If you read my first article regarding this topic, you will remember how I stated that this is not an exact science. In the first week of the regular season, you don’t know exactly what you are going to get out of the players. Preseason games will only tell you so much against vanilla defenses, so you are still going to be left out in the cold until the first games are played to have a better feel for what is happening in the NFL, and how the players you drafted could fare for the season.

Week 2 is even more interesting…people overreact to the first game, and it is reflected as such in the Vegas Odds, as well as fantasy GMs who believe that Plaxico Burress will be unstoppable every week, or that Reggie Bush is going to fail miserably and experience the dreaded “sophomore slump.” Contributing even more to the need to downplay these feelings is injuries (and some harsh ones at that).

So now is the time to keep your head and not over-dramatize the happenings of Week 1, and we can use the lines that Vegas has provided to help us find some value when it comes to trying to figure out who that third WR should be or which guy to use as your Flex player. Plus, we will investigate which games have too much invested in an injured player and which ones have not adjusted enough.

Carolina by 6 ½ vs. Houston, Total: 38

Perhaps Rams CB Tye Hill learned his lesson never to talk trash to Panthers WR Steve Smith and that the Houston defense took note of this. Carolina’s offense had a relatively easy time taking care of business and the defense knocked OT Orlando Pace out for the season. The Texans, meanwhile, did nothing special to beat the chiefs convincingly although the defense looked good and QB Matt Schaub looked at least competent.

This week, we are looking at an average scoring game, something on the order of 23-16 or thereabouts. Both defenses could be forcing some stalled drives, and therefore the kickers should have decent opportunities. I also expect lots of yards, with only a few TDs being scored between the two teams.

Cincinnati by 6 ½ at Cleveland, Total: 42

The Bengals are coming off of a huge emotional victory on Monday against the Ravens, where the defense forces six turnovers. Cleveland, on the other hand, is a mess, getting crushed by the Steelers at home and reports are that the Browns are going to start QB Derek Anderson on Sunday.

In most instances, I would look for the Browns to bounce back and play this game closer than the 6 ½ points they are getting at home, especially considering a potential letdown is possible by the Bengals. However, my preseason feeling of the Browns was confirmed that they may not be able to cope with good teams. Until Cleveland shows they can do something, I would sit my Browns players and would look for the Bengals to continue rolling.

Indianapolis by 7 ½ at Tennessee, Total: 46 ½

Another big road favorite on the board, the Colts dominated the Saints on NBC last Thursday and now has 10 days to prepare for a team that is starting to give them headaches again. Also, the Titans running game exploded for 282 yards against a supposedly tough Jaguars front seven, but what about the Colts defense?

If Indianapolis was really that good defensively, this total would not be sitting at 46 ½. Now, I do realize that Indy could post 50+ on the Titans themselves, but QB Vince Young seems to cause enough matchup problems for the Colts D, where Tennessee can keep the game closer and score some points of their own.

Last year, Young had 163 yd, 2TD and 78 yd rushing. If you have no better options, you can find some good value with Young and RB Chris Brown (who was not part of the 220-yard rushing performance in last year’s 20-17 victory in December).

New Orleans by 3 at Tampa Bay, Total: 42

The Saints were embarrassed by the Colts on National TV and now have a great opportunity to bounce back against a beat-up division foe. The fact of the matter is that New Orleans is a good team in an inferior conference, while the Colts are a good team in the superior conference.

Tampa had a difficult time moving the ball against an undersized, but fast Seattle defense after going up 6-0 early. A key play here that essentially ended the game was RB Maurice Morris running down the sideline against aging LB Derrick Brooks and catching a TD pass. How is Brooks going to deal with RB Reggie Bush then? Also, injuries to QB Jeff Garcia and RB Cadillac Williams help the cause for New Orleans, too.

Start your Saints, and don’t worry about last week…they are still a 3-point road favorite against the Bucs, which should tell you the Bucs are bad or the Saints are still good. Either way, you benefit!

St. Louis by 3 vs. San Francisco, Total: 45

So the Rams lose their All-Pro left tackle, RB Steven Jackson fumbles twice, and they are 3-point favorites against the 49ers? Well, QB Marc Bulger has dealt with injuries on the offensive line before (i.e. the last 8 games of 2006) to have big games since the scheme requires quick decisions, so as long as he bounce back from a rough game vs. Carolina, he will be fine. Jackson, who is extremely competitive, should bounce back as well.

The 49ers did not look good on offense Monday night against Arizona, but the total posted believes we are going to see a lot of touchdowns; a 24-21 score is certainly more than reasonable here. Also, the St. Louis “D” ought to help the Niners get on track offensively but be careful since San Francisco is coming off of a short week.

Pittsburgh by 9 ½ vs. Buffalo, Total: 37 ½

This is a series where Pittsburgh has covered the last seven meetings, but with the Steelers coming off of a “too easy” win over Cleveland and Back Seven on defense that can be exposed, Buffalo has a chance to make this game much closer than the line says. Factor in the emotion that the Bills will be carrying into the game after TE Kevin Everett’s horrific injury, followed by the news that he has a great chance of walking again. This is one of those “X-Factors” that causes teams to play above their heads.

Also, for a team considered to be weak defensively, Buffalo certainly made some big stops against Denver; the Bills led for the entire game until 0:01 left in the game. So with the total posted at 37 ½, perhaps the Bills defensive performance was not a fluke after all.

In any case, with QB J.P. Losman’s inconsistency, I would not be surprised if he turned in a big performance, which in turn would boost WR Lee Evans’ value, after the weak game against Denver.

N.Y. Giants EVEN vs. Green Bay, Total: 38

If Eli Manning was lining up under center, the Giants would be giving three; with Jared Lorenzen, it is what is. When RB Brandon Jacobs left with an injury against Dallas, the running game was still fine with potential Waiver-Wire Wonder Derrick Ward filling in.

However, be careful with your expectations of the Giants offense, because the Green Bay defense is plain nasty. The have eight guys that rotate on the defensive line that are all effective in their own ways; look at Donovan McNabb’s numbers from last week’s game when you get a chance. The linebackers are all over the ball and the secondary can cover and play aggressively.

As much as it hurts to say, I do not like the Giants’ prospects when they are hurting in key areas. An inexperienced QB like Lorenzen is going to have a difficult time and on the flip-side, Brett Favre will not have to do much against a depleted Giant defense. This could be tough to swallow for my hometown team.

Jacksonville -10 ½ vs. Atlanta, Total: 34 ½

A few points will sum this one up nicely:
1. Jacksonville is a bad team if they give up another 282-yard rushing game like they did against the Titans; they will make Joey Harrington throw.
2. I don’t see them dropping two in a row at home.
3. The Jaguars are coming off of a very flat emotional effort and should be geared up for this one.

It could really ugly for the Falcons, but I don’t think they are as bad as last week’s score indicated. If you have better options, go elsewhere for someone to plug into your lineup since the final score could be something like: 16-3, Jags.

Baltimore vs. N.Y. Jets; No Line

This is a total mess. QB Steve McNair is turnover-prone and injured. Chad Pennington is in the same shape and this is why we don’t have a line posted at this time. If Kyle Boller and Kellen Clemens are starting at QB this week, your only good bets are each team’s defense given the composure issues that each of these guys have.

Detroit by 3 vs. Minnesota; Total: 42 ½

This is a total that seems high, considering the Vikings are weak at QB and looked really good defensively last week. However, Detroit’s passing game matches up favorably against the Vikings and when Detroit throws on most downs, the clock stops more often, more plays are run, and therefore you can look for more scoring than you might expect. The only player I have reservations on from Detroit in this game is RB Tatum Bell, only because of the Minnesota run defense.

Dallas by 3 ½ at Miami, Total: 41

So we have a matchup of a really good offense (Dallas) at a team who likes to play ugly (Miami). Considering how shaky the Cowboy defense looked on Sunday night against the Giants, Miami could get their offense moving, while their defense keeps the game closer than you might believe. From a wagering standpoint, I usually like to go against a team that won and covered a National TV game against a division opponent. When that team plays a non-conference opponent the following week, they can fall into a letdown situation. I like the Dolphins offensive players to do well this week, because of this.

Seattle by 2 ½ at Arizona, Total: 42 ½

So as bad as Arizona looked on offense on Monday night, and as easy of a win that Seattle had against Tampa, why is this line only 2 ½? The money coming in has been on the Seahawks, but the odds have not moved up to the key number of 3. Those oddsmakers must believe that the Cardinals are going to win this game and do it with offense, going by the 42 ½ total on the board. The fact is that the Cardinal offense is too talented (especially the receivers) to be held in check two weeks in a row.

While RB Shaun Alexander and QB Matt Hasselbeck should get their numbers, don’t be surprised to see the Cardinal skill positions have a big day.

Denver by 9 ½ vs. Oakland, Total: 38 ½

If the Broncos were at home last week, this likely would have been the line, maybe a point less. In any case, Denver needs to turn all of those yards they gained into touchdowns, not field goals. Oakland meanwhile showed some competence on offense, but did that at home against a weak defense. The Raiders now face a superior team and with Daunte Culpepper expected to start, I can see Denver using its speed to force turnovers, create short fields, and score TDs.

Chicago by 12 vs. Kansas City, Total: 34 ½

This one could be hideous. As bad as Rex Grossman looked against the Chargers, he can look good against sub-par defenses like Kansas City. If Houston could score 20 without making much of an effort, imagine what the Bears can do in their home opener. Cedric Benson should be given every opportunity to return to form after his ordinary outing at San Diego.

And if you are looking for Larry Johnson to get rolling, you are going to have to wait on that. The Bears defense is still going to be tough, despite losing SS Mike Brown and DL Dusty Dvoracek. If the Bears score a defensive or special teams TD, the total will play over and get really out of hand. If not, then we can probably look at a score like 27-7, Bears.

New England by 3 vs. San Diego, Total: 47

This Sunday Night special should be an amazing game between possibly the two best teams in the NFL. As dominant as their defenses looked, check out the total! The oddsmakers are expecting a high score despite the strong defensive outputs from last week. And can you blame them? LaDainian Tomlinson, Laurence Maroney, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Randy Moss, Antonio Gates…unbelievable! It is hard to not get excited from a fantasy standpoint. I think there is a great opportunity to start all players you own in this game.

This will be the second consecutive high-emotion game for the Chargers, but in the end I lean toward the Patriots coach (who has never cheated before, ever). 38-34 seems like a reasonable score to me…

Philadelphia by 7 vs. Washington, Total: 39

The Eagles just looked out of place last week against the Packers, where special teams errors ultimately doomed the team, but QB Donovan McNabb looked awfully shaky. The Redskins won their game against the Dolphins in expectedly boring fashion. Philadelphia has a knack for doing well on Monday night games and the fact the Eagles are coming off of a loss helps the cause as well. Although I do not see any overwhelming value on the board, I would look for the Eagles passing game to be better than it was.

I have no aversion to hate mail! Feel free to contact me with your objections at: tambrosini77@yahoo.com. You can also use the same address for any positive comments, too!

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