2008 First Thoughts - AFC/NFC East

5/1/2008
By Michael Nazarek


May is here and it’s time once again to take a look at the fantasy potential regarding all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming 2008 season. Free agency is over for the most part, and the NFL Draft recently took place, so teams will be making mostly small moves to tweak their rosters before training camps begin later this summer. Believe it or not, we are less than three months away from the start of those camps. I'm starting to get excited just thinking about it! As in years past, this series of articles will begin in the East and I'll work my way West. Let's get right to it, there's a lot to discuss...

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills:
The Bills suffered through a myriad of injuries, but still managed to win seven games last year. I never liked QB J.P. Losman, whom eventually lost his starting job to QB Trent Edwards. Edwards has a bit of fantasy potential, but the Bills need to develop more serious threats in the passing game if he's to become a decent fantasy starter. As for Losman, he's still on the team as the backup, although he'd like to be traded. The real fantasy production for the Bills comes from second year starting RB Marshawn Lynch. He's a top 10 fantasy talent stuck on a mediocre team, which lowers his fantasy stock just a bit. Veteran RB Anthony Thomas is gone, leaving Lynch as the only real threat at the tailback position. WR Lee Evans is clearly still the #1 option in the passing game, while veteran WR Peerless Price was released. WR Josh Reed and WR Roscoe Parrish will battle to fill the other starting job, but I'm not impressed. Rookie WR James Hardy was drafted in the second round, as he'll try to help out when called upon, but he's not very quick. Looks like Evans will once again face double-teams, while trying to make big plays. TE Robert Royal doesn't get enough serious looks in the passing game for fantasy interest. Rookie TE Derek Fine provides depth and may eventually develop if given the attention and time to do so. PK Rian Lindell remains a solid kicker, but the Bills offense doesn't score enough for real fantasy consideration. Quick Draft Summary: Outside of the two rookies mentioned above, the Bills drafted five defensive players, and a RB and WR in the 6th and 7th rounds respectively.

Miami Dolphins: What more can be said about the Dolphins' 1-15 season in 2007 than the word HORRIBLE? Once RB Ronnie Brown went down with a torn ACL, the entire team was a black hole in terms of fantasy production. Bill Parcells has been hired to get the Fish back on track, and he hired Tony Sparano as the new head coach. QB Trent Green and QB Cleo Lemon are both gone, leaving second-year QB John Beck and veteran QB Josh McCown to battle it out to start. Rookie QB Chad Henne has potential to start somewhere down the road if things get really bad. Bottom Line: Avoiding a Dolphins QB this summer in your fantasy draft is a good thing once again. RB Ronnie Brown is working hard in his rehab, and the team expects him to be ready by training camp, but we all know it takes two years for a tailback to return to form. Enter RB Ricky Williams. He returns and should get a chance to contribute early again this coming season. RB Lorenzo Booker was traded to the Eagles and RB Jesse Chatman signed with the Jets, while the Dolphins drafted two RBs late in last weekend's draft. Bottom Line: It appears the RBBC tandem of Brown and Williams will be looked upon to carry the load. WR Chris Chambers was traded to the Chargers during the 2007 season and WR Marty Booker was released. The Dolphins signed WR Ernest Wilford, whom immediately becomes their new #1 veteran WR. Second-year WR Tedd Ginn Jr. is expected to start opposite Wilford, while others such as WR Derek Hagan and newly signed WR Tab Perry try to make an impact. Wilford was an inconsistent fantasy producer in Jacksonville when the QB position had real talent, so drafting him in a fantasy league this summer as anything more than a depth pick is pushing the envelope. TE David Martin returns, but will have to battle newly acquired TE Anthony Fasano for the starting job. TE Justin Peelle and TE Sean Ryan provided depth. Let's just say I'm not thrilled with this position in fantasy terms either. PK Jay Feely is a decent kicker, but will be lucky to kick 20 FGs this season, making him another kicker to ignore in your fantasy draft. Quick Draft Summary: With their other picks in April, the Dolphins drafted offensive linemen and three defensive players. They focused on filling run-blocking and pass-rushing needs, but that won't help the team score much more for fantasy owners.

New England Patriots: 18-1 is much sweeter to me than 19-0. It made my YEAR when my Giants defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but this is a different season. And QB Tom Brady remains THE QB TO OWN for fantasy owners heading into the 2008 season. QB Matt Cassel returns to back up Brady, but barring injury, he won't see much on-field play. Rookie QB Kevin O'Connell is set to fill the #3 QB role. In the running game, RB Laurence Maroney returns as the starter, but remains an inconsistent fantasy producer. With RB Sammy Morris returning to health, Maroney will lose much of the goal line touches once again. In addition, RB Kevin Faulk returns to steal more touches here and there. Still, Maroney will have his moments in 2008. In the passing game, WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker are the studly starters, both making top 15, if not top 10 fantasy WR choices. WR Donte Stallworth and WR Troy Brown are gone, leaving WR Jabar Gaffney as the odds on favorite to fill the #3 WR role, a job he fell into late last season. WR Kelley Washington also returns for depth purposes and special teams duty. TE Ben Watson returns as the starter at tight end, while TE David Thomas and newly signed veteran TE Marcus Pollard provide backup. TE Kyle Brady has been let go. PK Stephen Gostkowski is a top 5 fantasy kicker simply due to the plethora of PATs he'll see once again in 2008. He's also not bad with regards to accuracy in the field goal department. Quick Draft Summary: The Patriots chose five defensive players in the draft, and a special teams development player. In other words, a veteran offense isn't getting any younger in 2008.

New York Jets:
The Jets sunk back to the depths of a poor NFL team last year, winning a measly four games. QB Chad Pennington lost the starting job to QB Kellen Clemens, but Clemens couldn't seal the deal himself, meaning an open competition come summer. Unfortunately, neither of these players can be counted upon for consistent fantasy production. Rookie QB Erik Ainge will be brought along slowly and could make an impact down the road if both Pennington and Clemens flop again. RB Thomas Jones is a solid tailback, but scored just once in 2007. Had the Jets been able to draft rookie RB Darren McFadden last weekend, all their RB worries would be history. Sadly, that wasn't the case when the Raiders snatched him two picks before the Jets. As a result, RB Leon Washington will remain the change-of-pace back, but one hardly worthy of serious fantasy consideration, at least as a starter. RB Jesse Chatman was signed for depth purposes, while veteran FB Tony Richardson will do the blocking. In the passing game, WR Laveranues Coles and WR Jerricho Cotchery still provide a nice 1-2 punch, but WR Justin McCareins and WR Tim Dwight are gone. WR Brad Smith is likely to fill the #3 WR role for the team. TE Chris Baker had a career high 41 catches last year, but won't even make $700,000 in 2008, while the Jets signed veteran TE Bubba Franks as the backup at more than double the cost. As a result, Baker has left the team's off-season program, but the Jets didn't flinch, drafting TE Dustin Keller last weekend, a big pass-catching threat. Keller is definitely one to keep your eye on this summer. PK Mike Nugent has quietly become one of the better kickers in the league, but inconsistent scoring chances make him a risky fantasy proposition for 2008. Quick Draft Summary: The Jets also drafted two defensive players along with an offensive lineman and a 6th round wideout in WR Marcus Henry, whom may have trouble making the team if he drops passes like he did in college.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys:
The Cowboys won their division, but lost to my Giants in last season's playoffs. For the most part, the offense wasn't the issue, as QB Tony Romo continued his rise to the status of fantasy STUD QB. Romo is a top 3 fantasy QB in 2008. If he can stay healthy, good things will continue to happen for the Cowboys and fantasy owners this year. Restricted free-agent RB Marion Barber has yet to sign a new deal, but it's only a matter of time before it gets done. He starts in 2008, as RB Julius Jones wasn't re-signed. Rookie RB Felix Jones was drafted to back up and provide a change of pace for Barber. Barber is a top 10 fantasy back no matter what percentage of carries the Cowboys give Jones. In the passing game, WR Terrell Owens redeveloped into a top wideout threat for fantasy owners last year, and will remain that way in 2008. Owner and GM Jerry Jones said this week that WR Terry Glenn (knee) is 50/50 to start for the club this season. If Glenn doesn't start, WR Patrick Crayton will step into that role again and continue to flourish. WR Sam Hurd, WR Miles Austin and WR Isaiah Stanback return to provide depth for this corps. Hurd would likely step into the #3 role should Glenn bow out. TE Jason Witten became a top fantasy TE threat last year with Romo's help. Look for that to continue as well in 2008. TE Anthony Fasano was traded to the Dolphins, while TE Tony Curtis was re-signed to provide backup. Second-year PK Nick Folk quickly became a top fantasy kicker with plenty of scoring chances and dead on accuracy. Look for more of the same here, too. Quick Draft Summary: Second-round draft pick TE Martellus Bennett has a lot of size and potential. Fourth-round draft pick RB Tashard Choice will provide depth at the tailback position. The other three picks for the Cowboys were defensive players.

New York Giants: My favorite team blew through the 2007 NFL playoffs ON THE ROAD and beat the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII! Boy, that just sounds great, but can they repeat? It will be tough, but QB Eli Manning has finally come of age and is his own man in the NFL. He returns as the starter, but is he a top 10 fantasy QB? He could be, but the Giants still like to run too much and Manning is still prone to inconsistent play, making him a borderline fantasy starter in 12-team leagues. In the running game, RB Brandon Jacobs remains the starter, but injuries hurt him last year, so the Giants made sure to re-sign RB Derrick Ward and kept RB Reuben Droughns around as well. And then there's second-year RB Ahmad Bradshaw, who developed into a tough smaller back that runs well between the tackles late last year. Bottom Line: It's a RBBC in New York, one where any of these backs can have their moment in the sun in 2008. In the passing game, WR Plaxico Burress remains the class of the corps, but ankle and knee injuries limited his effectiveness in 2007. If he can stay healthy in 2008, watch out! WR Amani Toomer also returns as the other starter, an aging veteran who remains underrated most of the time. Second-year WR Steve Smith might push Toomer for his job, or at the very least fill the #3 WR role. WR David Tyree made the catch of his life in the big game last February, but remains an inconsistent producer. With the addition of rookie WR Mario Manningham, WR Sinorice Moss could find himself without a job if he doesn't impress come camp time. There was much speculation that the Giants would trade TE Jeremy Shockey on draft day for picks and perhaps a player, but nothing materialized, and he remains the team's starter. I hope he sticks with the Giants, but wouldn't be surprised to see a trade eventually happen. Shockey wants to play more of a pass-catching role most of the time, while the Giants want him to block as much as he runs routes. If he sticks, he remains a top 10 fantasy TE. Second-year TE Kevin Boss made a big catch in the Super Bowl, and seems ready to emerge should Shockey be dealt. PK Lawrence Tynes booted the Giants into the Super Bowl with a game-winner in Green Bay, and the Giants rewarded him with a new deal. He's a decent kicker, but often has good weeks followed by poor ones. Quick Draft Summary: The Giants took S Kenny Phillips in the first round to fill the hole left by the departure of S Gibril Wilson. The team also drafted four more defensive players and QB Andre' Woodson from Kentucky in the 6th round.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles couldn't manage to climb out of an early hole and missed the playoffs in 2007 with a very average 8-8 record. QB Donovan McNabb spent most of the season trying to get back to 100% coming off a torn ACL. By season's end, he was showing signs of his former self, making big plays, as the team won their final three games. McNabb remains the starter, and should rebound into the top 10 fantasy QBs if he stay healthy. In other words, the QB Kevin Kolb era will likely have to wait at least another year. RB Brian Westbrook remains the focal point of the offense, and is a top 3 fantasy STUD RB. His knee may still be an issue, but he proved to all last year that he and the Eagles can manage it, and he can still flourish on the field of play. RB Correll Buckhalter returns as Westbrook's backup, while the team traded for RB Lorenzo Booker for depth purposes. In the passing game, WR Reggie Brown and WR Kevin Curtis return as the starters, while the team added WR DeSean Jackson via the draft. Jackson fits well in the slot #3 WR hole. WR Greg Lewis and WR Hank Baskett round out the receiving corps. The Eagles surprised most people by tagging TE L.J. Smith this off-season to keep him as their starter. Smith has signed the deal, and is eager to show the team he's healthy and can contribute as they expect he still can. If he does, he's in line for a new long-term deal next off-season. TE Kris Wilson was signed for blocking and depth purposes. PK David Akers is still one of my favorite kickers, but a lack of scoring chances really hampered his fantasy production in 2007. Let's just say I bet you can snag him in the final round or two of your fantasy draft this summer and be happy with his production. Quick Draft Summary: Other than Jackson, the Eagles drafted nine players, all of whom are either offensive linemen or defensive players.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins made a late run into the playoffs last year, but dropped out early with a loss. HC Joe Gibbs retired and new HC Jim Zorn takes over. QB Jason Campbell returns as the starter and showed flashes of fantasy potential early last year before struggling to produce before suffering an injury that cut his season short. He makes an interesting late-round fantasy backup QB choice this summer, one that still has potential. QB Todd Collins flashed last season while Campbell was injured, but returns only as the primary backup. I've never really been a big fan of RB Clinton Portis, mostly due to his recent knee issues, but the Redskins have committed to him as their starter for the next 2+ seasons, and when healthy, he is productive. RB Ladell Betts remains a quality backup, but this is Portis' team, that is, if he stays healthy. Once again, FB Rock Cartwright returns as the lead fullback and kick-returner for the team. WR Santana Moss returns as the #1 WR, while WR Antwaan Randle El made improvements in his game as the other starter, actually scoring more than just once every blue moon. WR Brandon Lloyd was finally cut, while the Redskins drafted WR Devin Thomas and WR Malcom Kelly to boost the receiving corps. Washington finally has enough talent to use 3- and 4-WR sets. TE Chris Cooley returns as one of the most dangerous fantasy producing pass-catching tight ends in the league, and should see better match-ups with more talent on the field in multiple WR sets. Rookie TE Fred Davis was drafted to provide depth at the position. PK Shaun Suisham is the kicker, but doesn't score enough for real fantasy consideration. Quick Draft Summary: Most of the rest of the Redskins rookie class are offensive linemen or defensive players except for a punter and a late-round flier pick on QB Colt Brennan, a player with a bit of potential, but more of a long-term project.

That's a wrap for the two Eastern divisions. Be sure to join me over the coming weeks as I offer my First Thoughts on the other six divisions. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

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