2007 First Thoughts - AFC/NFC East

5/3/2007
By Michael Nazarek


May is here and it’s time once again to take a look at the fantasy potential regarding all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming 2007 season. Free agency is over for the most part, and the NFL Draft recently took place, so teams will be making mostly small moves to tweak their rosters before training camps begin later this summer. Believe it or not, we are less than three months away from the start of those camps. I'm starting to get excited just thinking about it! As in years past, this series of articles will begin in the East and I'll work my way West. Let's get right to it, there's a lot to discuss...

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills: The Bills showed a bit of improvement last season, but still won just seven games. QB J.P. Losman played better, but not well enough to be anything more than a decent fantasy backup. QB Kelly Holcomb was traded to the Eagles this off-season, as the team drafted QB Trent Edwards last month. Losman is the guy for now, but if he doesn't continue to show improvement in his play, Edwards will be given a chance to take over, sooner rather than later. RB Willis McGahee got his wish, and was traded to the Ravens a few months back, while the team re-signed veteran RB Anthony Thomas and drafted RB Marshawn Lynch in April. Look for the Bills to rotated Thomas and Lynch until one steps up his play (obviously the Bills want Lynch to take over). Rookie RB Dwayne Wright was also drafted and RB Shaud Williams was re-signed for depth purposes. WR Lee Evans is clearly still the #1 option in the passing game, with both WR Josh Reed and adding WR Peerless Price filling out the other two primary roles. WR Roscoe Parrish showed flashes of big time play last season, but couldn't stay healthy. If that changes, he could play an important role in this offense. TE Robert Royal made the most impact at the tight end position for the Bills in 2006, and that's not saying much with his three scores and just 23 catches. He returns, but fantasy owners shouldn't expect much from him or any other Bills TE in 2007. PK Rian Lindell is a solid kicker, but the Bills usually slump offensively, which reduces Lindell's fantasy production, often at the worst time, during fantasy playoffs. Quick Draft Summary: Outside of the three rookies mentioned above, the Bills drafted three defensive players, one a linebacker in the 2nd round, which should help offset the loss of LB Takeo Spikes in the trade with the Eagles.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have a new head coach in Cam Cameron, after HC Nick Saban quit to coach at Alabama. Cameron is taking major steps to change key offensive personal, making it tough to read at this time the fantasy impact the team's offense will make in 2007. Gone is QB Joey Harrington. Most likely gone later this summer is QB Daunte Culpepper. That is assuming the team acquires (or signs) QB Trent Green from the Chiefs. The team also has QB Cleo Lemon and drafted QB John Beck last month. If Green is signed and starts, this offense could be much improved, if not, then things don't look so hot in the short-term. RB Ronnie Brown returns as the starter, while RB Ricky Williams waits to see if the NFL will reinstate him. If they do, the Dolphins will have to decide if they want him on their roster, or they could trade him. RB Sammy Morris and RB Travis Minor are gone, leaving rookie RB Lorenzo Booker as a possible backup to Brown if Williams doesn't return. Veteran FB Cory Schelsinger was signed to blast holes for Brown in the running game. WR Chris Chambers returns, but has hardly produced like a true #1 WR for the team in recent years. WR Marty Booker was on the trading block, but wasn't traded. He won't be released, but that's no guarantee he'll be playing for the team come September. WR Wes Welker was traded to the Patriots this off-season, while the team surprisingly drafted WR Ted Ginn Jr. last month with the 9th overall pick. The Dolphins are high on Ginn, but his foot injury may not be healed in time for the start of training camp. WR Kelly Campbell was re-signed and WR Az-zahir Hakim was added to the roster to beef up the corps. WR Derek Hagan also returns to the receiving group. TE Randy McMichael was released, as the Dolphins signed TE David Martin to fill his pass-catching role. If Martin can stay healthy, he could surprise in 2007. But that's a big IF. PK Olindo Mare was traded to the Saints after the team signed PK Jay Feely in free agency. These two kickers are very similar, so it's hard to get excited about Feely when he likely went to a Dolphins offense that is no sure bet to give him more scoring chances than the Giants did in 2006. Quick Draft Summary: With their other picks in April, the Dolphins drafted a fullback, a few offensive linemen, and three defensive players to go along with a punter. They covered nearly all the bases, but if Ginn can't stay healthy and develop quickly and the QB situation isn't resolved, Dolphins fans might have to suffer through another long season of what might have been.

New England Patriots: For the second year in a row, the Patriots didn't win the Super Bowl, but that just made them more determined to make bolder moves in their quest to regain the championship. The one area the team made no changes in is at quarterback, where QB Tom Brady remains the leader of the offense. With a new plethora of receivers in tow, Brady could easily regain his top five fantasy form. QB Matt Cassel returns to back up Brady, but barring injury, he won't see much on-field play. RB Corey Dillon asked for and got his release. He may sign elsewhere or retire, leaving RB Laurence Maroney as the new starter for the Patriots. Maroney is coming off shoulder surgery, but should be ready to go by training camp (or so the Patriots say). RB Kevin Faulk will spell Maroney here and there, but Laurence will get the opportunity to be a top 10 fantasy STUD RB if his health holds up. RB Sammy Morris was signed to back up Maroney, while FB Heath Evans was retained as the lead fullback. The passing game got a huge makeover this off-season, as WR Randy Moss, WR Donte Stallworth, WR Kelley Washington, and WR Wes Welker were acquired to beef up a corps that was sorely lacking in consistent production in 2006. Moss is a top 10 talent, if he comes in with the right attitude. Stallworth could also excel when healthy. Welker is a dangerous return man. And don't forget WR Reche Caldwell developed nicely last season, and WR Troy Brown is expected to be re-signed when healthy later this summer. This unit is so deep, WR Jabar Gaffney, last year's playoff surprise, could find himself on the outside looking in by the end of training camp. Gone is TE Daniel Graham, who signed a big, fat contract with the Broncos in free agency, leaving TE Ben Watson as the lead TE. Veteran TE Kyle Brady was signed for depth, while TE David Thomas also returns. PK Stephen Gostkowski slowly developed into a reliable kicker last season, and could become a top 10 fantasy producer in 2007. Quick Draft Summary: The Patriots chose to fill most of their skilled positional holes via free agency or trades instead of the draft. Rookie RB Justise Hairston was selected in the 6th round, but will be hard pressed to make an impact. The rest of their draft consisted of three offensive linemen, and five defensive players, as the Patriots look to restock a solid defense that's slowly getting older.

New York Jets: The Jets surprised last year before falling to the Patriots in the playoffs. QB Chad Pennington was healthy for all of 2006, which had a lot to do with the team's success. Early in the season, Pennington was a fantasy machine, churning out big numbers, only to fade over most of the last half of the year. He returns, as a solid fantasy backup, while QB Marques Tuiasosopo was signed as a reserve after QB Patrick Ramsey was released. QB Kellen Clemons enters his second season in the league to battle for the backup position. With RB Curtis Martin all but officially retired, the Jets acquired RB Thomas Jones to be their primary ball-carrier this year. RB Kevan Barlow and RB Derrick Blaylock were both released. RB Leon Washington will spell Jones here and there, while RB Cedric Houston officially backs him up. If the running game gels, Jones could break into the top 10 STUD RBs for 2007. In the passing game, WR Laveranues Coles and WR Jerricho Cotchery provide a nice 1-2 punch, while WR Justin McCareins still has value for the team as an outside deep threat. WR Tim Dwight returns, but more often than not, he's injured, or plays primarily in the return game. WR Brad Smith is a wildcard project player, somebody to keep an eye on. TE Chris Baker returns and has talent, but is too inconsistent in his production to be anything more than a fantasy backup. PK Mike Nugent grew to be quite a consistent kicker for the Jets over the 2006 season. If he gets more scoring chances, he could climb into the upper half of the fantasy kickers around the league. Quick Draft Summary: The Jets had only four picks in the 2007 draft after making several trades. They needed help at corner and linebacker, and filled those needs with their first two picks. WR Chansi Stuckey, drafted in the 7th round, will have to work hard to make any kind of impact for the team this year.


NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys lost to the Seahawks in the playoffs last year and HC Bill Parcells retired. New HC Wade Phillips inherits a team with talent, but one with holes and inconsistencies to boot. QB Drew Bledsoe was cut, then retired. QB Tony Romo emerged last year as the new starter. He has talent, but is definitely one of the inconsistencies on the team. Veteran QB Brad Johnson was signed to back up Romo, but the team will give Romo every chance to succeed… or fail. RB Julius Jones was the subject of many trade rumors this off-season, but remains with the team. He and RB Marion Barber will share carries in the backfield once again, but the exact plan for the two might be different than 2006 due to the new coaching staff. In other words, fantasy owners shouldn't expect Barber to get all the golden carries again this year. WR Terrell Owens and WR Terry Glenn return as the starters with WR Patrick Crayton once again filling the #3 WR role. This wideout corps is getting a bit long in the tooth, but the team has confidence these three can get the job done. If T.O. behaves, they just might be right. TE Jason Witten returns as the primary pass-catching TE. His fantasy numbers slipped a bit in 2006, so this could be a redemption season. If not, TE Anthony Fasano might get the chance to show what he can do for the team. PK Martin Gramatica returns and will battle rookie PK Nick Folk for the place-kicking duties later this summer. Most of you know how I feel about rookie place-kickers… UGH. Quick Draft Summary: Fourth-round draft pick QB Isaiah Stanback will be converted to receiver in an effort to boost the team's depth there and in the return game. Sixth-round draft pick FB Deon Anderson will battle for the starting FB job and could make an immediate impact. The other picks were offensive linemen and defensive players, two areas the Cowboys have needs in.

New York Giants: My favorite team began last season on fire, only to fizzle out, barely making the playoffs and losing to the Eagles. For the first real time, doubts are creeping up about whether QB Eli Manning is the true leader and performer the Giants got when they traded for him four years ago. I believe the loss of WR Amani Toomer to a torn ACL at mid-season was a big reason why Manning struggled. A healthy Toomer will go a long way towards Manning regaining his solid fantasy starting form. QB Anthony Wright was signed to back up Manning. Obviously, the loss of a retired RB Tiki Barber will hurt the Giants offense the most. RB Brandon Jacobs will get first crack at replacing him, while RB Rueben Droughns, acquired in trade from the Browns, will step in as needed. This situation could develop into a rotating back system (possibly every other series), but if Jacobs continues to produce in short yardage and goal situations, he'll continue to be the primary fantasy producer. In the passing game, WR Plaxico Burress emerged as the clear #1 WR for the team, making big plays often to win games. He's a solid #1 fantasy WR, while a returning Toomer should help stabilize the receiving corps. Rookie WR Steve Smith was drafted to eventually replace an aging Toomer. WR Tim Carter was traded to the Browns to get Droughns, leaving second-year WR Sinorice Moss to fill the #3 WR job. WR David Tyree and WR Darius Watts round out the group. TE Jeremy Shockey was effective last year when he wasn't playing hurt, but injuries continue to keep him from ultimate fantasy stardom at the tight end position. TE Visanthe Shiancoe signed in free agency with the Vikings, leaving the TE position thin. PK Jay Feely left for a better deal with the Dolphins, leaving a big hole at place-kicker. The Giants plan to have unknown kickers battle for the job later this summer, meaning fantasy owners should avoid this position until (unless) a veteran is signed. Quick Draft Summary: Fifth-round draft pick TE Kevin Boss will help out at the thin tight end position. Most of the rest of the picks were defensive players, an area of big need for a Giants unit that used to dominate.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles rolled early, then struggled, only to rebound to make the playoffs even after a devastating knee injury struck QB Donovan McNabb. Before McNabb went down, he was THE #1 FANTASY QB in the entire league, but he tore his ACL in week #9, ending his season. McNabb is rehabbing hard and expects to be ready later this summer for the season. When healthy, he's clearly a top five fantasy QB. But injuries have always been a big factor in his career. And just last month the Eagles drafted QB Kevin Kolb in the second round, as a possible QB of the future. The Eagles have told McNabb that he's still their starter, but another injury-filled season could mean the end of the McNabb era in Philly. Veteran QB Jeff Garcia led the team into the playoffs and didn't even get a new contract offer. He's now a Buc, while QB A.J. Feeley was re-signed as the veteran backup. QB Kelly Holcomb was acquired via trade, making the QB position quite a crowded one for this team. RB Brian Westbrook had his biggest season last year, even though his knee was basically a week-to-week issue. If his health holds up, he should remain a top 10 fantasy producer. RB Correll Buckhalter re-signed to return as Westbrook's backup. RB Ryan Moats was on the trading block, but now could stick for another season. In the passing game, the team acquired WR Donte Stallworth via trade from the Saints. When he played, he produced good fantasy numbers, but hamstring issues once again limited his effectiveness, and he signed with the Patriots in the off-season. WR Reggie Brown returns as the most productive veteran, while WR Kevin Curtis was signed to start opposite him. Curtis is in a position to surprise if he quickly develops chemistry with McNabb. WR Greg Lewis, WR Bethel Johnson and WR Hank Baskett round out the receiving corps. Baskett has the most potential from this group to break out. TE L.J. Smith continued to develop into a top 10 fantasy threat last season. That should continue this year. PK David Akers has always been one of my favorite fantasy STUD kickers. Coming off a disappointing season due to low scoring chances, Akers should come at quite a bargain in most fantasy drafts later this summer. Quick Draft Summary: Third-round draft pick RB Tony Hunt could give Buckhalter a run for his money at the backup RB position. Fifth-round draft pick TE Brent Celek will provide depth at the tight end position. Four out of the remaining five draft picks were defensive players.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins regressed last season, winning only five games. QB Mark Brunell finally lost his hold on the starting job, giving QB Jason Campbell his chance to produce. And Campbell played well enough to secure the starting job heading into the 2007 season. Brunell restructured and remains the veteran backup for the team. RB Clinton Portis suffered through an injury-filled 2006 season, which ended early. RB Ladell Betts took over and nearly stole the starting job outright. The Redskins say a healthy Portis remains the starter, but look for more of Betts to spell Portis to keep him healthy and fresh. FB Rock Cartwright returns as the lead fullback for the team. WR Santana Moss returns as the #1 WR, while WR Antwaan Randle El and WR Brandon Lloyd will see time on the other side. Lloyd gets one more chance to redeem himself as a Redskin after a horrendous first year in Washington. WR David Patten was released and is now a Saint. TE Chris Cooley returns as one of the most dangerous and underrated fantasy producing pass-catching tight ends in the league today. TE Todd Yoder was re-signed to provide depth at the position. PK John Hall, PK Nick Novak, and PK Shaun Suisham all kicked for the team at one point in 2006. This position is far from settled for the Redskins and should be avoided by fantasy owners until later this summer, if at any time at all. Quick Draft Summary: Due to trades and such, the Redskins only had one pick above the 5th round in April, and they went defense with their first three picks. Sixth-round draft pick QB Jordan Palmer is a project, while seventh-round draft pick TE Tyler Ecker will be lucky to make the team.


That's a wrap for the two Eastern divisions. Be sure to join me over the coming weeks as I offer my First Thoughts on the other six divisions. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!


back to top

 
| Home |
| What's New! |


Questions/Comments:
Fill out Our Questions/Comments Form

© 1996 - 2007 Fantasy Football Mastermind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Do not copy or redistribute in any way without permission.
Our Privacy Policy