings Analysis by Michael Nazarek/John Holler Note:
Fantasy Points calculated using a standard Performance scoring
system where Pass TD = 3 points, Rush/Rec TD = 6 points, 20 Pass
Yards = 1 point, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1 point, and there are no
negative points for interceptions or fumbles. The rankings are
divided into Tiers, which are groups of players ranked closely
together. Tiering Analysis: Tier #4 consists of four young backs, and a cagey veteran in RB Jamal Lewis. Lewis surprised many last season (including myself), but I question whether he can repeat his success, especially the scoring. RB Willis McGahee and RB Marshawn Lynch are the most consistent backs in this tier. Let’s just hope that Lynch’s legal issues are resolved quickly ands without suspension, or he’ll be downgraded a bit. THE
MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: Found exclusively in the Guide.
10) Willis McGahee, BAL What you talkin’ ‘bout, Willis? McGahee made the move to Baltimore and, by all accounts, he has fit in great as a teammate. The problem has been consistent scoring of touchdowns. In his first year in the league with Buffalo, he scored 13 touchdowns. He has followed that up with TD seasons of six, five and eight – not the kind of numbers you immediately associate with a top-tier running back. That said, he did the most of what he had to work with the Ravens last year. He had 294 carries in 15 games for 1,207 yards. He also shattered his career high with 43 receptions and his eight TDs were the most he’s had since his first season. But, the problem with McGahee is that he is not a game-breaker. His 4.1 rushing average last year was the highest of his career and he didn’t have a run of longer than 46 yards. His receiving numbers say the same – he had 43 catches, but he averaged just 5.6 yards per reception. In 61 career games, he has just one receiving TD. He’s a grinder who isn’t going to be “sexy” as RBs go, but he gets the job done. He might hang around a lot longer than this ranking will indicate, as owners veer toward wide receivers and QB and the late first round and into the second. With a new coach and a new philosophy, he may be asked to do more and be more versatile like good fantasy backs are. But he isn’t going to be a back-breaker like L.T. or Peterson will be. The retirement of Jonathan Ogden only makes him more likely to slide on draft day. STAT FACT: After not scoring a rushing touchdown in his first five games, McGahee had a rushing TD in seven straight games. 11) Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX MJD has finally stepped out of the shadow of Fred Taylor – many believe the Artist Formerly Known as Fragile Fred was sent to the Pro Bowl as the equivalent of a Lifetime Achievement Award rather than a spectacular season that made him a shoo-in to go. Jones-Drew has more than cut into his time and, as the Jaguars look to take the next step to the top in the AFC, the team has to know that their offensive explosion is centered around MJD and not F-2 (Fragile Fred). For two years, they have kept a muzzle on Jones-Drew – as a rookie, he rushed just 166 times, but had 941 yards and 13 TDs, as well as 46-436-2 receiving. In 15 games last year, he had just 167 carries for 768 yards and nine TDs and 40-407-0 receiving. His TD numbers diminished, but his big-play ability did not. In two years, he has averaged more than yards a carry and almost 10 yards per reception. He is a big play waiting to happen and, with the Jags’ defensive capable of shutting down opposing offenses, one big play is all they need to win games. Whether loyalty to Taylor will continue, it is MJD’s time and he is prepared to make the most out of it if given the chance. STAT FACT: In his last 24 games, he has at least one run or reception of 20 or more yards in 16 of those games – three of which he had both a 20+ yard run and reception. In that span, he has scored on TD runs of 74, 57, 52, 48 and 32 yards. 12) Marshawn Lynch, BUF Yards Rush TD Rush Yards Receiving TD Receiving # of Catches Fantasy Pts Lynch was unjustly overshadowed by Adrian Peterson last year, but, if not for him, Lynch would have been viewed as much more favorably. He put together a better season than 90 percent of rookie running backs have over the last decade. In 13 games, he rushed 280 times for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He was asked to shoulder a lot of the offense as the Bills went through a quarterback change, but was a consistent fantasy scorer as a rookie. Lynch wore down somewhat as the season progressed, but he had 18 or more carries in every game he played – the Bills have clearly decided that he is the only running game they’re willing to go with. His numbers were crazily similar for carries – 18 twice, 19 twice, 20 twice, 21 twice, 22 once, 23 twice and 27 and 29 once each. If that is the standard you use for a second-round fantasy running back, Lynch may be your guy. He was used much at all in the passing game – he had more than two receptions just twice – but he has the makings of a decent fantasy starter and strong No. 2 option. STAT FACT: While Lynch only scored seven touchdowns last year, he didn’t leave owners in the lurch all that often – he never went more than two weeks all season without scoring a touchdown and he only did that once. Update 7/18: Lynch copped a plea to hitting a pedestrian during a late-night run from a nightclub. The NFL is considering giving him a one- or two-game suspension. If that’s handed down, he might slide a tad in our rankings. 13) Ryan Grant, GB Yards Rush TD Rush Yards Receiving TD Receiving # of Catches Fantasy Pts Grant was more than likely a waiver pickup by some owner early in the season – if you know somebody who drafted him, try to steal his draft list when you take a break on draft night. He came out of nowhere to get handed the starting job for the Packers until injury forced him into a game in Week 8 against the Rams. In that game, he ran for 104 yards and the rest was history. As much credit as Brett Favre was given for the Packers success, Grant did more than his share. In the final nine games of the season, he had five 100-yard rushing games. He also scored TDs is seven of the eight games he started, including each of the final six games. He was a nobody at the beginning of the season who likely carried a lot of fantasy owners deep into their playoffs. He comes into this year as the clear No. 1 RB and is playing for a big contract. If he has a monster season, he can legitimately hold out next offseason and say “give me a long-term contract.” Everyone does it and, if you prove to be deserving of a new deal, you get rewarded. Grant is going to be highly motivated, because, with Brett Favre going off the books against the cap (while it lasts), Grant could be in for a huge payday. Whether he can hold up for a full 16 games remains the concern, but if he can come close to the numbers he produced last year in half-time duty, he could be massive, especially against a suspect division of which they ruled in ‘07. STAT FACT: Odd-Even Numerologist Alert! In the nine games he played, Grant never had consecutive games in which he ran for 100 yards or have consecutive games in which he didn’t. That’s hard to do. Update: 7/18: Grant has yet to sign a contract with the Packers, but remains optimistic one will get done before training camp begins, but time is running short. If he holds out, his fantasy ranking could begin to deteriorate. 14) Jamal Lewis, CLE Yards Rush TD Rush Yards Receiving TD Receiving # of Catches Fantasy Pts Lewis was all but left for dead heading into last season. Since his 2,000-yard season in 2003, he had been a ghost of his former self. He had never reached double-digits in touchdowns, never had more than 1,150 yards rushing and, in his final two seasons, he averaged just 3.5 yards a carry. It was over. He was hatched. The Ravens traded for Willis McGahee and cut Lewis adrift. He landed in Cleveland and the results were nothing short of amazing. In 15 games, he ran for 1,304 yards and nine touchdowns and caught 30 passes for 248 yards and two more TDs. His 4.3 yard rushing average was the highest since his 2,000-yard season and his 11 touchdowns were a similar high-water mark. He showed his ability to be a game-changer with 27 carries for 216 yards and a TD in a 51-45 win over Cincinnati and, his final seven games, he had rushing totals of 92-134-762-118-163-92-128. While he wasn’t a great TD scorer – four of his nine rushing TDs came in the same game – he is back in the discussion as a full-time fantasy starter. With the improvements the Browns made to their offense with the addition on Donte Stallworth to go into the receiving corps with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, there will be very few “8-in-the-box” situations Lewis will face. He has a lot of tread of the tires, but still looks to have some fuel left in the gas tank. STAT FACT: Lewis caught TD passes in back to back games in December of this year. That matches the career total of TD catches he had in the first 101 games of his career.
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