Since the summer of the 2004 season, I have worked hard formulating annual statistical projections for around 200 players. During the spring and summer of 2006, I comprised statistical projections for nearly 250 players and all 32 NFL team defenses. The purpose of formulating these statistical projections is to gain a degree of accuracy on my instincts and the historical statistical data available. My hope is that through the formulation of these statistical projections I am able to better gauge the degree of aggression (or lack there of) that I will pursue certain players come draft day. The difficulty of this is that sometimes you can miss and I mean really miss. And when you bomb on a top player, you place a ton of pressure on the depth of your team. The nature of this is very similar to the NFL draft itself. While I’m not going to give you any suggestions for that upcoming event you can see NFL Draft and Rookie Specialist Perry Burr for awesome information and advice. I will state clearly that when you fail on a first round pick in NFL Draft (98’ QB-Ryan Leaf, SD) or in your Fantasy Draft (06’ RB-Lamont Jordan, Oak), your team could be in a ton of trouble quickly. That’s one of the main reasons that I do not suggest doing projections to most fantasy football owners. Unless you’re willing to spend around 100+ hours over the next 3-4 months leading to the NFL season.

The bottom-line is most individuals who are owners in fantasy football don’t want or have that kind of time. My recommendation is that you continue or begin, in some cases, to allow www.ffmastermind.com to do all the work for you. You might as well! We’re doing it anyways, and we’re doing it in a manner and accuracy that brings championships. If you doubt my word, take a look at the evidence through our testimonials and awards pages. I’ll be brief and honest in saying that I do more than just glance over players past statistics. I also account for overall league statistical trends (such as number of Quarterbacks with 25+ passing TDs a year), team trends, coaching trends, off-season changes, team continuity, and even the power of the mighty dollar. The thing that is frustrating is it is still the NFL, my friends, and it can be wildly unpredictable (another reason to let the experts handle it). Be honest. Besides the proud Hofstra alums out there, did anyone have WR Marques Colston, NO with 1,038 yards receiving and 8 TDs? And he sat out parts of 4+ games due to injury. Regardless, the beauty in this business of statistical projections is when you hit a home run on a top 5 player, you score in a big way. Since chances are, he’s on your team in multiple leagues.

In my humble opinion, people can stand committed to something they believe in, but whether or not they’re still standing there in the end, come success or failure, truly determines their resolve and integrity. This off-season review reflects a brief sampling and summary of the nearly 250 player statistics I projected for the 2006 season. As you’ll quickly see some were cash money, while others nosedived like WR Chris Henry’s, Cin fantasy draft stock recently did.

The 2006 addition of the Looking Back series starts with a subtle, yet important position on your fantasy roster: the Tight Ends. These rather large, agile (most of the time), and athletic receivers/blockers are one of the easier of the positions to project. Mostly, because there aren’t more than 20-30 who have a legitimate shot at making any sort of a fantasy impact. The ease of projecting this position is also in part do to the range of the statistics that we’ve seen at the position over the last 5+ years. I am 99% positive no tight end this season will have 110 receptions for 1,500 yards and 13 TDs. Simply put, it just doesn’t happen. This helps in reigning in the total statistical focus of the position. Furthermore, tight ends fantasy impact is rarely and almost never impacted by them running the football or in the return game. Thus, it is easier to predict their numbers.

Tight Ends

Undervalued: Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons
Projected 06 Stats: 60 receptions 670 receiving yds 5 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 56 receptions 780 receiving yds 8 TDs
Though this might be a bit of a stretch for an “undervalued” player seeing that I was only 4 rec, 110 yards, and 3 TDs off, I still failed to project his numbers to the degree of accuracy that I desire. All in all I was around 23 fantasy points short on Agle in ’06. And though the tight end position is the easiest to project, projection inaccuracy has less leeway. For instance, 23 points is the difference between the #4 and #11 rated tight ends from 2006. The reason I came up short on Crumpler was primarily because I was concerned with the off-season surgery he had last season. I also thought that to some extent Atlanta WR Michael Jenkins, and WR Roddy White might produce some numbers.

Cash Money: Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs
Projected 06 Stats: 76 receptions 840 receiving yds 5 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 73 receptions 900 receiving yds 5 TDs
It’s always awesome when you get a strike in bowling, but it’s even better when you get it on your league night in front of your buddies. Since, I’m a lifelong and die-heart Chiefs fan this cash money selection is even more valuable for local arguments and smack. Tony-G has been one of the most consistent performers in the league the last 8 years. In that time span he has never had less than 60 receptions or 773 yards. And when his numbers took a significant dip from ’04 to ’05 many individuals believed it was a one-time deal. I disagreed, and still do at this point in Tony’s career. It’s going to be really tough for him to get much more than 80rec-900yds-6tds, as Tony is not in the offense or shape he once was. Tight ends historically tend to struggle a lot into their 30s, much more than wide receivers do. I’d look for Tony-G to have similar numbers in 2007, but don’t hold me to it, it’s only April.

Crash and Burn: Benjamin Waston, New England Patriots
Projected 06 Stats: 64 receptions 690 receiving yds 8 TDs
Actual 06 Stats: 49 receptions 643 receiving yds 3 TDs
Benjamin, Benjamin, what a great and mighty name. It means “son of the right hand” in the Bible. And I was hoping and projecting that with the absence of WR Deion Branch and WR David Givens from the Patriots 2006 roster, that Benjamin would fulfill the scriptures and become Brady’s right hand man. Unfortunately, like nearly all of the Patriots’ wide receivers and tight ends, he failed to do so. And quite miserably I might add. While the receiving yards were only 47 high (about 2.5 fan points), the 15 missing receptions and most importantly 5 reception touchdowns killed me. I had Waston as my starting tight end in 3 leagues in 2006, and he really disappointed. I truly thought he would bring about a touchdown every other game to the table and a top 5 finish within his position. However, I was wrong. He still has a sweet name though.

Forgotten: Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears
Projected 06 Stats: n/a
Actual 06 Stats: 45 receptions 626 receiving yds 6 TDs
Desmond Clark, like other tights ends’ athleticism, has never been in question. He has good size (6’3 254) and most of the times soft hands. However, his work ethic and progression in route running and consistency has been in question most of his career. Guys, we’re certain this guy had some kind of upside; otherwise its doubtful Mike Shanahan would have drafted him in 1999. In ’06 all those intangibles that Desmond has rose to the surface. Though I was surprised by his year (partly because of QB-Rex Grossman), I can’t say I am shocked. After all, in his third season in the league back in ’01 with the Broncos Clark had 51rec-566yds-6tds. Nevertheless, I did not even project his statistics last summer. Though I’m not selling him as a top 8 tight end for 2007, he can certainly be a quality back-up on your roster come September.

If you enjoyed the ups and downs of the projecting process or you just like to watch people fail, you’ll definitely want to checkout Part II of the Looking Back: 2006 Statistical Projections series. I’ll be breaking down my 20-20 hindsight on four signal callers as well as the other key skill positions. In the meantime, why don't you check out what we'll be offering the fantasy fanatic later this June in our premium Pre-Season Draft Guide.