QB
Rankings Analysis
by
Michael Nazarek/John Holler
Note:
Fantasy Points calculated using a standard Performance scoring
system where Pass TD = 3 points, Rush/Rec TD = 6 points, 20 Pass
Yards = 1 point, 10 Rush/Rec Yards = 1 point, and there are no
negative points for interceptions or fumbles. The rankings are
divided into Tiers, which are groups of players ranked closely
together.
Tiering
Analysis: ...Tier #3 contains solid fantasy producers with top
5 potential. But they are a clear step down from the top 6. I
like QB Jon Kitna here for his fantasy sleeper potential with
his solid WRs corps, one that added highly touted rookie WR Calvin
Johnson to it. QB Brett Favre is the safest, and likely cheapest
fantasy option in this tier, but also throws many picks. QB Michael
Vick can produce top 5 numbers, but his dig fighting legal issues
could ultimately lead to a suspension.
THE
MASTERMIND'S BEST BET: Found exclusively in the Guide.
3RD
TIER (TOP 6 POTENTIAL)
7) Jon Kitna, Det
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
4000
21
80
0
19
271
Kitna has never been regarded as a great NFL quarterback, but,
when given an opportunity, he has taken to it and made the most
of it. Viewed as a has-been when he was acquired by the Bengals
in 2001, his job was to hold down the fort until Carson Palmer
was ready to take over as the starting QB. While he had topped
20 touchdowns just twice in his first nine NFL seasons, he was
a nice fit with the Mike Martz offense installed in Detroit last
season with the change in coaching staff. While Kitna’s
penchant for interceptions remained – he had one more pick
(22) than touchdown pass (21), he gave the Lions a scoring threat
Joe Harrington never did. Embracing the new offense with Roy Williams
and Mike Furrey as his top receivers, Kitna threw almost 600 passes
and threw for 4,208 yards – both career highs. The addition
of explosive rookie Calvin Johnson can only help boost those numbers,
so expect to see Kitna going much earlier than some owners will
be expecting this year. With the number of weapons he will have
around him and an offense designed to put fantasy yardage and
point numbers on the board, Kitna could be the biggest sleeper
of this year’s QB crop. STAT FACT: In 10
years in the league, Kitna has had as many or more interceptions
that touchdowns in seven of those.
8) Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
3600
24
110
1
16
269
Hasselbeck has always been viewed as a quarterback on the verge
of having a huge MVP-type season, but the combination of injuries
and rarely getting touchdowns when the offense gets inside the
5-yard line – the domain of Shaun Alexander in most instances
– he has been a solid, but unspectacular quarterback in
terms of putting up eye-popping numbers. He has seen his supporting
cast undergo a lot of change – Koren Robinson and Darrell
Jackson have both been allowed to leave over the last two seasons
– and while Deion Branch can be viewed by many as a being
a legitimate No. 1 receiver, Nate Burleson has been a huge disappointment
and Jerramy Stevens was all but run out of town. Hasselbeck missed
four games with a knee injury and his numbers showed it –
his 2,442 yards and 18 touchdowns were the lowest of his career
since becoming a full-time starter. While he may never be the
type of quarterback who routinely throws for 28-35 touchdowns
in a season, he can be counted on for 20-25 every year and decent
yardage, making him a safe fantasy pick for an owner who holds
off on taking a quarterback until later in the draft. He’s
a lunch-pail fantasy QB that will give an honest day’s work.
He won’t be the kind of player who sets a league on fire,
but he will consistently provide you with points – which
is what fantasy owners look for at this point of the draft. STAT
FACT: Hasselbeck was boom or bust last season when it came to
touchdown passes. He had three of more TDs in four of his 12 starts,
but in his other eight games, he had one TD or none in each of
them.
9) Vince Young, Ten
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
2700
14
600
5
15
267
Young was viewed by many as a risky pick despite being taken so
high in the draft. It was a given that he would get his chance
to play, but it wasn’t a given when that would be or how
well he would perform as a rookie. All he did was make it to the
Pro Bowl after starting 13 games, but that may have been more
the result of the late-season charge the Titans made after an
awful start than Young taking over games. He completed barely
over 50 percent of his passes and had one of the worst passer
ratings in the league at 66.7. He wasn’t dominant, but the
things he did well, he did very well – especially in leagues
where TD passes count for three points and rushing touchdowns
count for six. In simply the scoring realm of things, Young’s
12 TD passes and seven TD runs were the equivalent on a non-rushing
quarterback throwing 26 touchdowns in 13 starts under the three-point
TD scoring system. With a year of experience, many believe Young
will be much more prepared to read defenses and make big plays,
but the Titans have seen their top receivers go away rather than
coming in – losing Derrick Mason and Drew Bennett over the
last two years. If Young is going to be successful, he’s
going to need his unheralded receiver corps to really step up,
because while at times it looks like he can beat an opponent single-handed,
he will need help. STAT FACT: In the 14 games in which Young saw
meaningful action, he had just one game in which didn’t
have a TD pass or run.
10) Matt Leinart, Arz
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
3700
23
60
1
19
266
Dennis Green had said prior to the 2006 season that if he had
his way, Leinart wouldn’t play a single down in his rookie
season – much in the same way Green let Daunte Culpepper
sit in his rookie season when he was head coach in Minnesota.
But, ineffective play and injuries to Kurt Warner brought that
notion to a stop a month into the season. Leinart ended up starting
the final 11 games of the season and, while his touchdown numbers
weren’t that impressive – 11 TDs in 11 games –
it was the starting point for what many fantasy insiders believe
will be a big 2007 season and a career that will include a few
trips to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl. With offensive talent around
him that includes Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan
Boldin, Leinart has the weapons to make some big strides quickly.
His receiver tandem is one of the most dangerous in the league
and once he gets on the same page as they are, all three could
be fantasy studs for years to come. It’s hard to put too
much upside on Leinart in his second season, but there are plenty
of reasons for fantasy owners to believe that they have a superstar
in waiting on their hands and he has earned the status to be a
fantasy starter in most leagues this season. STAT FACT: In Leinart’s
first two starts of 2006, he had two touchdown passes in both
games. In his final nine starts of the season, he had two touchdowns
in just one game.
11) Brett Favre, GB
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
3900
22
30
0
20
264
Favre is the consummate ironman of the NFL, having made 237 consecutive
starts and even in his old age, he can still put up some gaudy
numbers. Over the last three seasons, when many fantasy owners
had already given up on him, Favre threw for 11,854 yards –
his best three-year total since 1998-2000. However, what has been
viewed by fantasy owners as a more troubling stat, especially
in leagues that give more weight to touchdowns, is that his TD
total over that same span of the last three years has been 30,
20 and 18 touchdowns – the last two seasons being his lowest
totals since 1995 and his 2006 total tying his career low set
in his first season with the Packers when he started just 13 games.
While Favre still has the ability to make big plays and throw
for a lot of yardage, his touchdown total has been in decline
for the last few years (32-30-20-18) and his frustration with
the organization not giving up a fourth-round draft pick to get
Randy Moss shows that the team hasn’t made its best effort
to put talent around him. Favre will never be the player who routinely
threw 30+ touchdowns – in a 10-year span from 1995-2004
he did it seven times – but his legendary ability to play
every week makes him a safe selection for owners who opt to let
the quarterback position slide and, if teamed with another quarterback
whose schedule is a nice complement to his own, Favre could be
a solid mid-round selection who won’t set the world on fire,
but will give fantasy owners a consistent effort and less to worry
about on the injury front. His streak has to come to an end at
some point, but many of his critics have been saying that for
the last five years and haven’t seen it yet. STAT FACT:
In his last 26 starts, Favre has one touchdown or no touchdowns
in 20 of those games.
12) Philip Rivers, SD
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
3600
24
80
0
11
260
For two years, the Chargers let Rivers sit behind Drew Brees and
learn the game, knowing his opportunity would arrive. When Brees
became too expensive to keep and the belief being that Rivers
was ready to go, he was finally handed the reigns of the franchise
last year. While overshadowed by the MVP performance of LaDainian
Tomlinson, Rivers still managed to throw for 3,388 yards and 22
touchdowns while throwing just nine interceptions. While his numbers
weren’t spectacular, they were very solid and, because the
Chargers were so successful as a team, he was selected to go to
the Pro Bowl. He completed almost 62 percent of his passes and
managed the game very well. With the new regime with Norv Turner
now in place, the workload Tomlinson is asked to shoulder may
be reduced somewhat, giving Rivers more of a chance to make plays
downfield. He didn’t have a big play wide receiver at his
disposal, but still managed to throw 41 passes that went for 20
yards or more. While he hasn’t earned a spot as a lead-pipe
fantasy starter lock, he has shown the ability to be a be a solid
quarterback (his 92.0 passer rating was among the best in the
league) and proved that the Chargers willingness to trade a disgruntled
Eli Manning on Draft Day 2004 was the right decision. STAT FACT:
Despite having a rather non-descript receiver corps, Rivers had
only three games last year without a touchdown and eight games
in which he had two or more TD passes.
13) Michael Vick, Atl
Yards Pass TD Passes
Yards Rush TD Rushes
Interceptions Fantasy Pts
2300
16
750
3
14
256
Vick has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of all
time – or at least depending on your scoring method. Coming
into last season, while he was dangerous as runner, the facts
were much more clear – he had made 51 career starts and
thrown 51 touchdown passes. While his 19 rushing TDs added to
that total, unless rushing yardage for quarterbacks was enormous,
Vick was a week-to-week liability that couldn’t be counted
on for consistent production. He has never thrown for more than
3,000 yards in a season and his 2,474 yards (155 yards a game)
in 2006 represented the second-highest total of his career. However,
his 1,000 yards rushing and career-high 20 touchdown passes last
year, has owners once again toying with the idea that Vick could
again be a sleeper QB choice who can make the next move upward
on fantasy boards. However, until he gets his mess with the dog
fighting scandal cleared up, it’s impossible for us to rate
Vick any higher than we have him now. He’s likely facing
a suspension – anywhere from one to eight games could be
possible – so his value has to be diminished. If you get
Vick at this position, you’re likely going to get a value
pick. But odds are if you follow our rankings, Vick will likely
be gone by this point unless he’s facing a four-game suspension
or more. STAT FACT: You can expect big yardage days on the ground,
but not through the air from Vick. In his last 51 starts, he has
just one 300-yard passing game.
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