I have great interest in so many aspects of the NFL; call it a sickness if you want. Draft Day is coming up, which is great for seeing which young talent (or future bust) your favorite team will be adding. Free Agent signing throughout the off-season is good, too, since you can stay on top of player movements and how those roster changes impact the league. But there are two items in particular that I look forward to talking about:

* Fantasy Football
* Handicapping

These items relate to one another. Think about it. You are looking for some kind of payoff at the end of the season (monetarily or just for the pride of being better than your buddies). To be successful, both involve plenty of research and data compilation. In addition, you need to have a little luck on your side, which is the byproduct of doing your homework.

Explaining the Vegas Odds:
I also believe you can use the Vegas Odds as a supplement to your fantasy football team management throughout the season. It seems crazy, but let me explain my insanity to you all.

First things first, let me explain the “line” with an example from a Week 4 game from 2006. If you already know the basics, feel free to skip to the next section.

FAVORITE     OPEN CUR  UNDERDOG      O/U
CINCINNATI    6      5 ½  New England    46

Key:
The home team is shown in CAPS
FAVORITE – The team the odds-makers favor to win the game
UNDERDOG – The team the odds-makers do not favor to win the game
OPEN – The point-spread; the initial margin the FAVORITE is required to win by in order to win your wager
CUR – The point-spread; the current margin the favorite is required to win by in order to win your wager. This number changes due to heavier wagering on one side versus the other, or due to new information about a star player in the game.
O/U – a.k.a. OVER/UNDER, this is the expected point total scored in the game between both teams.

The folks who come up with these numbers work for the Las Vegas Sports Consultants and work tirelessly to come up with numbers where they can equally divide public opinion and receive action on both sides. In this case, a split on people taking Cincinnati giving 5 ½ points and New England getting 5 ½ points. Also, they want to see a split on those who think the final score of the game will total above 46 points and below 46 points.

Why is the line set like this?
The perception is that initially, when Vegas released their odds, Cincinnati is 6 points better than New England. The line moved to 5 ½ once bettors began wagering more on the New England side. This is a significant margin due to several factors:

1. Cincinnati is 3-0 at this point.
2. Cincinnati won those games decisively, covering the point-spread every week.
3. Cincinnati was touted as a potential AFC Champion to start the year.
4. New England has looked sluggish to start the year, even though they are 2-1.
5. New England was shut down by Denver the previous week on NBC Sunday Night.
6. New England is 1-2 against the spread.

Vegas odds-makers need to account for public perception of each team, so they feel they can receive action on both teams. The reasons listed above are the impressions that you and I get of the respective teams to start the year.

The total is set at 46 due to the Bengals offense having the ability to score lots of points, but also because Cincinnati’s defense is not spectacular either.

So, the average football fan might think the score of the game could be something along the lines of 27-20 Bengals. There could be plenty of scoring, which is what we are looking for from a fantasy football perspective.

But, let’s investigate this a little further...

Perception vs. Reality
In the world of sports betting, those who do their homework realize that a team can not be on fire all season long. There has to be a drop-off in performance somewhere along the way. With the league designed to make every team 8-8, you have to expect teams to come back to Earth after a good run, especially when it comes to cover the points.

From the Fantasy Football perspective, I would look at this game as a great opportunity to start your Patriot players. So, if you had guys like RB Corey Dillon, TE Ben Watson, or even WRs Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel, you may want to try them in place of some other questionable players on your squad.

I would also still recommend starting your Bengal players simply because those guys are all just too good to bench when they are healthy. At the same time, go in with the expectation that the hot streak could end.

We should also remember that the second you leave the Patriots for dead, they get angry and explode. It just happens. Also, Cincinnati was coming off of a huge emotional win at Pittsburgh, so a let-down is very possible.

So, what DID happen in the game...?

Aftermath:
Well, New England responded like I though they would, but I did not expect the vulgar display of power! New England annihilated Cincinnati 38-13 and if you had a decision to make between RB Jamal Lewis (15-34 vs. San Diego) and RB Laurence Maroney (15-125, 2 TD), hopefully you went with the latter.

Here were your top performers for the game, regardless of position:
1. Maroney (125 rush yd, 2 TD; 1 rec, 15 yd)
2. QB Tom Brady (188 pass yd, 2 TD/INT; 21 rush yd)
3. RB Rudi Johnson (65 rush yd, TD; 3 rec, 26 yd)
4. Dillon (67 rush yd, TD)
5. Gabriel (4 rec, 57 yd, TD)
6. QB Carson Palmer (245 pass yd, 2 fum)
7. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4 rec, 95 yd)
8. TE Daniel Graham (3 rec, 34 yd, TD)
9. WR Chad Johnson (6 rec, 64 yd)

Four of the top five fantasy performances came from New England if you use a scoring system that counts 1pt/10yd rushing/receiving, 1pt/20yd passing, 4pt/TD pass, and 6pt/any other TD! There was plenty of scoring between both teams, as the O/U was telling us, but it ended up being awfully one-sided.

Cincinnati will be licking their wounds heading into the bye week. New England got their swagger back after dominating a good team in their building and return home to face division rival Miami.

I am certainly not saying it is a fool-proof way to go, but at least it is a way to perhaps identify a potential up-tick in a team’s performance, which in turn, could help you find a good sleeper starter for the week.

Let us go through another game that may have been overlooked last season (from Week 7) and keep the same thought process as we did for the New England-Cincinnati game:

FAVORITE          OPEN   CUR    UNDERDOG     O/U
JACKSONVILLE    9 ½    9 ½     Houston        40 ½

Why is the line set like this?
Jacksonville had been playing some very good football for a while. Although they struggled on the road, they lost to the Colts and the Redskins (in OT). At home, the Jaguars were dominant, shutting out defending champion Pittsburgh 9-0 on a Monday night and then totally destroying the Jets 41-0 before heading into their Week 6 bye. Houston, meanwhile, has looked sub-par to this point. They were handily beaten by the Eagles and Redskins at home and looked extremely inept at Dallas in Week 6.

The Vegas odds-makers are also taking into account that he Jaguars have been making the most of their scoring opportunities and that the Texans have been squandering most of theirs. If the Jags offense was struggling, then the line would have likely been reduced to five or six points and the O/U would likely fall below 35.

The general public expects the final score of the game to somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-14 or 24-17, Jacksonville. This is an average scoring game at best.

But, once again, let’s investigate a little further...

Perception vs. Reality
Let’s remember from the previous example that NFL teams can not be on fire all season long. As bad as Houston may seem, they need to break out offensively sometime. Jacksonville has been on cruise control for a few weeks now and may be setting up for a letdown. Again, the league is designed for teams to go 8-8 in the Salary Cap Era, so teams playing well need to come back to earth and teams that struggle eventually have to play better.

If we want to look at some players to take a chance on to start on your fantasy team if you are desperate to fill a slot, perhaps you give QB David Carr, RB Samkon Gado, or WR Eric Moulds a shot for this week. Also, you may want to lower expectations for guys like RB Maurice Jones-Drew, QB Byron Leftwich, and WR Reggie Williams.

So, what DID happen in the game...?

Aftermath:
Jacksonville looked like they never showed up for the game. They lost another road game, but to the lowly Texans 27-7. This would be Byron Leftwich’s last start of the season, as he would be injured and ineffective, giving way to backup QB David Garrard. I thought Houston had a shot at making this a game, but not completely control the game as they did. RB Wali Lundy ended up being ready to go in the game, and subsequently stole the opportunities away from Gado.

If we use the same scoring system as I did in the previous example, then here are the top performers:
1. Carr (224 pass yd, 2 TD; 12 rush yd)
2t. WR Andre Johnson (8 rec. 104 yd, TD)
2t. Lundy (93 rush yd, TD; 4 rec. 15 yd)
4. Jones-Drew (10 rush yd, TD; 7 rec. 58 yd)
5. RB Fred Taylor (84 rush yd, fum; 1 rec. 19 yd)
6. Leftwich (125 pass yd)
7. Gado (27 rush yd, 3 rec. 15 yd)
8. WR Ernest Wilford (2 rec. 26 yd, fum)
9. Moulds (3 rec. 16 yd)

Overall, the game was very weak offensively; once you get past the top five, you see a significant drop-off in performance. I had the wrong RB pegged as the guy who would deliver for the Texans, and Johnson is a hard guy to sit on any occasion. We should also remember that these offenses are far from prolific. I will accept any hate mail from those who started Gado or Moulds, but I would also expect some love for saving you from starting Leftwich or Reggie Williams (who had zero catches)!

What have we learned from all of this?
This is not going to be an exact science, but you can use the Vegas lines to help in evaluating any difficult decisions you have in choosing a bye-week running back, or perhaps that third wide receiver to fill out your starting roster.

We must also remember that there will be only and handful of these situations. I use this method when one of the teams is playing very well, almost over their heads. The other team needs to be playing below expectations. If you happen to be reading the newspaper on some random Thursday during the football season and see the Vegas Odds section giving you one of these situations, you should look to take advantage wherever possible.

I have no aversion to hate mail! Feel free to contact me with your objections at: tambrosini77@yahoo.com. You can also use the same address for any positive comments, too!

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