Shooting From the Hip...
2/20/2008
By Michael Nease


I’ve played this game so long (23 years) that I really shouldn’t be surprised by anything any more. Yet the 2007 season just ended was one that still has me cringing with could have beens and should have beens. And that just makes me antsy as can be for the 2008 season to begin. I really need to get that foul taste of 2007 out of my mouth.

Now you’re already thinking, “Mike’s teams must have been hit by the injury bug.” Sure that happened, but when you’ve played fantasy football a while, you learn to compensate for that. Injuries were a key to the 2007 season, with running backs falling like bowling pins-Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Travis Henry, Cedric Benson and more. Some have even proclaimed that the Stud Running Back Theory is dead.

Let’s pause on that thought for a second… Is the Stud Running Back Theory dead? Tom Brady and Randy Moss reached miraculous, never before attained heights. So does that mean you throw out a concept that has been proven in practice to be successful because the wide receiver lab rats we test to analyze this game got the cheese faster than the running backs for once. I for one say, NO!

You cannot expect that that several Top 20 running backs will go down for the count on a regular basis. You cannot assume that quarterbacks or wide receivers will have magical seasons every year. You cannot ignore the fact that there are only about 25 quality running backs and many more quality wide receivers.

Ladies and Gentlemen I am here to proclaim that the earth is not flat. It’s definitely round. And just as true as that, the Stud Running Back Theory is alive and well.

What really struck me about the 2007 season was my luck of the draw in scheduling. I know that out of the countless teams I have had over the last 23 years that sometimes the schedule has favored me and sometimes it has not. But never have I felt the bite of unlucky scheduling like I did in 2007.

Last June I was invited to play in the FFX Experts League. It was the inaugural year of a redrafter league and we had a large following for the draft in the Subscriber Forum. I had a great draft getting Tom Brady, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Brandon Marshall, Isaac Bruce, Heath Miller, Jeff Wilkins and the Baltimore defense.

I really thought I was all set. Then the season started:

1. I had the #1 Power rank from Week 1 all the way through the final week 13.
2. I won the points championship with 1,446 points in 13 weeks.
3. I was #1 in bench points with 729 points, exhibiting great depth.

So much for the upside…

1. I wound up with a 7-6 record and was only second in my division.
2. My six losses were by a combined total of 48 points as my opponents scored 1,373 points (3rd most).
3. I won one playoff game and then lost out on a trip to the Fantasy Bowl by two points.

I worked my butt off and had nothing to show for it. Playing seven of the other eleven schedules would have left me with either 10 or 11 wins. I worked the waiver wire as well as I could with having the worst waiver position every week. It just seemed like I was climbing a mountain all year and the peak just remained inches out of reach.

The only highlight was that I beat Jamie Eisenberg, a fantasy writer at CBS Sports, two times.

Now the SOFA IDP Experts League was another story. It was a PPR league and for the first time in my fantasy football life, I strayed big time from the Stud Running Back Theory. That was a HUGE mistake. Yes, I had Laveranues Coles, Torry Holt, and Chad Johnson. At running back I had Frank Gore, but wound up with Julius Jones as my #2 guy. At quarterback I had Marc Bulger. With Chris Cooley and Jeff Wilkins, I thought I had a decent overall team. I thought my strength at wide receiver would compensate for the shortfall at running back.

My IDPs included defensive linemen Mark Anderson and Ty Warren. At linebacker I had Gerald Hayes, June Cato and Shawne Merriman. My defensive backs were Anthony Henry.

I must have turned that team over 10 times in 13 weeks on the waiver wire. Injuries and inept performances were the only consistency from week to week. My opponents scored 2,595.94 points, almost 200 per week. That was the most in the league, with the least points scored against a team being 2,315.28, almost 22 points a week less.

About the only thing you can say about a 4-9 record is there is nowhere to go but up. The only highlight here was getting the third best weekly point performance with 246.38 in week 12.

Here scheduling hurt me a bit, but in all honesty, I had a bad draft. Going strong wide receiver hurt me at running back and I drafted a lot of under performing and/or injury plagued players. I worked the waiver wire religiously each week, but without much success. I can say that it was a learning experience and I can’t wait until next year.

Last year I told the story of a total rebuilding effort in my dynasty league (going into our 24th season). I tore a winning team apart (anchored by Larry Johnson and Frank Gore) just for the challenge of rebuilding a team from almost scratch.

I started the season with Jon Kitna, Marion Barber, Leon Washington, Bernard Berrien Ronald Curry, James Jones, Bo Scaife, Stephen Gostkowski, Nick Folk and the Cincinnati Bengals defense.

In a league where the three top teams averaged 100.9, 86.2 and 84.8 points per week, in the first 12 weeks my team gave up over 100 points eight times and 93 once. I won the other three games. Out of 43 games over 100 by the other teams in the league, I gave up eight of them, or 18.6% (almost one out of five).

I won the three games where my opponents scored less than 93, plus three of the last four games. So I was 6-1 where I gave up less than 93 points a week and 6-10 overall. As in SOFA, I had given up the most points with 1,453. The least points given up were 1,123, over 20 points per game less.

It was a step up, but I was not quite ready for a championship push. By the end of the year, I had dealt off Kitna for future draft picks. I picked up Brandon Jacobs, Bobby Engram, Tony Scheffler and the Tennessee team defense. And I almost forgot to mention, I have had Michael Turner on my bench for two seasons, waiting for him to leave the Chargers in free agency.

Since the end of the season I have been trading relentlessly to position myself to win and be in contention for all the marbles next year. My team is now quarterbacked by David Garrard and Jake Delhomme. I snagged Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to go with Michael Turner at running back. At wide receiver I have Santonio Holmes, Bobby Engram, Ted Ginn, James Jones, Jacoby Jones and Devin Hester. I have Tony Scheffler at tight end, Sebastian Janikowski as place kicker and the Green Bay defense.

I also have six medium round draft picks (from #31-#40) in about a 60 player rookie and free agent draft. I should be able to fill out my roster nicely. I will have taken my team from contender to the bottom and back up in the third season of rebuilding.

I was in three other leagues in 2007. In the Subscriber IDP league I did terrible. We ran it on Yahoo and Yahoo has a convoluted waiver system. With my boss now monitoring employee internet usage, I had a distinct disadvantage in trying to upgrade my hapless team. Don’t get me wrong. If I had been able to have 24/7 access to waivers I would have tried to grab all the top guys and hoard them. I sure can’t knock other people who were able to do that.

For 2008 we will hopefully get one of the comped leagues FF Mastermind gets at My Fantasy League. We will also make some adjustments to the IDP scoring to make them more relevant

I was also in a new league for me with my wife Bonnie, one of our subscribers Doc Wisconsin and a bunch of other folks. I missed the playoffs by one game and that one game was a last week loss to Bonnie, who made the playoffs with a strong team, but lost.

Bonnie and I also play in the Sporting News salary-cap; points only league with our two sons and a bunch o family friends. The winner averages about 2,400 points a week, or 41,000 points. I came in third out of 10 and lost by just over 200 points.

Fantasy football is fun and we certainly all spend a lot of time at it. The season is exciting and I really enjoy redrafter leagues. But for my money, a dynasty league is better because it’s a year round activity. While redrafter aficionados are longing for August in February, we are keying on the rookie crop, free agents and jockeying for position with trading.

All I know is that our dynasty draft is in just over six months from now. The FFX draft will probably be in early summer. Bring ‘em on. Let’s get the 2008 season started!


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