2007 Sleeper Preview

by Michael Nazarek

Everyone knows about Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Torry Holt. The top 50 players taken in most fantasy drafts will likely be the same group of players. What separates the men from the boys is knowing who will produce when they are not expected to produce. To this end, I will supply you with sleeper lists of players at each of the key fantasy positions. Consider each and weigh them against your league competition. I will list sleepers in three distinct categories… obvious, darkhorses, and long-shots. I have also offered my “deep sleeper” at each position

For those of you wondering exactly what I said about RB Frank Gore (months before he became the 49er's starting RB and a STUD fantasy RB) on these pages last JUNE, read on…

The Obvious Sleeper (Excerpt From 2006 Draft Guide)

Frank Gore (San Francisco) - Gore is coming off shoulder surgeries this off-season, but his competition for the starting job in San Francisco is in the same boat. RB Kevan Barlow had knee surgery, and has yet to prove that he can carry the load for the 49ers. HC Mike Nolan isn't talking about his starter. But all indications say that the job can be won with a good showing by Gore this summer. Barlow has already had his chances and blew them. Gore has the talent to produce and win the job. And he's going in the 7th round of most 12-team drafts this summer. If you like to wait to grab your #3 fantasy RB, you could do a lot worse than draft Gore.

Below you will find PARTIAL analysis of some of the 51 2007 sleepers we offer with each player mentioned. As a reminder, this is only a portion of the players listed in each category.

QUARTERBACKS

The Obvious

Jon Kitna (Detroit) - Kitna threw 21 TD passes last year, but also managed 22 interceptions. He also threw a career-high 4208 passing yards and gets top draft pick WR Calvin Johnson added to the arsonal in 2007. Despite the foot injury to RB Kevin Jones, the team acquired RB Tatum Bell via trade and signed RB T.J. Duckett. Defenses won't be able to tee off on Kitna due to the solid running game, giving him more chances to improve upon those TD and yardage numbers. Outside the top 6 ranked QB, Kitna is the QB to target in your draft.

Jay Cutler (Denver) - Cutler delivered a surprising nine TD passes in the five games he played in 2006. He's got the big arm and takes pressure in the pocket with ease. HC Mike Shanahan has full confidence in Cutler, so much so that the Broncos traded QB Jake Plummer to the Bucs. Cutler has developed chemistry with WR Javon Walker, and upcoming WR Brandon Marshall is poised to make an impact as the #2 WR. Veteran WR Rod Smith is finally healthy and should provide stabilty to the passing game. All in all, Cutler appears on track to have a long and prosperous career for fantasy owners as the long-term starter for the Broncos.

The Longshot

Matt Schaub (Houston) - Schaub has always shown great potential to be a solid pocket-passing starting NFL QB, but was stuck behind QB Michael Vick in Atlanta. No more. Schaub was traded to the Texans this off-season, and annointed the new starter. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Texans offensive line hasn't exactly improved this off-season. The same line that got QB David Carr sacked countless times will try their hands at protecting Schaub. Good luck, Matt! I think you'll need it playing for the soft Texans. Schaub is the epitome of the long-shot fantasy sleeper in 2007.

RUNNING BACKS

The Obvious

Thomas Jones (New York Jets) - I really like the move the Jets made by acquiring Jones from the Bears. He's an underrated, tough runner, who is much younger than his 28 years indicate since he hasn't been the workhorse back everywhere he's played. He can not only run well, but is also a great pass-catcher. With RB Curtis Martin all but retired, the Jets sorely needed an everydown back to go along with scatback RB Leon Washington. Jones is that missing piece, and makes a great #3 fantasy STUD RB. Fantasy owners who draft him will be more than happy with his production.

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams (Tampa Bay) - The Caddy ran on three wheels most of the 2006 season, leading to a disappointing year in which Williams only scored once and failed to rush for even 800 yards. This summer, the Caddy is healthy and is ready to rebound with a veteran presence at QB in Jeff Garcia. HC Jon Gruden also wants Williams to catch more passes, indicating that 60 was a good number. Whether that materializes or not remains to be seen, but health and a fresh start with a new offensive leader will certainly get the Caddy back on track in 2007.

The Darkhorse

Jerious Norwood (Atlanta) - RB Warrick Dunn has scored more than five TDs in any one season just once in the past four years. In addition, Dunn's pass-catching numbers have declined in each of the past five years. Norwood is a speedster, that can give the Falcons that extra burst that Dunn seemingly can no longer provide. He also averaged a gawdy 6.4 yards per carry last year, so you know the Falcons will want to give Norwood more touches. With new HC Bobby Petrino on board, don't be shocked if there's a changing of the guard this summer with Norwood starting over Dunn. Stranger things have happened…

WIDE RECEIVERS

The Obvious

Donald Driver (Green Bay) - How could Driver be a sleeper? Well, a sleeper is a player that you can draft later than his real value indicates. Driver is the epitome of the obvious sleeper. The guy is a top 10 fantasy WR producer, but gets no respect. Most services barely rank him in the top 15. That might be the case if QB Brett Favre was retired, but that's not the case! Driver has produced at least 1,200 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons. Heck, he's one of the most consistent fantasy producers and smart STUD RB Theorists smile when they take him as their #1 WR in the 4th round of a 12-team draft, as I did this May.

Deion Branch (Seattle) - The Seahawks traded WR Darrell Jackson to the 49ers on Draft Day and subsequently moved Branch into his receiving position on the team. Clearly, they want Branch to step into Jackson's old role and produce as a #1 WR should. Branch has the talent to do so, but still needs to develop more chemistry with QB Matt Hasselbeck this summer. The team re-signed WR Bobby Engram, while WR D.J. Hackett and WR Nate Burleson return, meaning their's plenty of veteran depth to take the pressure off Branch. When compared to last summer for Branch (holdout in New England), things couldn't get much rosier for the veteran receiver.

The Darkhorse

Vincent Jackson (San Diego) - Jackson caught just 27 passes last season, but averaged nearly 17 yards per catch and scored six times. WR Keenan McCardell was released, and GM A.J. Smith has said the team expects Jackson to step up his play and become the #1 WR for the team. Jackson has the size, speed, and hands to do just that, but don't expect him to overtake TE Antonio Gates. Still, Jackson should improive upon his numbers, and could push the 8-10 TD range for owners who risk a mid-round draft pick on him.

Mark Clayton (Baltimore) - Clayton nearly topped the 1,000-yard receiving mark in 2006, scoring five times in the process. While WR Derrick Mason's numbers are in decline, the Ravens coaches fully expect Clayton to emerge as the team's new #1 WR threat. Clayton has developed good chemistry with QB Steve McNair, and should easily improve on those numbers. He's another player on the rise, and should make many big plays for the Ravens in 2007. Taking him as a #4 WR in the middle rounds of your draft is highly recommended.

The Long-Shot

Ronald Curry (Oakland) - When Curry first hit the NFL as a Raider and got some significant playing time, he scored six times and caught 50 passes in 2004. Then came the many injuries that sidetracked his career. Curry is finally healthy, and with WR Randy Moss traded to the Patriots, Curry stands to start opposite WR Jerry Porter. Although the QB situation is unstable with rookie QB JaMarcus Russell, inexperienced QB Andrew Walter, and QB Josh McCown battling it out, Curry is one of the few veterans at the receiving position. That means an inexperienced QB could lean on his veterans to help get the job done. Any way you slice it, that's a good sign for a healthy Curry.

TIGHT ENDS

The Obvious

Jason Witten (Dallas) - Witten had nearly identical statistics in 2006 when compared to 2005 with one ugly exception, his TD total dropped from six down to one. Otherwise, fantasy owners can't complain about his 64 catches for 754 yards. With QB Tony Romo leading the team, Witten seemed to be more involved in the passing game. And in off-season OTAs, Witten often found himself the star of many practices, making big catches on deep over-the-middle routes. Best of all, Witten working hard to be a bigger threat, especially in the red zone. "You have to attack down there when you are a tight end," Witten said. "When you look at good tight ends, everybody in the stadium knows where it's going, and you just can't stop it. That's what good tight ends do." Bottom Line: Look for an improvement in the scoring category for Witten, getting him back on track to be a solid fantasy producer.

The Darkhorse

David Martin (Miami) - I've always liked Martin as a fantasy producer, as he has a knack for the goal. Unfortunately, he always seems to be sidelined with an injury, and play hurt. This off-season, he signed with the Dolphins, a team that dumped TE Randy McMichael. Provided Martin stays healthy (and that's a big IF), he'll start and might be good for a half dozen scores or so. Certainly, new HC Cam Cameron likes him, and has been using him often in the passing game during team practices, especially near the goal. Bottom Line: The opportunity is there. Will Martin's health hold up?

The Longshot

Visanthe Shiancoe (Minnesota) - This label of Shiancoe as a sleeper is a John Holler special. Holler is our Vikings Update correspondent, and he tells me that the Vikings plan to use Shiancoe heavily in the passing game. He could emerge as a serious red zone threat as well. Shiancoe didn't get to display much of his talent for the Giants behind TE Jeremy Shockey, but that will change in Minnesota. Of course, he'll have to develop chemistry with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson to make an impact, but results from off-season practices have been encouraging.

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