2007 First Thoughts - AFC/NFC South

6/28/2007
By Michael Nazarek


July is nearly here, and it's time to take a closer look at the South Division teams to see how things are shaping up...


AFC SOUTH


Houston Texans:
It was the same old story of losing for the Texans in 2006, so they finally made a big move and dumped QB David Carr on the open market, after acquiring QB Matt Schaub in trade from the Atlanta Falcons. Schaub has shown potential, but is inexperienced overall. Still, Carr hadn't shown enough to the Texans' brass to deserve the starting position any longer. QB Sage Rosenfells returns as the backup to Schaub. The Texans' running game was also a mess for most of 2006, so the team cut injured RB Domanick (Davis) Williams and signed RB Ahman Green in free agency to fill the starter's role. RB Ron Dayne had a few productive games late last season, and was retained as the backup and possible goal line back. RB Samkon Gado returns, but could be cut during training camp if he fails to impress, since the team also has youngsters RB Wali Lundy and RB Chris Taylor , along with rookie RB Darius Walker. In the passing game, WR Andre Johnson returns, but WR Eric Moulds was cut loose after a poor season. WR Kevin Walter returns as the penciled in #2 WR, while WR/KR Jerome Mathis continues to have hamstring issues. WR Andre Davis was signed, but his impact is questionable at best. The team is working to sign veteran WR Keenan McCardell, but doesn't want to pay anything more than the veteran minimum for him. The Redskins may give him more and steal him, as his career winds down. TE Jeb Putzier was a big disappointment in the passing game last year, but TE Owen Daniels emerged as a scoring threat, and returns as the starter. TE Mark Bruener is still with the team, filling a reserve/blocking role. PK Kris Brown remains the team's kicker, but has little fantasy value due to lack of scoring chances. Quick Draft Summary: Third-round draft pick WR Jacoby Jones was the only skilled position player drafted in April, but he's a long-shot to make much of a fantasy impact in 2007. The team drafted two offensive linemen, while all other picks were defensive players, an area of huge need for the Texans.


Indianapolis Colts: The Colts finally won it all last season, led by QB Peyton Manning , of course. Manning returns again in 2007, and remains the top choice for fantasy owners at the quarterback position. QB Jim Sorgi returns to hold the clipboard for at least one more season. RB Joseph Addai blended well with RB Dominic Rhodes to team up for one of the more potent tailback tandems in the league last season. Rhodes left via free agency to sign with the Raiders, leaving Addai as the unquestioned starter. The team has been eyeing the possible return of RB James Mungro, but Addai appears set as the new workhorse back. Let's just say RB DeDe Dorsey inspires little in the way of real production as the new backup. The receiving corps seem set with WR Reggie Wayne and WR Marvin Harrison locked to return and the addition of rookie WR Anthony Gonzalez to take over the slot receiver position for WR Brandon Stokley , who was not re-signed. WR Aaron Moorehead was re-signed for depth purposes. TE Dallas Clark returns, along with TE Bryan Fletcher . Clark seems poised to breakout if he can stay healthy. PK Adam Vinatieri was injured for several weeks last season, but recovered in time to help the team win the Super Bowl. He returns as one of the elite fantasy kickers in the league, if his health holds up. Quick Draft Summary: Fifth-round draft pick WR Roy Hall was the only other skilled position player drafted, for depth purposes. Other players drafted included one offensive lineman and six defensive players.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars disappointed in 2006, finishing with a mediocre 8-8 record. QB Byron Leftwich was benched with an ankle injury that lingered for most of the second half of the season. He's healthy and the team is committed to him as the starter once again. QB David Garrard returns as the backup, although the team has expressed interest in signing QB Daunte Culpepper if the Dolphins ever decide to release him. Leftwich is talented, but his injury history makes him a very risky fantasy player. RB Fred Taylor had a fairly productive season, although another injury did strike. RB Maurice Jones-Drew more than filled the void, totaling a whopping 15 TDs while sharing the running duties. In the off-season, the Jags gave Taylor a new deal, which, in effect, keeps the tailback tandem together for the long haul. RB Greg Jones is coming back from a torn ACL injury, and could steal some carries here and there. RB Alvin Pearman and RB LaBrandon Toefield provide depth at the position, but one could be cut before the season begins. The receiving corps is a mess and remains that way. WR Reggie Williams and WR Matt Jones dropped entirely too many passes last year. WR Ernest Wilford was better, but is barely a decent #2 WR, much less a #1. The Jags signed WR Dennis Northcutt in the off-season to beef up the corps. Wow, I'm so excited. The Jags are so desperate for help at wideout that HC Jack Del Rio is pimping unknown WR Charles Sharon as a possible starter. Gone is TE Kyle Brady , while TE George Wrighster and second-year TE Marcedes Lewis return. TE Jermaine Wiggins was signed this off-season, providing a bit of a glut at the position. PK Josh Scobee returns, and was a surprise for fantasy owners last season. If the team continues to struggle to score TDs, he could be productive once again in 2007. Quick Draft Summary: Third-round draft pick WR Mike Walker and 7 th -rounder WR John Broussard will try to add support to a weak receiving group. The majority of the rest of the draft picks were defensive players.


Tennessee Titans: The Titans began the 2006 season like a big loser, but finished with a big run only to miss the playoffs by just one game. QB Vince Young quickly took over for an ineffective QB Kerry Collins , and nearly led the team into the playoffs. Young was the new " Mike Vick " in 2006, running to get the job done as needed. Unfortunately, a weak wideout corps in terms of talent for 2007 could stunt the growth of Young as an NFL QB. Collins returns as the backup to Young this upcoming season. RB Travis Henry was cut after refusing to take a pay cut, and signed with the Broncos. Second-year RB LenDale White was in line to start, but an overweight White was unimpressive during off-season mini-camps, leading the team to re-sign RB Chris Brown . Meanwhile, the team added depth at tailback by drafting RB Chris Henry in April. Odds are good that Brown will nail down the starting job, if his heart is truly in it. The wideout corps is probably the weakest in the league, as both starters from last season left via free agency, WR Drew Bennett (Rams) and WR Bobby Wade (Vikings). The leaves inexperienced WR Brandon Jones and veteran journeyman WR Justin Gage as the likely starters, while WR David Givens is still rehabbing a torn ACL. Givens isn't expected to be ready to play by week #1, making him a PUP list candidate. WR Roydell Williams and WR Courtney Roby are also in the mix at wide receiver. TE Bo Scaife and TE Ben Troupe return in 2007. Don't be shocked if both Scaife and Troupe lead the team in catches. Yes, the receiving corps is that weak. PK Rob Bironas is an adequate kicker on a team that doesn't give him enough scoring chances to be anything more than a fantasy backup for owners in larger leagues. Quick Draft Summary: The Titans drafted three wideouts, but none higher than the third round. The rest of their draft consisted of offensive linemen and defensive players.

NFC SOUTH


Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons sputtered down the stretch, as QB Michael Vick went from hero to zero quite quickly. Although the team fired the head coach and hired (newbie to the NFL) HC Bobby Petrino, they still kept Vick as their starter and traded QB Matt Schaub to the Texans early this off-season. Now, the team is stuck with a possible law-breaking dog-fighting lover in Vick at the helm. Regardless, it's highly unlikely that Vick will be suspended even if he's indicted, as he has no prior record of trouble with the law…. well that's REAL trouble with the law. Anyway, Vick is Vick. He'll produce some stunningly good games, and many other stinkers. Draft him at your own risk. QB Joey Harrington was signed to back up Vick. Yuck. The Falcons have always had one of the best running games in the league, and 2007 shouldn't be much different with veteran RB Warrick Dunn and RB Jerious Norwood sharing the workload. The person who starts might not be decided until well into the preseason, but don't be shocked if Norwood gets the call. FB Justin Griffith wasn't shown the money and left via free agency, as the team signed FB Ovie Mughelli to take his slot. The big move offensively in free agency for the team was the signing of WR Joe Horn , who immediately becomes the #1 WR for the Falcons. However, Horn will have to stay healthy and develop chemistry with Vick to be productive. It's uncertain if both things will occur in 2007. The dropsies twins of WR Michael Jenkins and WR Roddy White return, but WR Ashley Lelie signed with the 49ers in free agency and WR Brian Finneran re-tore his ACL and is lost for the season again. Don't be surprised if veteran TE Alge Crumpler remains the big fantasy producer in this passing game. Vick still loves to target his big guy, and Crumpler usually comes up in a big way, that is, if he fully recovers from off-season knee surgery. PK Morten Andersen wasn't re-signed for 2007, as the team went without a kicker for much of the off-season before signing PK Billy Cundiff . Needless to say I'm not thrilled about this choice of kickers. Quick Draft Summary: Third-round draft pick WR Laurent Robinson might just make a bit of an impact with the corps a bit thin. 4th-rounder TE Martrez Milner was drafted for depth purposes. 7 th -round draft pick FB Jason Snelling will have to impress this summer to make the roster.


Carolina Panthers: The Panthers disappointed their fans and fantasy owners last year with a mediocre 8-8 season and a struggling offense. QB Jake Delhomme was part of the problem. He struggled without WR Steve Smith early and was injured late in the season. Delhomme returns for 2007, but the team signed QB David Carr as insurance in case Delhomme doesn't rebound. RB DeShaun Foster had a decent season, but was fairly unimpressive. Second-year RB DeAngelo Williams showed spark until an injury cost him valuable experience and playing time. Williams has a great chance this summer to steal the starting job away from Foster. RB Nick Goings and RB Eric Shelton return for depth purposes. In the passing game, WR Steve Smith remains the class of the league at his position. Unfortunately, I believe the Panthers made a mistake by cutting WR Keyshawn Johnson before he had a chance to mentor rookie WR Dwayne Jarrett. Without Johnson, Carolina is hoping Jarrett and WR Drew Carter will emerge as serious threats opposite Smith. WR Keary Colbert also returns, but has done practically nothing since his rookie season three years ago. TE Kris Mangum has retired, while TE Mike Seidman wasn't re-signed. TE Michael Gaines will have to step up his play if he's to make a real impact as the team's likely starter. PK John Kasay remains one of the most accurate kickers in the game, and should be a solid fantasy starter in 2007 provided the team gets their offense back on track. Quick Draft Summary: Fourth-round draft pick WR Ryne Robinson has the opportunity to contribute in a receiving corps with uncertain talent and abilities. The same goes for 5 th -round draft pick TE Dante Rosario . The rest of the rookies will contribute to the defense with the exception of 2 nd -rounder C Ryan Kalil .


New Orleans Saints: The Saints had a fairy-tale season in 2006, one that ended just one win shy of the Super Bowl. New QB Drew Brees was the real deal and played like a fantasy champion. He returns as the starter and top 5 fantasy QB for 2007. QB Jamie Martin returns to back up Brees. RB Deuce McAllister and RB Reggie Bush became one of the top fantasy producing tandem RBs of the 2006 season. McAllister is another year removed from his torn ACL injury, while Bush has a full season of experience under his belt. Both players should be productive again in 2007. RB Aaron Stecker returns to provide depth at the position. The big change for the team was the release of veteran WR Joe Horn . Surprise second-year WR Marques Colston becomes the obvious #1 WR, but will have to work hard to produce big numbers now that his secret identity is out of the bag. WR Devery Henderson and WR Terrance Copper return to provide deep threats, while the team drafted WR Robert Meachem to boost the corps. WR David Patten was signed for depth purposes. TE Mark Campbell and TE Billy Miller were spotty at the pass-catching tight end position, which is why the team signed TE Eric Johnson this off-season. If healthy, Johnson could surprise for fantasy owners in 2007. PK John Carney had another solid season, only to see the Saints release him after acquiring PK Olindo Mare from the Dolphins. I don't agree with this move. Mare is younger, but Carney is more accurate. Quick Draft Summary: Fourth-round draft pick RB Antonio Pittman was drafted for depth purposes. The rest of the Saints' draft picks were offensive linemen or defensive players.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs suffered through another losing season, which likely makes 2007 a make or break season for HC Jon Gruden . The team suffered through poor play at the quarterback position, leading Tampa Bay to sign QB Jeff Garcia this off-season. Garcia is the clear starter heading into training camp. Second-year QB Bruce Gradkowski still has a lot to learn, while QB Chris Simms is still recovering from a splenectomy, and has to relearn his throwing mechanics. The Bucs also acquired the rights to QB Jake Plummer from the Broncos, but Plummer has stated he's retired. RB Cadillac Williams suffered through an injury-filled second season himself, but he's rebounded thus far and looked sharp in off-season mini-camps. The Bucs also want to throw to Williams more out of the backfield. Let's just call the Caddy one very interesting fantasy sleeper this summer. RB Michael Pittman returns to offer a change of pace once again. FB Mike Alstott also returns for what is likely his final season in the NFL. The team phased Alstott out of any real meaningful role a while ago, making him pretty much useless as a fantasy player. FB B.J. Askew was signed to help with the lead blocking. WR Joey Galloway had another solid season despite the turmoil at QB. He returns to lead the wideout corps, while WR Michael Clayton again attempts to reclaim the #2 starting job. WR Ike Hilliard also returns to likely remain the #3 slot receiver. The Bucs are high on WR Maurice Stovall, a player that could unseat Clayton for his starting job. WR David Boston also returned this off-season to try and reclaim his NFL career. TE Dave Moore has retired, but TE Alex Smith returns and retains a bit of fantasy sleeper status. PK Matt Bryant made the kick of his life, a 62-yard FG, to win a game last year. Other than that, he was useless for fantasy owners due to lack of scoring chances. Until that changes, he remains a big fantasy risk. Quick Draft Summary: Seventh-round draft pick RB Ken Darby could make an impact as a change of pace or third down back down the road. The rest of the rookies drafted weren't skilled position players.


That does it for the South divisions. Look for my views regarding the teams out West in July. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via the contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!


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