In 2004 it was RB-Larry Johnson, KC Chiefs dominance that led championship fantasy teams. In 2005, RB-Shaun Alexander, Seattle took his turn in leading teams to titles. Well, it certainly should have come as no surprise in 2006, that another running would lead teams to fantasy titles. The 2006 NFL MVP, LaDainian Tomlinson was the 2006 fantasy football MVP, leading countless teams to titles. Running back continues to be the most important and unpredictable position in fantasy football. Owners and experts who honestly projected L.T. to score 30+ TDs probably either drafted or acquired the star during 2006 and enjoyed great success. Last season, in order to more accurately project the outlook of the running back position, I added a forth implication to the equation (offensive line). Offensive line is often the most overlooked part of an NFL offense, yet the starting point for many successful offenses. From 2001-2005, I gained a new appreciation for offensive lines, while watching my local and favorite team, the Kansas City Chiefs, destroy defenses. The Chiefs dominate offensive line was largely the foundation of their great offenses year-in and year-out. The 4 Significant Implications of the RB Position (4 S.I.) is still focused firmly on helping you choose the right STUD running back. The purpose of this article is to review the projections made in the summer of 2006. By looking back of 2006, we will gain a greater knowledge and wisdom for 2007.

Summary of the 4 Significant Implications of RB Position

Offensive Efficiency (OEF) (2 to 10 Scale) is made up of 4 different statistical categories, primarily based off a running back’s possible yardage success. In each of the following categories the rank of all NFL teams is projected.
1) Points Per-Game
2) Rushing Yards
3) 1st Downs Rushing
4) Rushing TDs

TD Production (TDP) (2 to 10 Scale) is composed of 4 different statistical categories, largely based around a running back’s touchdown success. In each of the following categories the rank of all NFL teams is projected.
1) Offensive TDs (receiving & rushing)
2) Rushing TDs % of Offensive TDs (not returns)
3) Rushing TDs % of Offensive Scores (not returns, including FGs)
4) Rushes Per-TD

Brief Summary: Both OEF and TDP have four categories, in which every team is given a ranking and corresponding designation and rating. The categories were determined to be the highest correlation based on statistics from 2001-2004.

Injury Likelihood (INJL) (0 to 5 Scale) is another component of the 4 S.I. and through factual evidence determines the likelihood that a running back will be injured. The following five statistical elements form 10 separate areas by which a running back’s INJL is determined.
1) Touches (an RB’s rushes + receptions)
2) Age
3) Size
4) Games missed
5) Years Played
Brief Summary: Every running back is given an INJL rating. This rating is based on 10 distinct statistical categories, their depth cart status, projected touches, and my opinion.

Offensive Line Run Blocking (OLRB) (0 to 5 Scale) is a rating system determined by one basic essential concept (team run production), several concrete facts, all culminating with my mostly objective opinion. This category is the most difficult to rank and apply ratings too. It is very difficult to gather adequate, specific, statistical data on an offensive line’s run production outside the team’s previous results.

Overall 4 S.I. (4 to 30 Scale)
1) OEF (2 to 10 Scale)
2) TDP (2 to 10 Scale)
3) INJL (0 to 5 Scale)
4) OLRB (0 to 5 Scale)
Brief Summary: The 4 Significant Implications of the RB Position is an in-depth study that is a fantastic drafting tool for anyone. While it is not necessarily recommended that you draft running backs purely by the order dictated by the 4 S.I., it is highly recommend you use it as a guide to make adjustments to your own rankings and thoughts. Remember these ratings come by statistical and historical trends. All 4 implications churn our ratings for each running back culminating in every running back receiving a overall 4 S.I. ranking. This ranking is the primary element we will focus on reviewing.

4 S.I. Success Rate
Key Players
Every pre-season analysis that involves the running back position, in the end through all the hype comes down to the top guys; whether it is L.T., L.J., or an injured former MVP Shaun Alexander. Owners spend high draft picks yearly on the running back position, so the accurate projection of their success or lack there of looms large. An empty or really bad first round pick at the running back position can kill a team’s success. LaMont Jordan hurt 2 of my 2006 teams after being one of the biggest busts. Unfortunately, Jordan was not the only early round running back bust in ’06. Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, and Cadillac Williams all were fairly consistent 1st Round selections who really disappointed ’06 owners. I was personally disappointed with several running backs in ’06 and several were key backs.

Hits:
L. Tomlinson SDC: 4 S.I. Rnk #4 & Rat 10.0 06 Fan Rnk #1
L. Johnson KCC: 4 S.I. Rnk #1 & Rat 4.25 06 Fan Rnk #2
S. Jackson STL: 4 S.I. Rnk #3 & Rat 9.75 06 Fan Rnk #3
R. Johnson CIN: 4 S.I. Rnk #6 & Rat 13.50 06 Fan Rnk #8
T. Barber NYG: 4 S.I. Rnk #11 & Rat 19.50 06 Fan Rnk #10

Misses:
S. Alexander SEA: 4 S.I. Rnk #2 & Rat 4.75 06 Fan Rnk #30
C. Portis WAS: 4 S.I. Rnk #7 & Rat 13.50 06 Fan Rnk #32
L. Jordan OAK: 4 S.I. Rnk #5 & Rat 12.75 06 Fan Rnk #55

Starter-Sharing Backs
A running back with a “starter-sharing” status indicates a back that was either in a 2-back system or yet to be named the starter in mid-August. In the last version of the 4 S.I. rankings, 15 running backs were deemed “starter-sharing” backs. Below are some of the hits and misses within this particular running back status. This status has always been very difficult, yet the most intriguing position, to follow throughout the pre-season. Often times, there will be 2-3 running backs from this status that will end up in the top 10 by seasons end. The other side of the coin though there are several who may not even be in the top 40 fantasy running backs. The key in this status is to find and focus on backs whom are in run heavy offenses and/or score often.

Hits:
W. Dunn ATL: 4 S.I. Rnk #19 & Rat 11.50 06 Fan Rnk #24
J. Jones DAL: 4 S.I. Rnk #31 & Rat 20.50 06 Fan Rnk #29
D. Rhodes IND: 4 S.I. Rnk #30 & Rat 20.50 06 Fan Rnk #34

Misses:
W. Parker PIT: 4 S.I. Rnk #21 & Rat 12.25 06 Fan Rnk #4
D. McAllister NOS: 4 S.I. Rnk #27 & Rat 18.00 06 Fan Rnk #12
J. Addai IND: 4 S.I. Rnk #28 & Rat 18.50 06 Fan Rnk #14

Sleepers
As every summer begins and a new season approaches, owners everywhere want to know who the sleepers are. Sleepers are running backs who will primarily be drafted outside the top two rounds, yet will perform beyond their draft stock or expectations. Below is a brief list of 4 S.I. sleepers. All four running backs had projected 4 S.I. ratings of less than 16.00, nonetheless were not ranked in the pre-season 4 S.I. top 20. Three out of the four ended the season among the top 20 running backs in fantasy. Frequently sleepers are found on teams with a strong conviction to run the football or an emerging young back.

W. Parker PIT: 4 S.I. Rat 12.25 06 Fan Rnk #4
R. Bush NOS: 4 S.I. Rat 15.75 06 Fan Rnk #13
L. Betts WAS: 4 S.I. Rat 10.00 06 Fan Rnk #16
L. Maroney NEP: 4 S.I. Rat 13.25 06 Fan Rnk #28

Final Thoughts

The 4 S.I. did accurately project 41 of top 50 fantasy running backs in 2006. However, the 4 S.I. failed to project 50% of the top 10 running backs by season's end. Yes, 2006 was especially tough with so many running backs sharing time and several injuries to top end backs. The toughest part is accurately projecting the use of many of the backs. The influx of great rookie running back talent in 2006 turned the fantasy world upside down. From Reggie Bush’s 88 receptions, to Jones-Drew’s shocking 16 TDs, or even the newest weapon (Addai) of Peyton Manning rolling up 1,400 total yards. Rookies also brought forth several backs who have good outlooks: L. Maroney NEP, D. Williams CAR, J. Norwood ATL, and even L. Washington NYJ has long term potential in New York. Bush, Addai, and Jones-Drew may have brought pleasant surprises in 2006, while also bringing confusion to fantasy owners. Maroney, Williams, Norwood, and Washington more often than not, simply brought confusion. Situations in Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Dallas, and Tennessee further frustrated owners. As the reality of multiple backs continues to move forward in the NFL, the status of each running back ranked in the 4 S.I. becomes more important. Every summer, the most difficult job is trying to project who will get the touches. Running back by committee situations seem in many ways impossible to project. The salary cap era has created two back sets and several unproven guys stepping into a #1 role yearly.

While the accuracy of projecting a running backs touches and corresponding status is without question vastly important; the accuracy of the 4 S.I. is based on four implications. The exact science of each implication has been measured and studied precisely. The most precise is probably INJL, this implications involves the most information and factual analyzed data. The strike system used to champion a running back’s INJL is based from strong research and past statistical evidence. While the OFE and TDP are both formed based on my own statistical team projections. Both are difficult to project with injuries and personalities abounding throughout the league. The desire is for the team’s success that is reflected in the fantasy running back to be measured and then projected accurately. The most subjective or non-statistical implication is without question OLRB. The fourth and newest implication (new in ’06) is a team established and ranked OLRB. This implication is valuable and hard to project because unlike several other positions in football (virtually all) or the 4 S.I., offensive linemen are tough to evaluate statistically. Statistics are kept for pancake blocks, and sacks surrendered, but neither category demonstrates the success or failure of a run blocking line. Still OLRB is another essential piece of the 4 S.I. puzzle.

No matter how you slice it, the 4 S.I. of the RB position is an important tool fantasy fanatics should analyze before they draft their fantasy teams. The second major release of the FFMastermind.com Pre-Season Draft Guide is less than one week away (July 20), and the 4 S.I. of the RB Position article with comprehensive spreadsheets will be debuting within its pages. Smart fantasy owners have purchased this guide and are ready to reap its benefits. Hopefully, this look back at 2006 has shown you how important this type of analysis is and has convinced you to let FFMastermind.com do the work so you can more easily win that Fantasy Bowl trophy!