Editor's Note: The following is the QUARTERBACK portion of John Holler's annual "Hangin' in the Red Zone" article that appears exclusively in the 2007 FFMastermind.com Pre-Season Draft Guide. If you like what you see and want to see similar information for RBs, WRs, and TEs, you'll want to ORDER this guide. The "living" document will grow to approx. 500 pages and also includes customizeable cheatsheets and costs only $18.95. Enjoy this preview...
Of all the statistics
that are used in the NFL to determine the value of a player,
one of the most important is when the expectation is that
the team going to score – when they hit the proverbial
Red Zone.
The Red Zone,
in NFL terms, is any time a team gets inside the opponents’
20-yard line. For fantasy purposes, however, it must be
altered. While the passing game Red Zone remains inside
the 20 – any time your quarterback drops to pass in
the Red Zone it can be hoped he will throw a touchdown.
But for running backs, even LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t
expected to score if he takes a handoff on the 10- or 15-yard
line. While he often does, it isn’t the expectation
of the play-calling. For that reason, we view the running
back Red Zone as the 5-yard line for carries. If anyone
gets a handoff from the 5-yard line in, the play is designed
to spring open for a touchdown, so in the pages that follow,
keep in mind the differential of the two red zones in question.
On a final note,
when it comes to receiving in the Red Zone, it is often
just as important or more important to see the number of
times a player was targeted. Even if he doesn’t have
a legitimate chance to catch the ball, it is the intent
of the play – the QB locked in on that receiver and
trying to force the ball in – that is as important
as the number of catches or touchdowns. A QB’s confidence
in tight situations tends to show who his go-to guys are.
With that out
of the way, here is our Hangin’ In the Red Zone 2007
analysis.
THE QUARTERBACKS
BY THE NUMBERS
Red Zone Passing 2004-2006
Player
ATT-CM-YD-TD-INT
Peyton Manning
237-139-1016-70-6
Carson Palmer
228-135-975-49-6
Brett Favre
220-111-775-41-8
Tom Brady
215-126-887-58-4
Marc Bulger
176-103-770-40-5
Jake Delhomme
172-95-699-47-3
Drew Brees
171-99-828-46-6
Drew Bledsoe
166-87-654-37-4
Eli Manning
165-82-553-36-5
Matt Hasselbeck
160-85-654-40-4
Jake Plummer
158-82-554-37-5
Steve McNair
151-83-597-30-5
Trent Green
150-88-637-26-5
Kerry Collins
149-71-534-21-4
Ben Roethlisberger 148-84-611-54-5
David Carr
147-81-546-28-4
Michael Vick
145-77-567-37-6
Daunte Culpepper 137-80-556-30-5
Donovan McNabb
134-84-571-40-3
Aaron Brooks
132-63-478-25-7
Red Zone Passing 2006 Season
Player
ATT-CM-YD-TD-INT
Brett Favre
85-32-205-10-4
Marc Bulger
84-50-340-21-0
Peyton Manning
82-47-339-24-2
Tom Brady
81-44-330-18-0
Carson Palmer
80-48-321-17-3
Ben Roethlisberger
70-37-275-12-5
Steve McNair
66-35-223-10-2
Alex Smith
61-32-223-10-1
Jon Kitna
59-35-246-13-2
Rex Grossman
59-31-224-12-1
Eli Manning
57-31-199-15-0
Drew Brees
56-25-159-10-2
Chad Pennington
51-26-166-8-2
Brad Johnson
50-25-177-5-2
Philip Rivers
49-32-228-12-0
Tony Romo
49-30-187-12-2
David Carr
46-26-142-8-1
Michael Vick
46-25-187-15-3
Vince Young
44-21-187-9-1
Matt Hasselbeck
44-17-144-11-1
What the Numbers Tell Us
* Peyton Manning is the man and only one QB (Tom Brady)
is within 22 touchdowns of his total over the last three
years.
* Nobody was as efficient as Mark Bulger in 2006, completing
50 of 84 passes with 21 touchdowns and no picks.
* Brett Favre was awful in the Red Zone in 2006 and the
worst completion percentage of any top QB despite throwing
the most passes.
* Tom Brady is becoming a more complete quarterback in Red
Zone production.
* Without Jerome Bettis, Ben Roethlisberger took on a much
bigger role in the Red Zone offense – and threw more
picks than any QB in the league.
* While Eli Manning makes a lot of mistakes, he had no Red
Zone picks last year.
* Had Tony Romo played the entire season, his Red Zone numbers
would have been phenomenal.
* Drew Brees didn’t even complete 50 percent of his
Red Zone passes in his first year with the Saints.
* Michael Vick became a pocket passer in the Red Zone last
year, throwing 15 TDs, as opposed to 22 combined the two
previous seasons.
* Philip Rivers didn’t have a Red Zone pick all last
year.
And now to the RUNNING BACKS...