2008 First Thoughts - AFC/NFC North

5/13/2008
By Michael Nazarek


It's time to take a closer look at the North Division teams to see how they are shaping up coming off May mini-camps. Let’s get right to it…


AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens:
The Ravens slumped to a last-place 5-11 record in 2007 and HC Brian Billick was shown the door. Veteran QB Steve McNair suffered another injury and eventually retired this off-season. QB Kyle Boller, QB Troy Smith, and rookie QB Joe Flacco will battle it out this summer for the starting job. Any way you slice it, this could be an ugly situation for the Ravens' offense again, at least early in the season unless Flacco develops quickly. RB Willis McGahee remains the starter and most valued Ravens fantasy player. If he can stay healthy, he should be a top 10 fantasy producer. Rookie RB Ray Rice is the new obvious back-up with both RB Mike Anderson and RB Musa Smith gone. New OC Cam Cameron favors a 3-WR set, which means WR Derrick Mason, WR Mark Clayton and WR Demetrius Williams will often be on the field together, but Mason remains the consistent fantasy producer from this group. Mason will get the looks, while Clayton and Williams will make a few big plays here and there. WR Devard Darling wasn't re-signed, but the team drafted two wideouts for depth, WR Marcus Smith and WR Justin Harper. TE Todd Heap had most of his 2007 season wiped out by a hamstring injury, and hopes to return healthy. TE Dan Wilcox provides depth, but a torn ACL has ended TE Quinn Sypniewski's 2008 season early. Heap should remain a top 10 fantasy TE if his health holds up. PK Matt Stover returns again and will continue to provide decent fantasy production provided the offense clicks a bit more than it did last year. Quick Draft Summary: Other than the players mentioned, the Ravens drafted two offensive lineman, three defensive players and 7th-round draft pick RB Allen Patrick, whom will be lucky to make the team.

Cincinnati Bengals: Once again, the Bengals disappointed and finished with a 7-9 record in 2007. QB Carson Palmer had somewhat of a disappointing season himself, failing to come up with big fantasy games for his owners, with the exception of a shootout against the Browns early in the year. Palmer would be a lock for a top 5 fantasy position if he had no issues at the wideout position, but that's not the case with WR Chad Johnson threatening to sit out the season. QB Bryan Fitzpatrick was re-signed to back up Palmer. RB Rudi Johnson was a huge disappointment himself, failing to provide much spark, then injuring his hamstring and sitting out most of the second half of last season. Johnson is healthy, and returns to start, looking to rebound. RB Chris Perry is also finally healthy after a terrible ankle injury nearly cut his career short. Veteran RB Kenny Watson stepped up and produced some big games for the team last season, but seems only to be a fall-back player should Johnson and Perry not produce. Second-year RB Kenny Irons tore his ACL last season, and will be lucky to make any kind of impact at all in 2008. As for the wideout corps, Johnson is MIA and WR Chris Henry had another issue with the law and was released. That leaves an unhappy WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, looking for a new deal himself after two big seasons. WR Tab Perry is gone, and while WR Antonio Chatman was re-signed, he can't seem to stay healthy. WR Glenn Holt returns and WR Doug Gabriel was signed in a desperate attempt to fill positions during off-season mini-camps. The team also drafted WR Jerome Simpson and WR Andre Caldwell as possible future starters. The Bengals signed TE Ben Utecht in free agency and hope to use him as a real weapon with the wideout corps thin. TE Reggie Kelly returns, but he's never been a serious fantasy threat. PK Shayne Graham is one of the better kickers in the league, but chaos on offense could drag his stats down this year if the Bengals don't resolve their wideout issues by season's start. Quick Draft Summary: Most of the rest of the players drafted were offensive linemen or defensive players. A late-round tailback and tight end won't make much of an immediate impact, if any at all.

Cleveland Browns: The Browns were the surprise of the league last season, finishing 10-6, but missing the playoffs. QB Derek Anderson quickly took over for an ineffective QB Charlie Frye, and made the Pro Bowl. That left rookie QB Brady Quinn sitting firmly on the bench. The Browns re-signed Anderson as their starter, but I'm a bit cautious with regards to whether he can continue to produce big numbers. In the running game, RB Jamal Lewis was a big surprise himself, finishing with top 10 RB fantasy numbers and 11 scores. The question here also is can he do it again? Well, the Browns think so, since they re-signed him this off-season. RB Jerome Harrison and RB Jason Wright return to provide depth and backup Lewis. I must give WR Braylon Edwards credit. When he first entered the league, I thought he was a punk. Well, I was wrong. Edwards truly rededicated himself to his team and teammates and produced a big season in 2007. The Browns signed WR Donte Stallworth to start opposite Edwards, while WR Joe Jurevicius slides into the slot as the #3 WR. WR Tim Carter is gone. The team did draft WR Paul Hubbard in the 6th round for depth purposes. TE Kellen Winslow had another surgery on his knee this off-season, but proved he can play and produce with pain, as he did last year. Winslow wants a new deal, but the Browns aren't showing any inclination of giving him one now. Furthermore, the team traded a 2009 3rd-round draft pick to take TE Martin Rucker in the 4th round this April as insurance just in case things turn ugly with Winslow. TE Steve Heiden also provides depth behind Winslow. PK Phil Dawson returns, and deserves a bit of consideration as a fantasy back-up kicker, that is if you think the Browns offense will hold up in 2008. Quick Draft Summary: The Browns had only three other draft picks in April, and took defensive players with all three of them.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers won their division, then promptly lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs last year. QB Ben Roethlisberger returns as the starter coming off a good fantasy season. He's a borderline top 5 fantasy QB heading into 2008. QB Charlie Batch returns to back up Roethlisberger, while QB Dennis Dixon was drafted in April to eventually replace Batch. In the running game, RB Willie Parker led the league in rushing much of last year, but scored only a few times, often being pulled at the goal for RB Najeh Davenport. The Steelers drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall this April, and seem intent on using him early and often to keep Parker fresh. Parker will no doubt lose looks in the passing game to Mendenhall, and likely goal carries as well. That will push Parker out of the top 10 fantasy RBs for 2008, if not beyond the top 15. The team signed veteran RB Mewelde Moore for kick return duty and another set of hands on third downs. In the passing game, WR Santonio Holmes returns as the big-play receiver, but is prone to injuries here and there. He'll start alongside veteran WR Hines Ward, whom is coming off a knee injury himself. Both of these players are top 25 fantasy WRs, but not top 10 caliber producers. WR Cedric Wilson was released after a run-in with the law, but veteran WR Nate Washington returns to fill the #3 WR job. The Steelers also drafted WR Limas Sweed, whom will push Washington for his job this summer. TE Heath Miller remains the starting tight end, and a solid fantasy starter in 12-team leagues. PK Jeff Reed returns, but remains an enigma for fantasy owners. Some weeks he'll kick 3+ FGs, but he often has periods where the Steelers don't get him any FGAs and he'll struggle to score just three points. Quick Draft Summary: The Steelers drafted three defensive players and an offensive lineman with their other picks this past April.


NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears:
Coming off a Super Bowl appearance, the Bears slumped to an ugly 7-9 record in 2007 and their prospects don't seem too good for 2008 as well. The quarterback position remains a mess, as the Bears chose not to sign any free-agent veterans, meaning both QB Rex Grossman and QB Kyle Orton will openly compete for the job this summer. They did make one move at the position, trading QB Brian Griese to the Buccaneers. Can you say AVOID? In the running game, RB Cedric Benson returns, but a recent run-in with the law raises doubts about his future with the team. It appears the Bears will keep him and let him battle it out with rookie RB Matt Forte for the starting job come training camp. I firmly believe Forte will be starting by October, if not sooner. Veteran backup RB Adrian Peterson returns to provide depth at the position, while second-year RB Garrett Wolfe will do his best to make a splash in 2008. In the passing game, the wideout corps has been decimated. Free-agent WR Bernard Berrian left to sign a big deal with the Vikings and WR Muhsin Muhammad was released. That leaves WR Mark Bradley and WR Rashied Davis as the first two in line to earn starting jobs, if they don't fall flat on their face this summer. KR/WR Devin Hester will also get a chance to expand his role in the receiving game. The Bears brought WR Marty Booker back to the team, but does he have anything left in the tank? I suppose he might get a chance to start too. They also signed WR Brandon Lloyd. Why? I have no idea. The one area the Bears are strong in and didn't mess it up is at tight end, where veteran TE Desmond Clark and second-year TE Greg Olsen will both provide a strong presence in the passing game. Too bad they are two players, not one, for fantasy owners' sakes. PK Robbie Gould is one of the better kickers in the league and was just rewarded with a new contract, making him the highest paid kicker in he league. Unfortunately, the Bears lack of offense doesn't make him a sure-fire fantasy starter. Quick Draft Summary: The Bears drafted WR Earl Bennett in the third round to beef up their wideout corps. Fifth-round draft pick TE Kellen Davis is more a blocker than a pass-catcher. Seventh-round draft pick WR Marcus Monk will have to work hard to make the team. The remaining eight draft picks were offensive linemen and defensive players.

Detroit Lions: After a 10-win prediction by QB Jon Kitna, the Lions came up short, winning only 7 games in 2008. Well, the prediction, along with Kitna, returned this off-season, but big questions remain regarding Detroit's hopes for a winning season. Kitna loses OC Mike Martz and his pass-happy ways, meaning less running and gunning in Detroit. That will likely keep Kitna outside the top 10 fantasy QBs. Second-year QB Drew Stanton is in line to back up Kitna and take over down the road. RB Kevin Jones (torn ACL) was released, while RB Tatum Bell returns as a shaky assumed-to-be-starter. RB Artose Pinner was added for depth, but the real starter for 2008 will eventually be rookie RB Kevin Smith, draft in April. There were so many rumors regarding a trade of WR Roy Williams, my head was spinning. Fortunately, the Lions came to their senses and kept the talented receiver. He'll start opposite WR Calvin Johnson, a player on the verge of fantasy stardom. WR Mike Furrey and WR Shaun McDonald return to provide depth and solid veteran production. Rookie WR Kenneth Moore was drafted to provide further depth at the position. TE Dan Campbell is coming off an injury, so the team signed TE Michael Gaines to boost the tight end position, but the Lions haven't used a tight end to catch passes seriously in many seasons. PK Jason Hanson is still an ageless wonder. He remains one of the most accurate kickers in the game, and should see enough scoring chances to be worth a look by fantasy owners this summer. Quick Draft Summary: The rest of the Lions draft class is filled with defensive players, an offensive lineman, and a fullback.

Green Bay Packers: Packers fans got the surprise of their life when QB Brett Favre surprisingly retired this off-season after looking like he would return for at least more season. QB Aaron Rodgers becomes the new starter. He filled in for a dinged Favre against the Cowboys last season and showed promise, but he's certainly not Favre. Fantasy value? A decent fantasy back-up with potential for more. The Packers drafted QB Brian Brohm for depth and to possibly become the face of the future should Rodgers not fill the bill. Free-agent QB Daunte Culpepper visited before the draft, but wasn't signed. In the running game, RB Ryan Grant emerged during the second half of last season. He's clearly the starter with the potential for top 10 fantasy numbers, provided Rodgers leads the team with an effective passing game, something that is very much uncertain to happen. Otherwise, Grant will face 8-men in the box and could struggle. Second-year RB Brandon Jackson is slated to back-up Grant, while RB Vernand Morency sees some action on third downs. In the passing game, WR Donald Driver lost his place as the top wideout threat to WR Greg Jennings, whom scored nearly every week he played last season. However, the loss of Favre in the passing game will hurt both of these wideouts in 2008. Second-year WR James Jones returns to fill the #3 WR job. Veteran WR Koren Robinson was recently released, while WR Ruvell Martin returns for depth. In addition, the Packers drafted WR Jordy Nelson and WR Brett Swain this April to boost production. TE Bubba Franks signed with the Jets this off-season after TE Donald Lee emerged as a solid fantasy threat. Obviously, Lee's fantasy future is tied to the success of Rodgers, just like the starting wideouts. Second-year PK Mason Crosby became one of the better fantasy kickers last year with the offense humming. With Rodgers at the helm, that might or might not continue. Draft him in your league this summer accordingly. Quick Draft Summary: The Packers drafted TE Jermichael Finley in the 3rd round to replace Franks. QB Matt Flynn was drafted late, but has only an outside shot to make an impact in the NFL. The Packers other draft picks were offensive linemen and defensive players.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings surprised last year, making a late run for the playoffs, which came up a bit short. Unfortunately, second-year QB Tarvaris Jackson had more downs than ups in 2007, and questions remain whether he is truly the team's quarterback of the future. He'll enter the 2008 season as the starter, but the team did sign veteran QB Gus Frerotte to cover themselves in Jackson regresses. One thing that is not in question is the fact second-year RB Adrian Peterson is not only the starter, but a top 3 fantasy STUD RB to boot! RB Chester Taylor will back him up and provide a change of pace here and there. RB Mewelde Moore and RB Artose Pinner left via free agency, while RB Maurice Hicks was signed for depth. In the passing game, the Vikings were extremely thin at wideout these past two years, so they signed free-agent WR Bernard Berrian this off-season to be their new #1 WR. The potential is there for good fantasy production, but Jackson must develop chemistry quickly with Berrian, and continue to mature in his own development. WR Sidney Rice and WR Bobby Wade return to fill the #2 and #3 WR roles, while WR Troy Williamson was traded to Jacksonville. Rookie WR Jaymar Johnson was drafted for depth and his kick return abilities. WR Robert Ferguson was also re-signed to boost the corps production. TE Visanthe Shiancoe barely scratched the surface in 2007 when it comes to fantasy production, something that is likely to continue in 2008. TE Jim Kleinsasser is more a blocker than a pass-catcher. PK Ryan Longwell could return to decent fantasy status if the Vikings offense improves as expected. Best of all, he can be had very late in most drafts as a fantasy backup. Quick Draft Summary: QB John David Booty was drafted for future development. The other three Vikings draft picks were an offensive lineman and two defensive players.

That does it for the North divisions. Look for my views regarding the teams in the South very shortly.  All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

back to top

 
| Home |
| What's New! |


Questions/Comments:
Fill out Our Questions/Comments Form

© 1996 - 2008 Fantasy Football Mastermind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Do not copy or redistribute in any way without permission.
Our Privacy Policy