2007 First Thoughts - AFC/NFC West

7/31/2007
By Michael Nazarek


I bet you thought I'd forgotten about the teams out west, eh? Nope. Just had to put this series on hold for a few extra weeks due to the release of our Pre-Season Draft Guide and our new partnership with the Rants and Raves Network and the Fantasy Football Rants and Raves Podcast. Check it out if you have an extra hour or two. It's well worth the listen! Back to the teams in the west…


AFC WEST


Denver Broncos:
The Broncos came up short again last season, but they did manage to find their new QB of the future in QB Jay Cutler . He took over for an ineffective QB Jake Plummer late last season, and immediately made a fantasy impact by tossing two TD passes in each of his first four games. In the off-season, Plummer was traded to the Bucs, and refuses to report to camp, hinting that he's done for good. QB Patrick Ramsey was signed to back up Cutler. In the running game, RB Tatum Bell pretty much fumbled his way off the team, as he was traded to the Detroit Lions. RB Travis Henry was signed as the new lead back after the Titans stupidly cut him. He got more in a signing bonus from the Broncos than the Titans owed him for the 2007 season (about $8 million). Henry should flourish in the Broncos system, evoking seasons like the ones had by RB Terrell Davis and RB Clinton Portis . Backing up Henry will be RB Mike Bell and RB Cecil Sapp . In the passing game, WR Javon Walker remains the #1 target, while second year WR Brandon Marshall is a nice sleeper pick for fantasy owners as the #2 guy. WR Rod Smith (hip) might not be ready to play by season's start, but it might be a mute point anyway, as the signing of WR Brandon Stokley could mean the end of Smith's career as a Bronco regardless. WR Quincy Morgan and WR David Terrell will provide depth, but not much else. TE Daniel Graham was another big signing by the Broncos in the off-season. He'll share time with TE Stephen Alexander on the field, but TE Tony Scheffler is the true pass-catcher in this group. He's recovering from a broken left foot. If he doesn't have a setback, he could make quite an impact for fantasy owners. PK Jason Elam remains one of the best kickers in the league. He should still see enough scoring chances to keep him a top 10 fantasy producer.


Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs struggled mightily after QB Trent Green took a big shot that knocked him out of action for the first half of last season. As a result, the team re-signed QB Damon Huard to a long-term deal and eventually traded Green to the Dolphins. The hope here is that second-year QB Brodie Croyle can win the starting job in camp this summer. I watched Croyle closely as a Crimson Tide fan and feel he's up the challenge, but that doesn't mean there won't be any speed bumps along the way. In the running game, the Chiefs have a big problem on their hands, as RB Larry Johnson wants a new contract in the range of RB LaDainian Tomlinson's $21 million guarantee plus the 35% growth of the salary cap. In other words, Johnson wants $28 million in guarantees and the Chiefs are offering about $14 million. It doesn't look good now, but things have a way of working themselves out when the time grows short. RB Michael Bennett and rookie RB Kolby Smith are sharing reps while Johnson holds out. RB Priest Holmes made a surprise return to camp, but is on the PUP list. The Chiefs are trying to use Holmes as leverage to get Johnson into camp, but that won't work. And I'd be very surprised to see the 34-year old Holmes play another down in the NFL again. The passing game has been upgraded with the drafting of WR Dwayne Bowe , who should easily push WR Samie Parker to the bench and start opposite inconsistent WR Eddie Kennison . Don't be shocked to see a Croyle-to-Bowe combo work some magic for fantasy owners this season. Of course, TE Tony Gonzalez returns with a new deal that will likely allow him to retire a Chief. Gonzo will help Croyle grow by not only being a reassuring veteran presence, but also a security blanket. Gonzo remains a top 5 fantasy tight end in 2007. PK Lawrence Tynes was traded to the New York Giants, as the Chiefs drafted PK Justin Medlock as their new starter. I believe you know what I think of drafting rookie kickers… STAY AWAY.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders were as bad as a team could be in 2007. As a result, new HC Klane Kiffin was hired and the team drafted QB JaMarcus Russell as their new QB of the future. But that doesn't mean he'll start right away. The Raiders also acquired QB Luke McCown from Detroit in the off-season, and he's leading the way over QB Andrew Walter for the starting job. QB Aaron Brooks was cut many months ago. RB LaMont Jordan had a disappointing injury-filled season, but returns after accepting a pay cut. He'll start while newly signed RB Dominic Rhodes waits out a 4-game suspension for a reckless driving conviction. Rookie RB Michael Bush continues to recover from a broken leg, while RB Justin Fargas will provide a change of pace. WR Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on draft day, but WR Jerry Porter returns to the team after an attitude adjustment. WR Ronald Curry should start opposite Porter, while WR Alvis Whitted and WR Travis Taylor provide depth. Curry is a nice sleeper pick on this team provided he can stay healthy. TE Courtney Anderson was recently cut loose, leaving rookie TE Zach Miller as the new starter with TE Randal Williams providing depth. Miller is my DS for fantasy owners (subscriber code). PK Sebastian Janikowski returns, but his inconsistent kicking and the lack of scoring chances make him a big fantasy risk.


San Diego Chargers: The Chargers looked like a Super Bowl team until the Patriots wrecked their season in the playoffs. As a result, new HC Norv Turner takes over, but it's the status quo for much of the team, as San Diego didn't sign one impact free agent this off-season. QB Philip Rivers developed quickly into a solid fantasy spot starter last year, and could emerge into a more reliable fantasy starter with a full season of work under his belt. QB Billy Volek returns to back up Rivers. All-Everything fantasy STUD RB LaDainian Tomlinson broke the scoring record last year and is the consensus #1 overall fantasy pick this summer. After a long period of flirting, RB Michael Turner signed his restricted free agent tender and returns to the Chargers to back up Tomlinson. If you draft L.T., you best also take Turner as a handcuff. WR Keenan McCardell failed to score last year and was released. Second-year WR Vincent Jackson is expected to pick up his game and emerge as the team's #1 WR after scoring six times last year when just catching 27 passes. The #2 WR slot is wide open, as WR Eric Parker , rookie WR Craig Davis , and WR Malcom Floyd fight for playing time. Truth be told, after L.T., TE Antonio Gates , and Jackson, there likely won't be many more scores to spread around. Gates returns as the leagues #1 fantasy TE. He began slowly last year, but hooked up nicely with Rivers down the stretch to become THE FORCE at the tight end position once again. TE Brandon Manumaleuna returns for depth purposes. PK Nate Kaeding has become a very consistent kicker on a high-scoring team, making him a top 5 fantasy kicker.

NFC WEST


Arizona Cardinals:
Once again in 2006, the Cardinals were a loser. As a result, new HC Ken Whisenhunt takes over and there is real optimism this perennial loser can finally turn things around. QB Matt Leinart emerged as the starter last year, and is primed to produce solid fantasy starter numbers. QB Kurt Warner returns as the backup this year. RB Edgerrin James is determined to rebound from one of his worst seasons as a pro despite the fact he still rushed for 1159 yards. He scored only six times, down from the 14 TDs he last scored as a Colt. RB Marcel Shipp and RB J.J. Arrington also return to provide depth and some third down action for the Cardinals. The true fantasy production from this team will come from WR Anquan Boldin and WR Larry Fitzgerald . They should produce as one of the better 1-2 fantasy tandems on the league if both stay healthy. Once again, WR Bryant Johnson returns to fill the #3 WR slot. WR LeRon McCoy and WR Sean Morey will provide depth at the position. TE Adam Bergen left via free agency and signed with Dallas, leaving TE Leonard Pope to assume the starting position, but the Cardinals aren't known to use their TE much in the passing game. PK Neil Rackers should produce enough points to be a solid top 10 fantasy kicker in 2007.

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers surprised many last year, and leading that charge was QB Alex Smith, who developed into a decent fantasy backup. He has more potential, but a change of receiving corps will make it tough for him to be considered anything more than a backup for fantasy owners at this time. QB Trent Dilfer returns in 2007 to back up Smith. In the running game, RB Frank Gore emerged as a top 5 fantasy STUD last season, and that production should continue in 2007 despite a recent broken hand suffered in training camp. RB Michael Robinson and RB Maurice Hicks will battle while Gore recovers this summer for the primary backup position. WR Antonio Bryant was released by the team this off-season, as they traded for WR Darrell Jackson, who is still recovering from a turf toe injury. WR Ashley Lelie was also signed by the 49ers, but hasn't done much due to injury as well. Veteran WR Arnaz Battle returns as the likely starter opposite Jackson in 2007. He makes a nice late-round sleeper pick if his health holds up. WR Bryan Gilmore returns for depth purposes. TE Eric Johnson is now a Saint, while second-year TE Vernon Davis is primed for a big season. PK Joe Nedney remains one of the most accurate kickers in the league when healthy, and should see more scoring chances this season, giving him a bit of fantasy value for owners in larger leagues.


Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks followed up a great season with a mediocre one, but still nearly made it back to the big game. QB Matt Hasselbeck returns, but slips out of the top 5 in fantasy terms. WR Darrell Jackson's loss and a healthy RB Shaun Alexander is likely to reduce the team's need to lean heavily on Hasselbeck's arm. QB Seneca Wallace returns to back up Hasselbeck. Alexander is indeed healthy and looking fit and trim. If he slides to the end of the first round of your fantasy draft, grab him and smile! Good things are coming his way in 2007. RB Maurice Morris returns to back up Alexander. With Jackson now a 49er , WR Deion Branch is set to take over his #1 WR role in the offense. WR D.J. Hackett should win the #2 starting job, while WR Bobby Engram returns to work out of the slot. WR Nate Burleson will return kicks and provide depth at wideout. TE Jerramy Stevens wasn't re-signed, as the team went in another direction and added TE Marcus Pollard to the passing game. Pollard makes an intriguing late-round fantasy sleeper choice. TE Will Heller returns for depth purposes. PK Josh Brown was re-signed as the team's franchise player. Yes, he wins games with clutch kicks, but usually doesn't see enough scoring chances to be anything more than a decent fantasy starter for owners who wait very late in their draft to grab a kicker.


St. Louis Rams: The Rams are still looking for that return trip to the playoffs, as the team reloaded for the 2007 season. QB Marc Bulger has just signed a new long-term contract that makes him one of the highest paid QBs in the league. He remains a top 5 fantasy quarterback on a team still loaded at talent offensively. QB Gus Frerotte returns to back up Bulger. RB Steven Jackson had the breakout season I predicted on these pages last summer. Nowadays, he's the #2 overall fantasy choice this summer! Backup RB Tony Fisher wasn't re-signed, as the team signed RB Travis Minor and drafted RB Brian Leonard to provide backup. Look for Leonard to emerge as the primary handcuff to Jackson owners. RB Marshall Faulk at long last finally officially retired. WR Torry Holt and WR Isaac Bruce return as the starters, while WR Kevin Curtis signed with the Eagles in free agency. WR Drew Bennett signed as the #3 WR once it was clear that Curtis was not coming back. WR Shaun McDonald also left via free agency and signed with the Lions. WR Dane Looker returns to provide depth at the position. The fantasy world is hyping Bennett's signing in a big way. I caution you to not overlook a healthy Bruce in this offense. Meanwhile, TE Joe Klopfenstein was set to enter his second season as the starter, that is, until the team signed TE Randy McMichael . Perhaps the Rams will finally begin to look at their TE as a real scoring threat? PK Jeff Wilkins will get a ton of scoring chances this season, and is my #1 ranked fantasy kicker.


That's a wrap on my "First Thoughts"! Be sure to keep an eye on FFMastermind.com in the coming weeks as we'll continue to bring you the very latest NFL news and informative "Eye in the Sky" training camp reports from our NFL team correspondents. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via the contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!


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