This month, I return to discuss more results of statistical projections for some of the more interesting fantasy players from the 2006 season. Take for instance, Chicago Bears QB Rex Grossman. Did he crash and burn, or was he really underrated? At the running back position, who in New York was forgotten? And a certain receiver in Dallas with a big mouth actually turned out to be cash money. The 2006 season was very interesting to say the least…

More Quarterbacks:

What is going on in the NFL? The tough, every game, every down, quarterback has been replaced by peanut brittle quarterbacks. Furthermore a media, fan, and coach culture has formed that starts screaming for the back up after week 3. The realities of weak and inconsistent offensive line play, in step with more running quarterbacks have further fed the disappearance of Favre-like quaterbacks. This has lead to disappointment in owning D. McNabb, D. Bledsoe, T. Green, D. Culpepper, C. Simms, J. Plummer, B. Leftwich, among others over the last 2-3 years. Thus it has become very difficult to make accurate quarterback projections. To a certain degree injuries are expected at a somewhat frequent rate at the running back position. The quarterback position though has held a standard of continuity and health for the most part. In response, last summer, I began to make quarterback projections, that included projecting games played. Though, this means a higher degree of accuracy, it may also manifest a higher degree of failure. A couple quarterbacks have a clear history of injury making it easier to project their games played. Bryon Leftwich of Jacksonville serves as a good example, he has never played 16 games during the regular season. Another implication in projecting a quarterbacks games played, involves that combination of a first or second year quarterback with a veteran. Last year had several examples, Matt Leinhart-Kurt Warner, Kerry Collins-Vince Young, and Jay Cutler-Jake Plummer. Its difficult to find a Quality Quarterback if he can’t stay on the field, below are one Quality Quarterback, two young guns, and one recent retiree. All four had a significant impact in fantasy leagues throughout the season. Here’s a rundown of how I thought they would perform in 2006, and their actual performance.

Undervalued: Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears
Predicted 06 Stats: 2,160 P yds 14 P TDs 17 INTs 45 Rs yds 0 Rs TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 3,193 P yds 23 P TDs 20 INTs 2 Rs yds 0 Rs TDs
Though I am about as far as you can't get from being a Grossman fan; I'll have to admit he had a productive fantasy season. Sure, statistically speaking the 20 INTs, 2 yards rushing, and 0 rushing TDs weren't spectacular. Sexy Rexy did pile up plenty more passing TDs and yards in '07 and certainly exceed my expectations. Though, I really undervalued Rex, I never actively pursued Grossman, primarily because he was so inconsistent. The numbers are crazy, Grossman had 7 games with 2 or more TD passes, in those games he threw 18 TD and only 1 INT. In the other 9 games he started in threw only 5 TDs and 19 INTs. In 2006 Grossman had an up and down year, and from the above numbers, his owners probably did also. And while I won't be drafting Rex in '07, he should warrant a 7th-9th round pick.

Cash Money: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
Predicted 06 Stats: 3,875 P yds 31 P TDs 15 INTs 40 Rs yds 0 Rs TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 4,035 P yds 28 P TDs 13 INTs 37 Rs yds 0 Rs TDs
CP fits perfectly into this category, because he is cash money fantasy football performer. In '07 Palmer had only 3 games in which he did not throw a TD. Ten of the sixteen games Palmer threw 2 TDs or more. Since 2005 Palmer has thrown 60 TDs and for nearly 8,000 yards. Palmer's consistency, talent, smarts, and determination were the reasons I projected Palmer to have another elite statistical season; this despite his '05 playoff injury. To no surprise he delivered. He should have another elite season in '07, though the suspension of WR-Chris Henry, will affect his numbers. In a brief study from the 2006 season, Palmer’s numbers did have a negative correlation when Henry was absent. Henry did not appear in 5 games in 2006, in those games Palmer threw 4 TDs. In Henry’s 11 appearances in 2006, Palmer threw 23 TDs. Palmer’s first 8 games of 2007 should be solid, though they may be slightly below the numbers we’ve become accustom to.

Crash and Burn: Jake Plummer, Denver Broncos
Predicted 06 Stats: 3,265 P yds 20 P TDs 11 INTs 120 Rs yds 2 Rs TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 1,994 P yds 11 P TDs 13 INTs 112 Rs yds 1 Rs TDs
Jake "the snake" Plummer 2006 destiny seemed to be sealed about 2-3 hours into the 2006 Draft. When the Denver Broncos selected QB-Jay Cutler from the University of Vanderbilt. At the moment that pick was made by Coach Mike Shanahan, Plummer's already weak mental state became highly sensitive and inconsistent. Then as the season began in 2006, a clear change was evident.

Forgotten: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Predicted 06 Stats: n/a
Actual 06 Stats: 2,903 P yds 19 P TDs 13 INTs 102 Rs yds 0 Rs TDs
Although QB-Drew Bledsoe is ancient, who could have foreseen the emergence of Romo from the Cowboys bench to become a Pro Bowler? But that's what happened and now the Big Tuna is gone, but Romo remains the starter. Go figure.


The Running Backs:

Though, the running back position is the central position in fantasy football, and a position of necessary production for every NFL team. The position is very difficult to truly project on a purest scale. We all know that five or six NFL starting running backs will go down at some point during the 2007 season. We know that we might never get true starting running back out of Denver, and that a Mike Martz coached offense is extremely unlikely to produce a 1,500 yard rusher. We also know that Herm Edwards will run the ball so excessively that his starting running back’s legs may actually fall off. The unfortunate reality is there are really very few guarantees in the NFL at the running back position. The few mentioned above are part of an exclusive list, and the crazy part is they’re not even guaranteed. In the salary cap era this in many ways has become the nature of the NFL as a whole. Sure the Eagles, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers, always have winning seasons, oh wait the Steelers weren’t in, in 2006. I think you get my drift, the few guarantee’s offered at the running back position make it one of the most difficult to project. Nevertheless, it is a must to include this position in my yearly projections. After all 18 or so of the first 24 picks in Fantasy drafts this summer will be spent on running backs. And everyone wants to know who will be the next Maurice Jones-Drew, or Marion Barber III. Below I look back at the 2006 season including the aforementioned Drew, and 3 others.

Undervalued: Maurice Jones-Drew ®, Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted 06 Stats: 500 rush yds 24 receptions 175 receiving yds 5 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 941 rush yds 46 receptions 436 receiving yds 14 TDs
Jones-Drew was dynamite at the college level however few NFL scouts thought he could be dynamite Sunday after Sunday in the NFL. Jones-Drew wasted little time proving many experts, analysts, and scouts wrong, breaking out in a dynamic way in 2006. His 14 TDs lead all rookies, and he nearly rushed for a thousand yards. His numbers are even more impressive when you consider he only had 212 touches. In fact, Fred Taylor, Jacksonville’s other running back had 254 touches. It’s extremely surprising for a running back with only 212 touches to have nearly 1,400 total yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs. Jones-Drew without a doubt has great things ahead in his career. Only time will tell if he can handle a 300-350 touches load over a season, if he can the numbers might get crazy.

Cash Money: Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings
Predicted 06 Stats: 1,285 rush yds 40 receptions 320 receiving yds 7 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 1,216 rush yds 42 receptions 288 receiving yds 6 TDs
Chester Taylor’s first season in Minnesota went pretty well considering that he has never been a #1 running back over an entire season. That changed quickly in 2006, when Taylor served as a serious workhorse with over 300 carries. Taylor’s ability and toughness came up huge for a football team whose defense and offensive line played very well. While the quarterback and wide receiver positions left a lot to be desired. In some ways that is what makes Taylor’s accomplishments so substantial, he virtually was the offense. No Vikings receiver had more than 655 receiving yards, 60 receptions, or 4 TDs. The off-season coaching change last season is one of the main reasons (along with the offensive line) that I notched Taylor for 1,600 total yards and 7 TDs in 2006. My projections were valued around the reality that Minnesota would have a bottom feeder offense that will feed Taylor the rock. Hopefully, for Chester’s sake Minnesota will find some playmakers on the outside and Tarvaris will improve significantly.

Crash and Burn: Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted 06 Stats: 1,400 rush yds 30 receptions 180 receiving yds 7 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 798 rush yds 30 receptions 196 receiving yds 1 TDs
The Caddy ran out of gas in 2006 not reaching 1,000 total yards from scrimmage and managing only 1 touchdown in an offense that really struggled at the quarterback and offensive line positions. Though I had Williams inked for 1,400 yards rushing it was mostly because I was not sure who else fit the mold of the trends to garner those numbers. This may sound like a cop-out, but honestly I did not have Williams on the roster of any of my six leagues in 2006. Sounds crazy I am sure considering the projections, right. Well, though my projections crashed and burned I was never very high on Williams. It was tough during the pre-season to find an upside to a Jon Gruden running back who rarely catches the football. Basically, it makes zero sense that I settled on 1,400 yards rushing for Williams in 2006. In Gruden’s time in Oakland and Tampa Bay, he has rarely had a consistently effective running game. Last year Tampa Bay did not have any offensive consistency. If the offense doesn’t make significant progress in 2007, Gruden will be gone.

Forgotten: Leon Washington ®, NY Jets
Predicted 06 Stats: n/a
Actual 06 Stats: 650 rush yds 25 receptions 270 receiving yds 4 TDs
Washington was far from a star running back in 2006, though he was a great utility player for much of the second half of the season. Teammates Kevin Barlow and Cedric Houston did each have more TDs than Washington. Washington though was one of many rookies’ running backs who made a strong impact on their team. Washington led the team in touches (176) and total yards from scrimmage (920). He had twice as many total yards from scrimmage as any other running back on the Jets roster. Washington took advantage of Curtis Martin’s injury/retirement, and Houston and Barlow’s lack of talent and motivation. Leon should be a great third down back in 2007, as Thomas Jones serves as the full-time starter. In 2007 though, Leon will not be forgotten.

The Wide Receivers:

My love for this position has yearly clouded my judgment. I often over project the overall positional numbers at the wide receiver position, because I just love wide receivers. In high school I was one myself though not very successful; my glory days came in pick up football games during my college years. I often dominated the old stadium in Manhattan, KS every Sunday like Marvin Harrison, with quick, specific, timing routes that are nearly impossible to defend, when guys are blitzing most of the time. Anyway, there are few things in football better than a sweet Harrison post-flag route, a Randy Moss deep ball, or Tory Holt post for a touchdown, with the safety coming over a tad late. Though, my passion for the position was a problem in the projections at the wide receiver position. Another problem occurred, wide receiver numbers were down in 2006. In the five seasons previous to 2006, there were never less than 20 wide receivers with 7 or more TDs. In 2006 there were only 18. In the last five seasons there have been 18 receivers with a 100 or more receptions; ’06 only Andre Johnson passed the century mark. From 2003-2005, 25 receivers caught 10 or more TDs in a season; 2006 only 5 achieved this feat. Statistically speaking wide receivers were not as successful as usual. Much of that may be due to the massive influx of young quarterbacks in the NFL. The end of the 2006 season saw the following quarterbacks starting; Matt Leinhart, Jay Cutler, Vince Young, Alex Smith, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Rex Grossman, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and even Tarvaris Jackson. A young quarterback means more interceptions and less continuity in the passing game. Hopefully come 2007 some of these guys games will improve, if not all the talent in the world won’t elevate some of their receivers to elite fantasy status.

Undervalued: Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns
Predicted 06 Stats: 30 receptions 430 receiving yds 2 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 61 receptions 884 receiving yds 6 TDs
Edwards rebounded nicely from his leg injury in the latter part of the 2005 season. He seems like an awesome candidate for an even more impressive breakout type campaign in ’07. Since, Edwards was coming of such a serious leg injury, it was shaky projecting his numbers. Most reports during training camp and pre-season had him returning sometime in week 8-9. Thus, I did not have much reason to think that Edwards’s numbers would be real strong; I thought he’d play 6-8 games in 2006. I was dead wrong Edwards played in all 16 games in 2006 and was very productive. Much of his future success will be determined during the training camp quarterback battle between Charlie Frye and Brady Quinn.

Cash Money: Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys
Predicted 06 Stats: 84 receptions 1,205 receiving yds 11 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 85 receptions 1,180 receiving yds 13 TDs
T.O. is a selfish punk, who loves any kind of attention. That said when he is on the field he has an opportunity to be dominate every game. His 13 TDs were awesome in 2006, and surprised me a little; I thought Witten and Glenn would have a few more TDs. Fortunately for T.O., Tony Romo flew in on his cape and constantly looked for Owens. While Bledsoe was more attached and comfortable with Terry Glenn, Romo went to Owens play after play. Most of the time T.O. delivered however as many of you may have noticed his skills are on the decline. He is still a top end NFL receiver, reality though is setting in T.O. is 34 this season. He’ll be productive this season, though you’d be foolish to expect 100 receptions, 1,400 yards, and 14 or more TDs.

Crash and Burn: Chris Chambers, Miami Dolphins
Predicted 06 Stats: 90 receptions 1,285 receiving yds 12 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 59 receptions 677 receiving yds 4 TDs
The Miami Dolphins were a complete dessert offensively in 2006. Culpepper was fumbling left and right, was unable to scramble, as the offensive line struggled mightily in protecting Daunte. As a result, Chambers and Culpepper never seem to gel like many of us thought they would. Chambers has great body control, hands, and a Cris Carter-like ability in the red-zone. The problem is too often his attitude infects his production. The frustrations concerning protection and Culpepper’s struggles really seem to saturate Chambers. His numbers fell far short of expectations in ’06. He was a player I really felt could take the next step with Daunte in ’06. Whether J. Beck, T. Green, or D. Culpepper is his quarterback in ’06 he has to find a way to fight off frustrations and focus on making plays.

Forgotten: Marques Colston ®, New Orleans Saints
Predicted 06 Stats: n/a
Actual 06 Stats: 70 receptions 1,038 receiving yds 8 TDs
Colston was a royal receiver in 2006, shocking the world with over a thousand yards receiving and 8 TDs. While those numbers are more than impressive for a rookie, be sure to consider that he didn’t play in 4 games in ’06. Had Colston played all 16 games its likely he would have caught 90 balls, for 1,300 yards, and 10 TDs. Awesome numbers for anyone, let alone a 7th round pick out of Hofstra. He benefited from a versatile offense with weapons all over the field. The Saints ability to spread the field and offer a defense so many options to worry about freed up Marques. He rarely saw double teams, with the Saints running game, Joe Horn and Reggie Bush challenging corners. Colston should put up better numbers this coming season, though it might only be a slight increase.

Looking ahead to 2007, who will be Undervalued, Cash Money, Crash and Burn, and Forgotten players? I'll be digging into that information for the FFMastermind.com Pre-Season Draft Guide later this summer. Until then, may all your fantasy picks be CASH MONEY!