Free 2007 Guide Sneak Peek - The 10 Demandments

The 2007 10 Demandments

by: The Almighty God (as told to his humble servant John Holler)

Editor's Note: Below you will find FIVE of the TEN Fantasy Demandments for 2006. If you'd like to read all ten, please click HERE to order our 2006 Pre-Season Draft Guide.

O.K. Maybe it’s a bit over the top to give God a co-byline, but ask yourself this – do you spend more time in church during a year or working on fantasy football-related things? Huh? So, here’s what he told me.

The fantasy season takes many twists and turns, but one thing that always remains constant is that you start your season with a draft. Even if you have leagues that allow carryover players of some kind, the draft is where you build your team and maintain your team. It’s the area during the season where everyone has a level playing field. God gave of the Ten Commandments to give you a moral code for life, we give you our annual Ten Demandments – a list of rules that, if followed, will lead you to good things in 2007. Like the Commandments, picking and choosing is allowed, but not encouraged. Follow these rules and you will greatly enhance your chances of seeing the promised land.

The First Demandment

Thou Shalt Not Make Peyton the Chosen One – It’s understandable why the instinct to take Peyton Manning in the mid- to late portions of the first round is there. There’s no debating his domination of his position. If you’re picking seventh or eighth or beyond, you could make an argument that Manning is better than any running back on your board. Fair enough. But, by taking Manning on the first round, you almost guarantee two other things. First, you are likely almost handcuffed to take two running backs with your next picks. Even though a premiere wide receiver may be sitting there for you, the skeletonization of running backs in 10- or 12-player leagues is so pronounced that a minimum of eight or nine go in the first round and nearly as many in the second. By taking Manning with the seventh or eighth pick, an owner ends up with somewhere in the neighborhood of the 12th best running back with the second round pick and, more than likely about No. 18 or 19 on the way back. Second, by forcing yourself to take running backs on your next two picks, you’re also going to miss out on any of the top wide receivers that would be on the board. We know Manning is the best QB in the game and can put up monster numbers any given week, but by taking him, you have taken away all of your options for the next three rounds. No matter how you play it, you’re going to be using two picks on running backs and one on wide receiver – and the better the wideout, the more iffy the running backs.

The Second Demandment

Thou Shalt Not Covet Covering His Own Ass – Over time and the evolution of the species, even Demandments can be altered. There was a time not too long ago that the two-running back system was a sign that one guy was either a huge injury risk or neither was really good enough to hold the load on his own. As recently as three or four years ago, if you didn’t have a 20-carry-a-game starting RB, there was something wrong with you. But that has changed. More and more teams are coming into the season with backs of different skills. All four of the Final Four NFL teams last year had dual RB threats. Granted, two of them no longer have the same tandem, but more teams have jumped on that bandwagon by proclaiming players 1 and 1A. In the time where only few teams had formidable running tandems, a Demandment clearly stated that thou shalt cover one’s own ass by taking both to guarantee one starter when the dust settled. But those days are over. Several teams have a two-RB system and there’s no clear-cut answer to who will be this year’s Marion Barber and who will be Julius Jones? But, for this year anyway, CMA isn’t playing. For 2007, line up two running backs that are secure in their position and, when it comes to the competition, pick one guy in the fight that you’re convinced will get the leg up and move on to another team where you have a feeling about the underdog. You may miss on one or two, but if you hit right on one of your last three RBs, you’re going to have a solid third starter. God forbid you hit on two or all three – other owners will come to you offering the world for the flavor of the month that gets hot. Pick one. Move on. Stockpile.

The Third Demandment

Thou Shalt Not Forget Thy History – In the era of having on-line league-run fantasy operations, it doesn’t matter how many leagues you’re in, few if any are still done by pen and paper. As a result, even if you never kept track of what players other people drafted, you can probably link to somewhere that will tell you. Whether they like to admit it or not, most players have what poker aficionados call “a tell.” Is there someone who has a track record of being the guy who takes players from the local team? Is there someone who insists on getting a couple of wide receivers? Is there someone who overloads on running backs early regardless of what quality players are still available at other positions? If you were to look at your own history, you would probably learn something. You probably end up with many of the same players one year to the next or, on the converse, if you had someone that scorched, in the know owners would know there’s no chance in hell you will ever take that player again. If you’ve been in a league for more than a couple of years, you likely have access to the drafts of previous years – every league has a geek that keeps that information and, if you’re that person, good for you. You’re legwork is done.

The Fourth Demandment

Thou Shalt Impart Love To All His Brothers – At times, there is a propensity to rank players of relatively equal value higher than others. For that reason, there are fantasy players that will double and triple up on players from the same team. While there are exceptions to the rule, the only allowable combo for an owner to take is a quarterback and a receiver from the same team as players you anticipate being regular starters. There are very few instances in which taking a quarterback/running back combo or a running back/wide receiver-tight end combo makes sense. They rarely score points at the same at the time and, in the event that team has a bad day, you’re entire team has dug a hole it can’t get out of. Diversity has merit. While certain pile-on games seem easy enough to jump on, putting too many eggs in one basket puts a gun to your head. Having a QB/RB combo from a team that gets involved in a field goal battle is akin to suicide. Pay heed to this Demandment. If you don’t, you’ll remember every time it burns you.

The Fifth Demandment

Thou Shalt Cast Out the NFC North – God loves all his children, but the NFC North has become the ugly stepchild of the NFL. If you take a serious look around the division, the most attractive player is Bears kicker Robbie Gould – and you should better than to ever take kickers before the last round (or two rounds if your league requires a deuce). How soon will you take Cedric Benson? Is Brett Favre a legitimate No. 1 fantasy QB? Didn’t you used to be Chester Taylor? How many running backs do the Lions have now that will try to eat off the same bone? The first two players (perhaps other than Donald Driver or Roy Williams) from this division that will likely be drafted are rookies – Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson. How pathetic does that make this division? The division has the heat of a month-old dog turd. Avoid them all. The are Gomorrah. Let them be.
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Epilogue

As is expected, you aren’t required to follow all the Demandments. You can be a good person and covet your neighbor’s wife. But, in the end, you may feel bad for not obeying all Ten Commandments. The Demandments won’t send you to eternal fire and brimstone for picking and choosing which ones you obey, put follow them all and God told me he’ll see you in the promised land – or at least at the trophy presentation ceremony.